Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: lithium
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: low_authority_overhang (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-20 12:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-01 Near-term lithium price pressure is skewed upward as supply-tightness / deficit narratives and price-surge mentions dominate the most recent evidence window. 66 up stable 24h false medium
lithium B-LI-02 Upside conviction is capped by fragility risks: low authority density, substitution/chemistry headlines, and policy/adoption uncertainty can swing sentiment quickly. 52 mixed accelerating 6h false low

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260420T120000Z-lithium",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-01",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term lithium price pressure is skewed upward as supply-tightness / deficit narratives and price-surge mentions dominate the most recent evidence window.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Supply deficit / tightness warnings",
 "EV demand-linked consumption expectations",
 "Battery supply-chain / offtake agreement chatter",
 "Spot/benchmark \u2018price surge\u2019 narratives bleeding into futures sentiment"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "VIP-010 (alt chemistries/substitution pressure; single-source)",
 "VIP-011 (sodium-ion development; single-source)",
 "VIP-013 (EV adoption delays; single-source)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-02",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Upside conviction is capped by fragility risks: low authority density, substitution/chemistry headlines, and policy/adoption uncertainty can swing sentiment quickly without needing strong counter-evidence.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Low authority share in the supporting corpus (Tier-D heavy)",
 "Substitution narratives (sodium-ion / alternative chemistries) appearing as VIP singletons",
 "Policy / adoption friction headlines (single-source negatives)",
 "Volatility amplification from \u2018price surge\u2019 framing"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "T-022 (supply deficit framing; multi-source)",
 "RA-001 / RA-002 (price surge narratives; multi-source)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 36,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-01"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 4,
 "B": 12,
 "C": 16,
 "D": 520,
 "U": 0,
 "method": "approx_sum_from_admitted_signal_bundles (may double-count shared records across trends)"
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 5,
 "fresh_6_24h": 4,
 "fresh_24_72h": 6,
 "gt_72h": 0,
 "method": "signal-level newest/published timestamps present in admitted objects"
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "lithium",
 "detail": "Directional mass is broad, but Tier-D share is very high across admitted trend bundles."
 },
 {
 "flag": "volatility_amplifier_price_surge_framing",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "lithium",
 "detail": "Multiple \u2018price surge\u2019 narratives increase short-horizon whipsaw risk without necessarily adding durable conviction."
 },
 {
 "flag": "substitution_watch",
 "severity": "low",
 "market": "lithium",
 "detail": "Alternative chemistry (e.g., sodium-ion) appears as single-source VIP signals; low weight but relevant as a reversal accelerant if corroborated."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_spike_and_fade_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "lithium",
 "detail": "Several top trends show spike/late-surge shapes; momentum may fade if not refreshed by new corroboration."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh corroboration persists over the next 6h with low contradiction (no meaningful opposing multi-source signals)."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If \u2018price surge\u2019 framing continues while authority share remains low, expect higher intraday whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh (<=2h) demand-weakening or substitution-confirming signals arrive, reassess bullish state immediately."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction rises materially and bullish directional score falls into the neutral band (between -20 and +20)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 30,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 64,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 64,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 86,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 74,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 94,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 74,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 92,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 71,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 90,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 71,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 71,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 90,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 71,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 88,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 88,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 74,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 4,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No per-record v2 physics fields provided; used trend/risk/vip metadata (sentiment, authority tiers, recency proxies, temporal_profile) for synthesis.",
 "Authority tier counts are approximate sums across admitted bundles and may double-count shared evidence records.",
 "State_change derived with unknown prior; assumed neutral prior baseline -> new_bullish."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}