Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-NG-DRIVER-MISMATCH
  • generated_at: 2026-04-20T06:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term natgas price sentiment is biased upward as LNG-related supply/delivery disruption risk and energy-security risk premium dominates recent narrative flow. 60 up accelerating 6h false 68
natural_gas B-NG-002 Over the next 24h, natgas sentiment remains net-positive but increasingly fragile because the dominant evidence is geopolitics-led (cross-commodity) rather than Henry Hub-specific fundamentals, making reversals more likely on de-escalation headlines. 55 up stable 24h false 68

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-20260420T063000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-20T06:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term natgas price sentiment is biased upward as LNG-related supply/delivery disruption risk and energy-security risk premium dominates recent narrative flow.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "lng_export_flows",
 "energy_geopolitics",
 "supply_chain_disruption"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Signals suggesting de-escalation / resumption of tanker transits (weakly corroborated, single-source cluster).",
 "Natgas-specific fundamentals (weather/storage/production) are under-represented in admitted evidence, increasing thesis fragility."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, natgas sentiment remains net-positive but increasingly fragile because the dominant evidence is geopolitics-led (cross-commodity) rather than Henry Hub-specific fundamentals, making reversals more likely on de-escalation headlines.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_geopolitics",
 "lng_export_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Any confirmed easing of shipping restrictions / conflict intensity can quickly compress the risk premium."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 42,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 62,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 3,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 50,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_evidence_dominance": "moderate",
 "fresh_window_hours": 24,
 "fresh_signal_count_est": 7,
 "stale_signal_count_est": 2
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-DRIVER-MISMATCH",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "level": "high",
 "description": "Directional bias is supported mainly by geopolitics/shipping/LNG narrative rather than natgas fundamentals (weather/storage/production), increasing fragility."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-NARRATIVE-WHIPSAW",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "level": "medium",
 "description": "Rapid headline-driven shifts (de-escalation vs escalation) can flip near-term sentiment without new fundamental data."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-LOW-AUTHORITY-SHARE",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "level": "medium",
 "description": "Admitted evidence includes substantial low-tier amplification; authority confirmation exists but is not dominant."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If LNG disruption / energy-security headlines persist or accelerate through the next 6h without credible de-escalation signals.",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias"
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If intraday headline cadence remains high (shipping restrictions / sanctions / conflict escalation), implying elevated volatility risk.",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If credible de-escalation / resumed transit confirmations appear and begin to dominate the freshest window (<6h).",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If natgas-specific fundamentals remain absent and signals become purely cross-commodity geopolitical noise.",
 "action_label": "stay_flat"
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T06:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T07:00:00Z",
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 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
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 {
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 5,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 1,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Admitted natural_gas evidence is LNG/geopolitics-weighted; natgas-specific fundamentals were not prominent in surviving trend set.",
 "No explicit contradiction set present in input; reversal risk is driven by headline whipsaw potential rather than detected counterevidence mass."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}