Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-NG-DRIVER-MISMATCH
- generated_at: 2026-04-20T06:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Near-term natgas price sentiment is biased upward as LNG-related supply/delivery disruption risk and energy-security risk premium dominates recent narrative flow. | 60 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 68 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-002 | Over the next 24h, natgas sentiment remains net-positive but increasingly fragile because the dominant evidence is geopolitics-led (cross-commodity) rather than Henry Hub-specific fundamentals, making reversals more likely on de-escalation headlines. | 55 | up | stable | 24h | false | 68 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-20260420T063000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-20T06:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term natgas price sentiment is biased upward as LNG-related supply/delivery disruption risk and energy-security risk premium dominates recent narrative flow.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"lng_export_flows",
"energy_geopolitics",
"supply_chain_disruption"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Signals suggesting de-escalation / resumption of tanker transits (weakly corroborated, single-source cluster).",
"Natgas-specific fundamentals (weather/storage/production) are under-represented in admitted evidence, increasing thesis fragility."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, natgas sentiment remains net-positive but increasingly fragile because the dominant evidence is geopolitics-led (cross-commodity) rather than Henry Hub-specific fundamentals, making reversals more likely on de-escalation headlines.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_geopolitics",
"lng_export_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Any confirmed easing of shipping restrictions / conflict intensity can quickly compress the risk premium."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 42,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 62,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 3,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 50,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_evidence_dominance": "moderate",
"fresh_window_hours": 24,
"fresh_signal_count_est": 7,
"stale_signal_count_est": 2
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-DRIVER-MISMATCH",
"market": "natural_gas",
"level": "high",
"description": "Directional bias is supported mainly by geopolitics/shipping/LNG narrative rather than natgas fundamentals (weather/storage/production), increasing fragility."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-NARRATIVE-WHIPSAW",
"market": "natural_gas",
"level": "medium",
"description": "Rapid headline-driven shifts (de-escalation vs escalation) can flip near-term sentiment without new fundamental data."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-LOW-AUTHORITY-SHARE",
"market": "natural_gas",
"level": "medium",
"description": "Admitted evidence includes substantial low-tier amplification; authority confirmation exists but is not dominant."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If LNG disruption / energy-security headlines persist or accelerate through the next 6h without credible de-escalation signals.",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias"
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If intraday headline cadence remains high (shipping restrictions / sanctions / conflict escalation), implying elevated volatility risk.",
"action_label": "volatility_watch"
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If credible de-escalation / resumed transit confirmations appear and begin to dominate the freshest window (<6h).",
"action_label": "reversal_watch"
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If natgas-specific fundamentals remain absent and signals become purely cross-commodity geopolitical noise.",
"action_label": "stay_flat"
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
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"velocity_score": 0,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
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{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
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{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
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},
{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 5,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 1,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Admitted natural_gas evidence is LNG/geopolitics-weighted; natgas-specific fundamentals were not prominent in surviving trend set.",
"No explicit contradiction set present in input; reversal risk is driven by headline whipsaw potential rather than detected counterevidence mass."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}