Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-geo-001 (high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-21T07:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B-crude_oil-01 |
Brent crude futures have an upside bias over the next 6 hours as Iran-linked maritime disruption / enforcement risks keep perceived supply risk elevated. |
67 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
63 |
| crude_oil |
B-crude_oil-02 |
Over the next 24 hours, volatility remains elevated with upside skew, but the thesis is fragile and can reverse quickly on credible de-escalation / re-opening signals. |
60 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
63 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260421T070000Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-crude_oil-01",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Brent crude futures have an upside bias over the next 6 hours as Iran-linked maritime disruption / enforcement risks keep perceived supply risk elevated.",
"probability_pct": 67,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Geopolitical disruption / blockade enforcement narratives concentrated around Iran maritime flows",
"Sanctions / enforcement escalation framing",
"Multiple short-window corroborations across diverse domains (though tier mix is D-heavy)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Isolated/low-diversity supply-expansion or capacity signals (single-source VIP items)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude_oil-02",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, volatility remains elevated with upside skew, but the thesis is fragile and can reverse quickly on credible de-escalation / re-opening signals.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Event-driven risk premium dynamics (headline sensitivity)",
"Crowded narrative reinforcement (many repeats) with limited hard-flow confirmation in this feed"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Thin but present macro-demand / recession-risk framing in VIP lane",
"Potential supply offset narratives (capacity expansion) are low-confidence and not yet corroborated"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-crude_oil-01",
"B-crude_oil-02"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 12,
"B": 4,
"C": 2,
"D": 82,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_count": 9,
"fresh_6_24h_count": 7,
"stale_24_72h_count": 0,
"stale_72h_plus_count": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-geo-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"level": "high",
"description": "Event-driven geopolitical supply disruption framing dominates; price reaction can gap on incremental headlines."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-authority-mix-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"level": "medium",
"description": "Directional mass is broad, but the evidence mix is heavily low-tier (D) which increases narrative-whipsaw risk vs confirmed flow/official detail."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-reversal-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"level": "medium",
"description": "Reversal risk is elevated because the catalyst set is headline-sensitive; absence of explicit fresh counterevidence keeps it below 'high'."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain a long-bias watch while the 1h directional score stays >= +20 and fresh evidence continues (>=2 independent fresh items per hour).",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias"
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Volatility watch until headline flow slows and the contradiction ratio remains <= 0.15 for 3+ hours.",
"action_label": "volatility_watch"
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Reversal watch if 2+ independent fresh opposing signals arrive within 2 hours OR if the 1h directional score drops below +20 with rising contradiction.",
"action_label": "reversal_watch"
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 20,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 67,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 67,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 72,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 78,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 78,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 82,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 82,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 85,
"bullish_pressure_score": 85,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 85,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 85,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"State-change computed with unknown prior state; emitted 'unchanged' to avoid assuming prior direction.",
"Directional mapping interprets dominant supply-disruption / sanctions-enforcement narratives as upward price pressure for crude oil, despite many items carrying 'negative' risk sentiment labels."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}