Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: uranium
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-URN-001 (narrative_whipsaw, medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-20T07:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-URN-001 Net demand narrative (nuclear expansion + SMR/advanced reactor policy momentum + energy security framing) is supportive for uranium futures over the next 24 hours. 62 up accelerating 24h false 57
uranium B-URN-002 Near-term regulatory/policy cadence around civil nuclear build-out is contributing to incremental bullish pressure into the next 6–24 hours. 58 up stable 6h false 57
uranium B-URN-003 Geopolitical nuclear-negotiation/stockpile headlines are adding two-sided uncertainty (risk-on/risk-off) that can cap follow-through and raise reversal/whipsaw risk in the next 6 hours. 48 mixed fading 6h false 57

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_uranium_2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-URN-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Net demand narrative (nuclear expansion + SMR/advanced reactor policy momentum + energy security framing) is supportive for uranium futures over the next 24 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "reactor_demand",
 "nuclear_policy",
 "nuclear_innovation",
 "energy_security"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-URN-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-URN-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Near-term regulatory/policy cadence around civil nuclear build-out is contributing to incremental bullish pressure into the next 6\u201324 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "nuclear_policy",
 "nuclear_innovation"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-URN-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-URN-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Geopolitical nuclear-negotiation/stockpile headlines are adding two-sided uncertainty (risk-on/risk-off) that can cap follow-through and raise reversal/whipsaw risk in the next 6 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 48,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "uranium_supply_contracting"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-URN-001",
 "B-URN-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 71,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-URN-001",
 "B-URN-002",
 "B-URN-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 25,
 "B": 15,
 "C": 20,
 "D": 440,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 46,
 "fresh_6_24h": 112,
 "fresh_24_72h": 292,
 "stale_gt_72h": 50
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-URN-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Simultaneous pro-nuclear build-out signals and geopolitical nuclear-negotiation headlines keep near-term directional follow-through vulnerable to headline flips."
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-URN-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Some supportive nuclear/SMR narratives persist from >72h evidence; downweighted versus the most recent cycle."
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-URN-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "source_authority_skew_low_tier",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of coverage is lower-tier/secondary sources; treat conviction as moderate rather than high."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain long-bias watch if next 6h buckets remain >= +20 directional_score_signed and contradiction_ratio stays <= 0.45."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if 2+ independent fresh geopolitical nuclear-negotiation items arrive inside 2h and directional_score_signed drops by >= 15 points."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if directional_score_signed crosses below +10 (neutralisation) with rising contradiction_ratio."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 48,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 48,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 49,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 52,
 "net_sentiment_score": -4,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 54,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 53,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 51,
 "net_sentiment_score": -2,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 49,
 "net_sentiment_score": 1,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 48,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 44,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -8,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 1,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 2,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as uranium.",
 "Prior state not provided (trend_state_memory absent); state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown prior."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}