- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-04-20T04:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B1 |
Near-term coffee futures pricing bias is upward as supply-friction narratives (logistics disruption, higher input/labour costs) dominate the admitted signal set. |
62 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
56 |
| coffee |
B2 |
Demand-side narratives (retail chain expansion / specialty coffee growth) provide a mild supportive tailwind, but are slower-moving and less decisive for the next 6–24 hours. |
55 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
56 |
| coffee |
B3 |
Over the next 6 hours, coffee futures are more likely to be range-bound with an upward tilt than to show a clean trend, due to limited truly new (<6h) catalysts despite broadly supportive background pressure. |
58 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
56 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-coffee-20260420T040000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures pricing bias is upward as supply-friction narratives (logistics disruption, higher input/labour costs) dominate the admitted signal set.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight: recurring logistics disruption / route-risk narratives (Hormuz-linked shipping constraints)",
"origin_supply: labour shortages / higher production costs pressuring supply availability",
"crop_conditions_disease: ongoing plant-health / disease-risk narratives increasing supply uncertainty"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Lack of fresh (<6h) market-structural catalysts; many signals are persistent/background rather than new shocks"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand-side narratives (retail chain expansion / specialty coffee growth) provide a mild supportive tailwind, but are slower-moving and less decisive for the next 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"consumption_trends: retail expansion / specialty coffee growth themes",
"pricing: downstream pricing power narratives can tolerate higher green-coffee costs (indirect support)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Short-horizon translation from retail expansion to futures pricing is indirect"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Over the next 6 hours, coffee futures are more likely to be range-bound with an upward tilt than to show a clean trend, due to limited truly new (<6h) catalysts despite broadly supportive background pressure.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"freshness: sparse 0\u20136h incremental evidence concentration",
"background: persistent supply-chain / input-cost risk overhang"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If fresh logistics or origin-supply headlines accelerate, range-bound expectation can break"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 70,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2",
"B3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 167,
"B": 12,
"C": 6,
"D": 349,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_evidence_est": 2,
"fresh_6_24h_evidence_est": 4,
"recent_24_72h_evidence_est": 10,
"stale_gt_72h_evidence_est": 20,
"notes": [
"Mix is estimated from per-trend newest/oldest timestamps and seed publish times available in 5B payload; many themes originated 2026-04-12 to 2026-04-15 and are repeatedly referenced rather than newly created."
]
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "A large share of directional support is persistent/background (seeded earlier in the week) with periodic repeats; short-horizon impulse strength is capped."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"flag": "supply_chain_geopolitical_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Shipping-route/geopolitical disruption narratives elevate volatility and gap-risk even if net directional bias remains upward."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"flag": "data_sparsity_0_6h",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Few distinct, independent <6h catalysts; 6h direction is less reliable than 24h bias."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh records (<=24h) confirm tightening supply/logistics or crop stress without matching fresh easing/crop-improvement counterevidence."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If shipping/geopolitical headlines accelerate (fresh <=6h) or contradiction ratio rises materially versus the last cycle."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence indicates easing freight constraints, improved origin shipments, or improving crop outlook (2+ independent sources <=24h)."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If signals remain largely repetitive/stale and directional score stays near threshold (between -20 and +20) for multiple hours."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 9,
"acceleration_score": 9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -8,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 10,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 11,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit contradictions were provided in 5B payload; reversal risk is driven by freshness sparsity + headline volatility risk rather than active counterevidence.",
"Prior market state not provided (no trend_state_memory/prior market_state_table available); state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown_prior context."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}