Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-geo-001 (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-21T07:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-crude_oil-01 Brent crude futures have an upside bias over the next 6 hours as Iran-linked maritime disruption / enforcement risks keep perceived supply risk elevated. 67 up accelerating 6h false 63
crude_oil B-crude_oil-02 Over the next 24 hours, volatility remains elevated with upside skew, but the thesis is fragile and can reverse quickly on credible de-escalation / re-opening signals. 60 mixed stable 24h false 63

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260421T070000Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-01",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Brent crude futures have an upside bias over the next 6 hours as Iran-linked maritime disruption / enforcement risks keep perceived supply risk elevated.",
 "probability_pct": 67,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Geopolitical disruption / blockade enforcement narratives concentrated around Iran maritime flows",
 "Sanctions / enforcement escalation framing",
 "Multiple short-window corroborations across diverse domains (though tier mix is D-heavy)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Isolated/low-diversity supply-expansion or capacity signals (single-source VIP items)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-02",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, volatility remains elevated with upside skew, but the thesis is fragile and can reverse quickly on credible de-escalation / re-opening signals.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Event-driven risk premium dynamics (headline sensitivity)",
 "Crowded narrative reinforcement (many repeats) with limited hard-flow confirmation in this feed"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Thin but present macro-demand / recession-risk framing in VIP lane",
 "Potential supply offset narratives (capacity expansion) are low-confidence and not yet corroborated"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-crude_oil-01",
 "B-crude_oil-02"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 12,
 "B": 4,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 82,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_count": 9,
 "fresh_6_24h_count": 7,
 "stale_24_72h_count": 0,
 "stale_72h_plus_count": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-geo-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "level": "high",
 "description": "Event-driven geopolitical supply disruption framing dominates; price reaction can gap on incremental headlines."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-authority-mix-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "level": "medium",
 "description": "Directional mass is broad, but the evidence mix is heavily low-tier (D) which increases narrative-whipsaw risk vs confirmed flow/official detail."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-reversal-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "level": "medium",
 "description": "Reversal risk is elevated because the catalyst set is headline-sensitive; absence of explicit fresh counterevidence keeps it below 'high'."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain a long-bias watch while the 1h directional score stays >= +20 and fresh evidence continues (>=2 independent fresh items per hour).",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias"
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Volatility watch until headline flow slows and the contradiction ratio remains <= 0.15 for 3+ hours.",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Reversal watch if 2+ independent fresh opposing signals arrive within 2 hours OR if the 1h directional score drops below +20 with rising contradiction.",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch"
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 },
 {
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 },
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 },
 {
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 20,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 67,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 67,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 78,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 78,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 82,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 82,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 85,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 85,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 85,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 85,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 4,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "State-change computed with unknown prior state; emitted 'unchanged' to avoid assuming prior direction.",
 "Directional mapping interprets dominant supply-disruption / sanctions-enforcement narratives as upward price pressure for crude oil, despite many items carrying 'negative' risk sentiment labels."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}