Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures (U3O8)
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: headline_whipsaw_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-04-20 15:05 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-01 Uranium (U3O8) futures directional bias remains upward over the next 6–24h as demand-expansion narratives (nuclear build/SMR acceleration, energy-security framing) and supply-risk framing dominate the recent corpus. 63% up accelerating 24h false 48
uranium B-UR-02 Near-term uranium futures are likely to exhibit elevated volatility (headline sensitivity) driven by geopolitical nuclear-negotiation and policy headlines, even if the net directional bias remains upward. 67% mixed stable 6h false 48

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_uranium_20260420T150500Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-20T15:05:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures (U3O8)",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-01",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Uranium (U3O8) futures directional bias remains upward over the next 6\u201324h as demand-expansion narratives (nuclear build/SMR acceleration, energy-security framing) and supply-risk framing dominate the recent corpus.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Nuclear power expansion / buildout reinforcement (IAEA + broader expansion discourse)",
 "Regulatory reform / acceleration signals (NRC / US policy reform narratives)",
 "Incremental demand framing tied to energy-security and AI/power-infrastructure narratives",
 "Supply constraint / supply-risk framing (producer constraints / geopolitical supply uncertainty)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Fresh scepticism narratives about pace/feasibility of nuclear targets in some regions (demand-growth timing risk)",
 "Headline-driven geopolitical noise that can flip sentiment rapidly without direct spot-market confirmation"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-02",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Near-term uranium futures are likely to exhibit elevated volatility (headline sensitivity) driven by geopolitical nuclear-negotiation and policy headlines, even if the net directional bias remains upward.",
 "probability_pct": 67,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Geopolitical nuclear-negotiation headline flow (rapid sentiment oscillation risk)",
 "Policy/regulatory headline clustering (multiple jurisdictions; uneven authority mix)",
 "Crowded narrative channels / amplification dynamics (high propagation breadth with mixed-tier sources)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If headline cadence drops materially, volatility premium may fade quickly"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-01",
 "B-UR-02"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 23,
 "B": 13,
 "C": 10,
 "D": 554,
 "U": 0,
 "note": "Approximate aggregate across admitted trend/VIP evidence bundles; tier totals are not de-duplicated across trends."
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": "high",
 "fresh_6_24h_est": "medium",
 "fresh_24_72h_est": "medium",
 "stale_gt_72h_est": "low",
 "note": "Estimated from evidence_recency_proxy spans and sample newest timestamps; per-record timestamps not fully available in 6B input."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Geopolitical nuclear-negotiation and policy headlines are dense and fast-moving; could cause sharp sentiment swings despite net bullish bias."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "mixed_authority_amplification",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of amplification sits in lower-tier domains; increases fragility vs a clean Tier-A-only tape."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "demand_timing_counterpressure",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Some fresh narratives question feasibility/timing of nuclear targets (potential near-term demand pacing risk)."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If bullish directional_score_signed stays >= +30 for 3+ consecutive 1h buckets while contradiction_ratio remains <= 0.35."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction_ratio rises >= 0.45 within 2 hours OR bearish_pressure_score spikes above 55 while bullish_pressure_score remains > 55."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If two or more independent fresh opposing signals (<=2h) appear and net directional_score_signed drops below +10."
 },
 {
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional_score_signed stays between -10 and +10 for 6 consecutive 1h buckets (rangebound regime confirmation)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 49,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 53,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 53,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 22,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No trend_physics v2 fields were present in the provided 5B payload; 6B used proxy indicators (velocity_hint, recency proxies, authority tier mix, evidence counts) for scoring.",
 "Interpretation is for uranium futures directional sentiment only; no live pricing inputs were used."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}