• subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: low_authority_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-04-20T15:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-001 Lithium futures skew upward over the next 24h as supply-chain tightness and renewed EV/battery buildout narratives keep bid pressure elevated (incl. lithium carbonate price-surge framing and critical-minerals urgency). 63 up accelerating 24h false 58
lithium B-LI-002 Upside is fragile: demand-side softening signals (EV OEM delivery/earnings stress) and 'price surge disrupts battery market' framing increase the chance of a pullback or stall within 24h. 47 mixed stable 24h false 58
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_lithium_2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Lithium futures skew upward over the next 24h as supply-chain tightness and renewed EV/battery buildout narratives keep bid pressure elevated (incl. lithium carbonate price-surge framing and critical-minerals urgency).",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Lithium carbonate price-surge / tightness narrative surfacing across multiple sources",
 "Critical minerals / strategic supply-chain positioning (EV OEM + upstream lithium references)",
 "Mining/refining capacity and DLE/technology-investment narratives adding incremental upside bias"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Upside is fragile: demand-side softening signals (EV OEM delivery/earnings stress) and 'price surge disrupts battery market' framing increase the chance of a pullback or stall within 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 47,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV demand sensitivity: OEM delivery/earnings stress can propagate into battery materials demand expectations",
 "High-price elasticity / disruption narratives (price surge framed as disruptive, not purely bullish)",
 "Substitution/chemistry innovation backdrop (risk of marginal demand rotation away from lithium-intensive paths)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-001"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-001",
 "B-LI-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 0,
 "B": 12,
 "C": 15,
 "D": 328,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_evidence_share_0_to_1": 0.66,
 "fresh_6_24h_evidence_share_0_to_1": 0.31,
 "fresh_24_72h_evidence_share_0_to_1": 0.03,
 "stale_gt_72h_evidence_share_0_to_1": 0.0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Directional mass is broad, but the authority-tier mix is dominated by Tier D; treat conviction as more fragile to fast narrative reversals."
 },
 {
 "flag": "demand_softening_counterevidence_present",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Fresh EV OEM weakness (delivery/earnings stress framing) acts as real counterevidence to the lithium-tightness thesis."
 },
 {
 "flag": "price_spike_elasticity_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Price-surge narratives can flip from bullish (tightness) to bearish (demand destruction/disruption) quickly."
 },
 {
 "flag": "late_breaking_invalidation",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Kill-switch not triggered (no <=2h multi-source opposing cluster detected), but monitor for sudden high-trust downside catalysts."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias watch if directional_score_signed stays >= +20 and contradiction_ratio remains <= 0.35 across the next 6h buckets.",
 "action": "watch_long_bias"
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if contradiction_ratio rises above 0.40 or if net sentiment swings by >40 points within 2 consecutive hourly buckets.",
 "action": "volatility_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if fresh bearish evidence clusters (2+ independent signals) appear within <=2h and directional_score_signed falls below +10.",
 "action": "reversal_watch"
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -17,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 11,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 13,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 21,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3,
 "velocity_score": -12,
 "acceleration_score": -15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 19,
 "acceleration_score": 31,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 92,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": 50,
 "acceleration_score": 31,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 72,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 50,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 11,
 "trends_admitted": 6,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as 'lithium' from flight_plan.",
 "No trend_state_memory prior provided; state_change defaulted as if prior was neutral (new_bullish).",
 "Authority mix for lithium-mapped items is heavily Tier D; conviction remains mass-driven but fragility elevated.",
 "Late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered (no <=2h multi-source opposing cluster detected)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}