• subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (severity: medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-20T13:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-01 Near-term coffee futures pricing pressure remains upward-biased as supply-chain/freight frictions and trade/logistics disruptions keep delivered supply risk elevated versus demand. 63 up accelerating 24h false 46
coffee B-coffee-02 Supply risk remains structurally supportive for higher coffee futures over the coming weeks due to weather/climate anomaly risk and crop health/disease narratives constraining confidence in production stability. 66 up stable 30d false 46
coffee B-coffee-03 Demand-side narratives (retail chain expansion / specialty coffee growth) add incremental upward support, but are less time-sensitive for 6h price direction than supply/logistics drivers. 57 up fading 6h false 46
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260420T130000Z-coffee",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-01",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term coffee futures pricing pressure remains upward-biased as supply-chain/freight frictions and trade/logistics disruptions keep delivered supply risk elevated versus demand.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "origin_supply",
 "shipping/freight cost and routing friction headlines",
 "trade-flow and logistics disruption narratives"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Meaningful fresh evidence of easing freight bottlenecks or lower logistics costs (not present in admitted set)",
 "Fresh evidence of improved export flow / faster delivery timelines (not present in admitted set)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-02",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Supply risk remains structurally supportive for higher coffee futures over the coming weeks due to weather/climate anomaly risk and crop health/disease narratives constraining confidence in production stability.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "30d",
 "drivers": [
 "weather_disruptions",
 "crop_conditions_disease",
 "climate-change supply risk framing",
 "plant health / disease outbreak risk framing"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Fresh, credible improvements in crop outlook or disease containment guidance (not present in admitted set)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-03",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Demand-side narratives (retail chain expansion / specialty coffee growth) add incremental upward support, but are less time-sensitive for 6h price direction than supply/logistics drivers.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "consumption_trends",
 "coffee retail expansion narratives"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Fresh evidence of demand deterioration or consumer downtrading specifically reducing coffee consumption (not present in admitted set)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-01",
 "B-coffee-02",
 "B-coffee-03"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 140,
 "B": 16,
 "C": 7,
 "D": 360,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_trends_24h": 5,
 "stale_trends_gt_72h": 5,
 "mid_stale_trends_24_72h": 2,
 "fresh_evidence_notes": "Multiple admitted themes show updates inside the last ~12h (notably logistics/cost and demand narratives), while several macro/climate and policy strands remain older than 72h (background support)."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Several high-impact macro/climate/policy strands are >72h old and act as background support rather than fresh catalysts; momentum depends on continued fresh confirmation."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_tier_share_elevated",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Admitted evidence mixes Tier-A with a large share of Tier-D coverage; authority confirmation is present but not dominant."
 },
 {
 "flag": "thematic_to_price_translation_risk",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Several drivers are thematic (supply-chain risk, climate framing, demand narratives) and may not map cleanly into 6h price moves without a concrete market-structure catalyst."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh logistics/supply disruption confirmation persists across independent sources into the next 6\u201324h window while contradiction remains low, maintain a long-bias watch stance."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradictory evidence (e.g., easing freight constraints or improved crop outlook) appears in multiple independent sources within a 2\u20136h window, shift to reversal_watch."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If evidence flow becomes sparse (>6h with no meaningful updates) while older narratives dominate, consider a stay_flat posture due to higher fragility."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 22,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
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 {
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 36,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
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 "acceleration_score": -2,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code='coffee'.",
 "No explicit counter-direction (bearish coffee-price) evidence was present in the admitted trend set; reversal risk set to 'medium' primarily due to thematic-to-price translation risk and staleness overhang, not due to observed counterevidence.",
 "Prior state unavailable (no trend_state_memory provided); state_change emitted as 'new_bullish' for this snapshot."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}