Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 1
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity
  • generated_at: 2026-04-20 08:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-NEUTRAL-RECENCY_GAP Gold futures near-term direction is mixed/flat because mapped drivers are stale and there is insufficient fresh corroboration inside the last 24–72 hours. 52 mixed fading 24h false 82

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-20260420T080000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-NEUTRAL-RECENCY_GAP",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures near-term direction is mixed/flat because mapped drivers are stale and there is insufficient fresh corroboration inside the last 24\u201372 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_risk (stale background)",
 "real_rates / USD strength (stale background)",
 "ETF/investor positioning (stale / low-detail VIP signals)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 24,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 22,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-GOLD-NEUTRAL-RECENCY_GAP"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 1,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 1,
 "U": 1
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 0,
 "fresh_6_24h": 0,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 3
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag": "data_sparsity",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Insufficient fresh (<=72h) mapped evidence for gold; most mapped signals are from early March 2026."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Stale-only driver set forces conviction cap and momentum weakening."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "VIP signals include mixed sentiment and low corroboration; headline direction suppressed to neutral."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Remain until >=3 independent mapped gold-relevant records arrive within the most recent 72h window with coherent direction."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh geopolitical/real-rates shock is detected (<=6h) with 2+ independent sources mapped to gold, reassess for directional break."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh opposing cluster appears that flips net directional score beyond +/-20 with rising contradiction ratio."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 8,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 0,
 "cross_domain_merges": 0,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Gold scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=gold.",
 "Most mapped gold-relevant items in provided corpus are dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09 (stale >72h vs snapshot 2026-04-20).",
 "Geopolitical-conflict trends are abundant but not explicitly mapped to gold by alias; counted as unmapped context rather than directional gold evidence.",
 "Direction suppressed to neutral_mixed due to stale-only mapped evidence and low freshness confidence (client requested neutral/mixed when degraded).",
 "No late-breaking invalidation sentinel fired: no mapped opposing gold evidence in <=2h window."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}