Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker: null
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 1
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity
- generated_at: 2026-04-20 08:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| gold |
B-GOLD-NEUTRAL-RECENCY_GAP |
Gold futures near-term direction is mixed/flat because mapped drivers are stale and there is insufficient fresh corroboration inside the last 24–72 hours. |
52 |
mixed |
fading |
24h |
false |
82 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-gold-20260420T080000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold futures",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-NEUTRAL-RECENCY_GAP",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Gold futures near-term direction is mixed/flat because mapped drivers are stale and there is insufficient fresh corroboration inside the last 24\u201372 hours.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_risk (stale background)",
"real_rates / USD strength (stale background)",
"ETF/investor positioning (stale / low-detail VIP signals)"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 24,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 22,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-GOLD-NEUTRAL-RECENCY_GAP"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 1,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 1,
"U": 1
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 0,
"fresh_6_24h": 0,
"fresh_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 3
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag": "data_sparsity",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Insufficient fresh (<=72h) mapped evidence for gold; most mapped signals are from early March 2026."
},
{
"risk_flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Stale-only driver set forces conviction cap and momentum weakening."
},
{
"risk_flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "VIP signals include mixed sentiment and low corroboration; headline direction suppressed to neutral."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Remain until >=3 independent mapped gold-relevant records arrive within the most recent 72h window with coherent direction."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh geopolitical/real-rates shock is detected (<=6h) with 2+ independent sources mapped to gold, reassess for directional break."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh opposing cluster appears that flips net directional score beyond +/-20 with rising contradiction ratio."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 8,
"fragility_score_0_100": 90,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 0,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 0,
"cross_domain_merges": 0,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": true,
"notes": [
"Gold scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=gold.",
"Most mapped gold-relevant items in provided corpus are dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09 (stale >72h vs snapshot 2026-04-20).",
"Geopolitical-conflict trends are abundant but not explicitly mapped to gold by alias; counted as unmapped context rather than directional gold evidence.",
"Direction suppressed to neutral_mixed due to stale-only mapped evidence and low freshness confidence (client requested neutral/mixed when degraded).",
"No late-breaking invalidation sentinel fired: no mapped opposing gold evidence in <=2h window."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}