• subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-04-20T04:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B1 Near-term coffee futures pricing bias is upward as supply-friction narratives (logistics disruption, higher input/labour costs) dominate the admitted signal set. 62 up stable 24h false 56
coffee B2 Demand-side narratives (retail chain expansion / specialty coffee growth) provide a mild supportive tailwind, but are slower-moving and less decisive for the next 6–24 hours. 55 up fading 24h false 56
coffee B3 Over the next 6 hours, coffee futures are more likely to be range-bound with an upward tilt than to show a clean trend, due to limited truly new (<6h) catalysts despite broadly supportive background pressure. 58 mixed stable 6h false 56
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-coffee-20260420T040000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term coffee futures pricing bias is upward as supply-friction narratives (logistics disruption, higher input/labour costs) dominate the admitted signal set.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight: recurring logistics disruption / route-risk narratives (Hormuz-linked shipping constraints)",
 "origin_supply: labour shortages / higher production costs pressuring supply availability",
 "crop_conditions_disease: ongoing plant-health / disease-risk narratives increasing supply uncertainty"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Lack of fresh (<6h) market-structural catalysts; many signals are persistent/background rather than new shocks"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Demand-side narratives (retail chain expansion / specialty coffee growth) provide a mild supportive tailwind, but are slower-moving and less decisive for the next 6\u201324 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "consumption_trends: retail expansion / specialty coffee growth themes",
 "pricing: downstream pricing power narratives can tolerate higher green-coffee costs (indirect support)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Short-horizon translation from retail expansion to futures pricing is indirect"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Over the next 6 hours, coffee futures are more likely to be range-bound with an upward tilt than to show a clean trend, due to limited truly new (<6h) catalysts despite broadly supportive background pressure.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "freshness: sparse 0\u20136h incremental evidence concentration",
 "background: persistent supply-chain / input-cost risk overhang"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If fresh logistics or origin-supply headlines accelerate, range-bound expectation can break"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 70,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2",
 "B3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 167,
 "B": 12,
 "C": 6,
 "D": 349,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_evidence_est": 2,
 "fresh_6_24h_evidence_est": 4,
 "recent_24_72h_evidence_est": 10,
 "stale_gt_72h_evidence_est": 20,
 "notes": [
 "Mix is estimated from per-trend newest/oldest timestamps and seed publish times available in 5B payload; many themes originated 2026-04-12 to 2026-04-15 and are repeatedly referenced rather than newly created."
 ]
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "A large share of directional support is persistent/background (seeded earlier in the week) with periodic repeats; short-horizon impulse strength is capped."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "flag": "supply_chain_geopolitical_volatility",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Shipping-route/geopolitical disruption narratives elevate volatility and gap-risk even if net directional bias remains upward."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "flag": "data_sparsity_0_6h",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Few distinct, independent <6h catalysts; 6h direction is less reliable than 24h bias."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh records (<=24h) confirm tightening supply/logistics or crop stress without matching fresh easing/crop-improvement counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If shipping/geopolitical headlines accelerate (fresh <=6h) or contradiction ratio rises materially versus the last cycle."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence indicates easing freight constraints, improved origin shipments, or improving crop outlook (2+ independent sources <=24h)."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If signals remain largely repetitive/stale and directional score stays near threshold (between -20 and +20) for multiple hours."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 9,
 "acceleration_score": 9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -8,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 10,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 11,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 4,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit contradictions were provided in 5B payload; reversal risk is driven by freshness sparsity + headline volatility risk rather than active counterevidence.",
 "Prior market state not provided (no trend_state_memory/prior market_state_table available); state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown_prior context."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}