Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: uranium
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-URN-001 (narrative_whipsaw, medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-20T07:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| uranium |
B-URN-001 |
Net demand narrative (nuclear expansion + SMR/advanced reactor policy momentum + energy security framing) is supportive for uranium futures over the next 24 hours. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
57 |
| uranium |
B-URN-002 |
Near-term regulatory/policy cadence around civil nuclear build-out is contributing to incremental bullish pressure into the next 6–24 hours. |
58 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
57 |
| uranium |
B-URN-003 |
Geopolitical nuclear-negotiation/stockpile headlines are adding two-sided uncertainty (risk-on/risk-off) that can cap follow-through and raise reversal/whipsaw risk in the next 6 hours. |
48 |
mixed |
fading |
6h |
false |
57 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_uranium_2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-URN-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Net demand narrative (nuclear expansion + SMR/advanced reactor policy momentum + energy security framing) is supportive for uranium futures over the next 24 hours.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"reactor_demand",
"nuclear_policy",
"nuclear_innovation",
"energy_security"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-URN-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-URN-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term regulatory/policy cadence around civil nuclear build-out is contributing to incremental bullish pressure into the next 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"nuclear_policy",
"nuclear_innovation"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-URN-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-URN-003",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Geopolitical nuclear-negotiation/stockpile headlines are adding two-sided uncertainty (risk-on/risk-off) that can cap follow-through and raise reversal/whipsaw risk in the next 6 hours.",
"probability_pct": 48,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"uranium_supply_contracting"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-URN-001",
"B-URN-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 71,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-URN-001",
"B-URN-002",
"B-URN-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 25,
"B": 15,
"C": 20,
"D": 440,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 46,
"fresh_6_24h": 112,
"fresh_24_72h": 292,
"stale_gt_72h": 50
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_id": "RF-URN-001",
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Simultaneous pro-nuclear build-out signals and geopolitical nuclear-negotiation headlines keep near-term directional follow-through vulnerable to headline flips."
},
{
"risk_id": "RF-URN-002",
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Some supportive nuclear/SMR narratives persist from >72h evidence; downweighted versus the most recent cycle."
},
{
"risk_id": "RF-URN-003",
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "source_authority_skew_low_tier",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of coverage is lower-tier/secondary sources; treat conviction as moderate rather than high."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain long-bias watch if next 6h buckets remain >= +20 directional_score_signed and contradiction_ratio stays <= 0.45."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if 2+ independent fresh geopolitical nuclear-negotiation items arrive inside 2h and directional_score_signed drops by >= 15 points."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if directional_score_signed crosses below +10 (neutralisation) with rising contradiction_ratio."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 49,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 52,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 54,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 53,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 51,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 49,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 44,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -8,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 2,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as uranium.",
"Prior state not provided (trend_state_memory absent); state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown prior."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}