- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (severity: medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-20T13:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-01 |
Near-term coffee futures pricing pressure remains upward-biased as supply-chain/freight frictions and trade/logistics disruptions keep delivered supply risk elevated versus demand. |
63 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
46 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-02 |
Supply risk remains structurally supportive for higher coffee futures over the coming weeks due to weather/climate anomaly risk and crop health/disease narratives constraining confidence in production stability. |
66 |
up |
stable |
30d |
false |
46 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-03 |
Demand-side narratives (retail chain expansion / specialty coffee growth) add incremental upward support, but are less time-sensitive for 6h price direction than supply/logistics drivers. |
57 |
up |
fading |
6h |
false |
46 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260420T130000Z-coffee",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-01",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures pricing pressure remains upward-biased as supply-chain/freight frictions and trade/logistics disruptions keep delivered supply risk elevated versus demand.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply",
"shipping/freight cost and routing friction headlines",
"trade-flow and logistics disruption narratives"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Meaningful fresh evidence of easing freight bottlenecks or lower logistics costs (not present in admitted set)",
"Fresh evidence of improved export flow / faster delivery timelines (not present in admitted set)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-02",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Supply risk remains structurally supportive for higher coffee futures over the coming weeks due to weather/climate anomaly risk and crop health/disease narratives constraining confidence in production stability.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "30d",
"drivers": [
"weather_disruptions",
"crop_conditions_disease",
"climate-change supply risk framing",
"plant health / disease outbreak risk framing"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fresh, credible improvements in crop outlook or disease containment guidance (not present in admitted set)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-03",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand-side narratives (retail chain expansion / specialty coffee growth) add incremental upward support, but are less time-sensitive for 6h price direction than supply/logistics drivers.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"consumption_trends",
"coffee retail expansion narratives"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fresh evidence of demand deterioration or consumer downtrading specifically reducing coffee consumption (not present in admitted set)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-01",
"B-coffee-02",
"B-coffee-03"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 140,
"B": 16,
"C": 7,
"D": 360,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_trends_24h": 5,
"stale_trends_gt_72h": 5,
"mid_stale_trends_24_72h": 2,
"fresh_evidence_notes": "Multiple admitted themes show updates inside the last ~12h (notably logistics/cost and demand narratives), while several macro/climate and policy strands remain older than 72h (background support)."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Several high-impact macro/climate/policy strands are >72h old and act as background support rather than fresh catalysts; momentum depends on continued fresh confirmation."
},
{
"flag": "low_tier_share_elevated",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Admitted evidence mixes Tier-A with a large share of Tier-D coverage; authority confirmation is present but not dominant."
},
{
"flag": "thematic_to_price_translation_risk",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Several drivers are thematic (supply-chain risk, climate framing, demand narratives) and may not map cleanly into 6h price moves without a concrete market-structure catalyst."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh logistics/supply disruption confirmation persists across independent sources into the next 6\u201324h window while contradiction remains low, maintain a long-bias watch stance."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If contradictory evidence (e.g., easing freight constraints or improved crop outlook) appears in multiple independent sources within a 2\u20136h window, shift to reversal_watch."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If evidence flow becomes sparse (>6h with no meaningful updates) while older narratives dominate, consider a stay_flat posture due to higher fragility."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 2,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
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"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code='coffee'.",
"No explicit counter-direction (bearish coffee-price) evidence was present in the admitted trend set; reversal risk set to 'medium' primarily due to thematic-to-price translation risk and staleness overhang, not due to observed counterevidence.",
"Prior state unavailable (no trend_state_memory provided); state_change emitted as 'new_bullish' for this snapshot."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}