Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures (U3O8)
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: headline_whipsaw_risk
- generated_at: 2026-04-20 15:05 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-UR-01 | Uranium (U3O8) futures directional bias remains upward over the next 6–24h as demand-expansion narratives (nuclear build/SMR acceleration, energy-security framing) and supply-risk framing dominate the recent corpus. | 63% | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 48 |
| uranium | B-UR-02 | Near-term uranium futures are likely to exhibit elevated volatility (headline sensitivity) driven by geopolitical nuclear-negotiation and policy headlines, even if the net directional bias remains upward. | 67% | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 48 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_uranium_20260420T150500Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-20T15:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures (U3O8)",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-01",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Uranium (U3O8) futures directional bias remains upward over the next 6\u201324h as demand-expansion narratives (nuclear build/SMR acceleration, energy-security framing) and supply-risk framing dominate the recent corpus.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Nuclear power expansion / buildout reinforcement (IAEA + broader expansion discourse)",
"Regulatory reform / acceleration signals (NRC / US policy reform narratives)",
"Incremental demand framing tied to energy-security and AI/power-infrastructure narratives",
"Supply constraint / supply-risk framing (producer constraints / geopolitical supply uncertainty)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fresh scepticism narratives about pace/feasibility of nuclear targets in some regions (demand-growth timing risk)",
"Headline-driven geopolitical noise that can flip sentiment rapidly without direct spot-market confirmation"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-02",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term uranium futures are likely to exhibit elevated volatility (headline sensitivity) driven by geopolitical nuclear-negotiation and policy headlines, even if the net directional bias remains upward.",
"probability_pct": 67,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Geopolitical nuclear-negotiation headline flow (rapid sentiment oscillation risk)",
"Policy/regulatory headline clustering (multiple jurisdictions; uneven authority mix)",
"Crowded narrative channels / amplification dynamics (high propagation breadth with mixed-tier sources)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If headline cadence drops materially, volatility premium may fade quickly"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-01",
"B-UR-02"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 23,
"B": 13,
"C": 10,
"D": 554,
"U": 0,
"note": "Approximate aggregate across admitted trend/VIP evidence bundles; tier totals are not de-duplicated across trends."
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": "high",
"fresh_6_24h_est": "medium",
"fresh_24_72h_est": "medium",
"stale_gt_72h_est": "low",
"note": "Estimated from evidence_recency_proxy spans and sample newest timestamps; per-record timestamps not fully available in 6B input."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Geopolitical nuclear-negotiation and policy headlines are dense and fast-moving; could cause sharp sentiment swings despite net bullish bias."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "mixed_authority_amplification",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of amplification sits in lower-tier domains; increases fragility vs a clean Tier-A-only tape."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "demand_timing_counterpressure",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Some fresh narratives question feasibility/timing of nuclear targets (potential near-term demand pacing risk)."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If bullish directional_score_signed stays >= +30 for 3+ consecutive 1h buckets while contradiction_ratio remains <= 0.35."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction_ratio rises >= 0.45 within 2 hours OR bearish_pressure_score spikes above 55 while bullish_pressure_score remains > 55."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If two or more independent fresh opposing signals (<=2h) appear and net directional_score_signed drops below +10."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If directional_score_signed stays between -10 and +10 for 6 consecutive 1h buckets (rangebound regime confirmation)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 49,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 49,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 53,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 22,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No trend_physics v2 fields were present in the provided 5B payload; 6B used proxy indicators (velocity_hint, recency proxies, authority tier mix, evidence counts) for scoring.",
"Interpretation is for uranium futures directional sentiment only; no live pricing inputs were used."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}