- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: low_authority_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-04-20T15:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
B-LI-001 |
Lithium futures skew upward over the next 24h as supply-chain tightness and renewed EV/battery buildout narratives keep bid pressure elevated (incl. lithium carbonate price-surge framing and critical-minerals urgency). |
63 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
58 |
| lithium |
B-LI-002 |
Upside is fragile: demand-side softening signals (EV OEM delivery/earnings stress) and 'price surge disrupts battery market' framing increase the chance of a pullback or stall within 24h. |
47 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_lithium_2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Lithium futures skew upward over the next 24h as supply-chain tightness and renewed EV/battery buildout narratives keep bid pressure elevated (incl. lithium carbonate price-surge framing and critical-minerals urgency).",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Lithium carbonate price-surge / tightness narrative surfacing across multiple sources",
"Critical minerals / strategic supply-chain positioning (EV OEM + upstream lithium references)",
"Mining/refining capacity and DLE/technology-investment narratives adding incremental upside bias"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Upside is fragile: demand-side softening signals (EV OEM delivery/earnings stress) and 'price surge disrupts battery market' framing increase the chance of a pullback or stall within 24h.",
"probability_pct": 47,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"EV demand sensitivity: OEM delivery/earnings stress can propagate into battery materials demand expectations",
"High-price elasticity / disruption narratives (price surge framed as disruptive, not purely bullish)",
"Substitution/chemistry innovation backdrop (risk of marginal demand rotation away from lithium-intensive paths)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-001"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-001",
"B-LI-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 0,
"B": 12,
"C": 15,
"D": 328,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_evidence_share_0_to_1": 0.66,
"fresh_6_24h_evidence_share_0_to_1": 0.31,
"fresh_24_72h_evidence_share_0_to_1": 0.03,
"stale_gt_72h_evidence_share_0_to_1": 0.0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "low_authority_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional mass is broad, but the authority-tier mix is dominated by Tier D; treat conviction as more fragile to fast narrative reversals."
},
{
"flag": "demand_softening_counterevidence_present",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Fresh EV OEM weakness (delivery/earnings stress framing) acts as real counterevidence to the lithium-tightness thesis."
},
{
"flag": "price_spike_elasticity_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Price-surge narratives can flip from bullish (tightness) to bearish (demand destruction/disruption) quickly."
},
{
"flag": "late_breaking_invalidation",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Kill-switch not triggered (no <=2h multi-source opposing cluster detected), but monitor for sudden high-trust downside catalysts."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias watch if directional_score_signed stays >= +20 and contradiction_ratio remains <= 0.35 across the next 6h buckets.",
"action": "watch_long_bias"
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if contradiction_ratio rises above 0.40 or if net sentiment swings by >40 points within 2 consecutive hourly buckets.",
"action": "volatility_watch"
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if fresh bearish evidence clusters (2+ independent signals) appear within <=2h and directional_score_signed falls below +10.",
"action": "reversal_watch"
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -17,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": -12,
"acceleration_score": -15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 19,
"acceleration_score": 31,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 72,
"bullish_pressure_score": 92,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": 50,
"acceleration_score": 31,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 72,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 50,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 11,
"trends_admitted": 6,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as 'lithium' from flight_plan.",
"No trend_state_memory prior provided; state_change defaulted as if prior was neutral (new_bullish).",
"Authority mix for lithium-mapped items is heavily Tier D; conviction remains mass-driven but fragility elevated.",
"Late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered (no <=2h multi-source opposing cluster detected)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}