Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: crude_oil
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_supply_disruption_cluster (high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-20T15:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-crude-001 | Near-term crude oil futures upside pressure is elevated due to concentrated supply-disruption/shipping-risk narratives (Hormuz/Red Sea interdiction/seizure/sanctions enforcement themes) dominating the freshest evidence window. | 66 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 62 |
| crude_oil | B-crude-002 | Upside conviction is capped by meaningful event-driven whipsaw risk: a fast de-escalation, clarification, or disproval of key disruption claims could compress risk premium quickly within the next day. | 58 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260420T150000Z-crude_oil", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Brent crude oil futures", "market_code": "crude_oil" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 77, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "crude_oil", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-crude-001", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Near-term crude oil futures upside pressure is elevated due to concentrated supply-disruption/shipping-risk narratives (Hormuz/Red Sea interdiction/seizure/sanctions enforcement themes) dominating the freshest evidence window.", "probability_pct": 66, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_disruption", "inventory_storage", "macro_demand (risk-premium channel)", "national_oil_companies (export/flows uncertainty)", "shipping / transit disruption risk (Hormuz / Red Sea)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Demand-destruction framing (IEA / macro tightening narratives)", "Policy-demand headwinds (fossil fuel reduction / transition policy signals)", "Isolated spot/grade weakness signals (single-source Oman crude decline)" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 83, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-crude-002", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Upside conviction is capped by meaningful event-driven whipsaw risk: a fast de-escalation, clarification, or disproval of key disruption claims could compress risk premium quickly within the next day.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_disruption resolution risk", "headline/rumour concentration in lower-tier sources", "policy/macro counterweights" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Broad multi-source reinforcement continuing through the most recent hours" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 85, "conviction_score_0_100": 77, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-crude-001", "B-crude-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 14, "B": 8, "C": 3, "D": 520, "U": 0, "note": "Approximate, non-deduplicated across admitted trend/risk bundles; low-tier share remains dominant." }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_24h": 540, "mid_24_72h": 0, "stale_gt_72h": 0 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "flag": "geopolitical_supply_disruption_cluster", "severity": "high", "detail": "Multiple fresh, thematically-aligned disruption/interdiction/seizure narratives imply elevated risk premium." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "flag": "low_tier_source_heavy_mix", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Directional mass is broad, but authority-tier coverage is a minority share; increases whipsaw risk." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "flag": "macro_demand_counterweight_present", "severity": "low", "detail": "Demand-destruction / policy transition themes provide counterpressure and raise reversal sensitivity." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "flag": "single_source_price_outliers_present", "severity": "low", "detail": "VIP single-source grade/spot signal (e.g., Oman crude decline) is not corroborated." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "high", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "If fresh disruption/interdiction narratives continue to reinforce without credible counterevidence within the next 6 hours." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "high", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "If conflicting clarifications/emerging de-escalation headlines appear (especially Tier A/official) within a 1\u20132 hour window." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If counterevidence mass rises (2+ independent opposing records within 2 hours) causing a contradiction spike." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "low", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "If incoming evidence becomes sparse and/or the dominant thesis becomes stale (>24\u201372h) without confirmation." } ], 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72, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 18, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 38, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": 12, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 55, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 64, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 73, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 65, "bullish_pressure_score": 86, "bearish_pressure_score": 21, "net_sentiment_score": 65, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 72, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 75, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 70, "bullish_pressure_score": 92, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 70, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 84, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 77, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 72, "bullish_pressure_score": 95, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 72, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 92, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 78, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 72, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 2, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 11, "trends_admitted": 11, "cross_domain_merges": 4, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.", "No explicit contradiction objects provided; counterevidence inferred from admitted non-disruption themes (policy/demand-destruction) and isolated VIP price weakness.", "No prior market state memory supplied; state_change computed vs unknown_prior baseline (treated as neutral -> bullish).", "Authority confirmation present but minority share versus broad lower-tier amplification; fragility elevated despite strong directional mass." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }