Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: lithium
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: low_authority_overhang (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-20 12:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
B-LI-01 |
Near-term lithium price pressure is skewed upward as supply-tightness / deficit narratives and price-surge mentions dominate the most recent evidence window. |
66 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
medium |
| lithium |
B-LI-02 |
Upside conviction is capped by fragility risks: low authority density, substitution/chemistry headlines, and policy/adoption uncertainty can swing sentiment quickly. |
52 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
low |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260420T120000Z-lithium",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-01",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term lithium price pressure is skewed upward as supply-tightness / deficit narratives and price-surge mentions dominate the most recent evidence window.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Supply deficit / tightness warnings",
"EV demand-linked consumption expectations",
"Battery supply-chain / offtake agreement chatter",
"Spot/benchmark \u2018price surge\u2019 narratives bleeding into futures sentiment"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"VIP-010 (alt chemistries/substitution pressure; single-source)",
"VIP-011 (sodium-ion development; single-source)",
"VIP-013 (EV adoption delays; single-source)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-02",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Upside conviction is capped by fragility risks: low authority density, substitution/chemistry headlines, and policy/adoption uncertainty can swing sentiment quickly without needing strong counter-evidence.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Low authority share in the supporting corpus (Tier-D heavy)",
"Substitution narratives (sodium-ion / alternative chemistries) appearing as VIP singletons",
"Policy / adoption friction headlines (single-source negatives)",
"Volatility amplification from \u2018price surge\u2019 framing"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"T-022 (supply deficit framing; multi-source)",
"RA-001 / RA-002 (price surge narratives; multi-source)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 36,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-01"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 4,
"B": 12,
"C": 16,
"D": 520,
"U": 0,
"method": "approx_sum_from_admitted_signal_bundles (may double-count shared records across trends)"
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 5,
"fresh_6_24h": 4,
"fresh_24_72h": 6,
"gt_72h": 0,
"method": "signal-level newest/published timestamps present in admitted objects"
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "low_authority_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "lithium",
"detail": "Directional mass is broad, but Tier-D share is very high across admitted trend bundles."
},
{
"flag": "volatility_amplifier_price_surge_framing",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "lithium",
"detail": "Multiple \u2018price surge\u2019 narratives increase short-horizon whipsaw risk without necessarily adding durable conviction."
},
{
"flag": "substitution_watch",
"severity": "low",
"market": "lithium",
"detail": "Alternative chemistry (e.g., sodium-ion) appears as single-source VIP signals; low weight but relevant as a reversal accelerant if corroborated."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_spike_and_fade_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "lithium",
"detail": "Several top trends show spike/late-surge shapes; momentum may fade if not refreshed by new corroboration."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh corroboration persists over the next 6h with low contradiction (no meaningful opposing multi-source signals)."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If \u2018price surge\u2019 framing continues while authority share remains low, expect higher intraday whipsaw risk."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh (<=2h) demand-weakening or substitution-confirming signals arrive, reassess bullish state immediately."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction rises materially and bullish directional score falls into the neutral band (between -20 and +20)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
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"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 64,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 64,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68,
"bullish_pressure_score": 86,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 74,
"bullish_pressure_score": 94,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 74,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 72,
"bullish_pressure_score": 92,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 71,
"bullish_pressure_score": 90,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 71,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 71,
"bullish_pressure_score": 90,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 71,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 88,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 88,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 74,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No per-record v2 physics fields provided; used trend/risk/vip metadata (sentiment, authority tiers, recency proxies, temporal_profile) for synthesis.",
"Authority tier counts are approximate sums across admitted bundles and may double-count shared evidence records.",
"State_change derived with unknown prior; assumed neutral prior baseline -> new_bullish."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}