Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: crude_oil
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: echo_concentration_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-04-20 12:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-crude-001 Geopolitical escalation / Strait of Hormuz disruption narrative sustains an upside risk-premium in Brent/WTI over the next 6–24h. 68 up accelerating 6h false 68
crude_oil B-crude-002 Supply-side constraint framing (OPEC quota non-compliance / production challenges) reinforces near-term tightness bias in crude. 57 up stable 24h false 68
crude_oil B-crude-003 Macro downturn / demand-destruction framing is present but currently thin; it may cap upside if corroborated. 32 down fading 24h false 68

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260420T120000Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Geopolitical escalation / Strait of Hormuz disruption narrative sustains an upside risk-premium in Brent/WTI over the next 6\u201324h.",
 "probability_pct": 68,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "inventory_storage",
 "macro_demand (risk sentiment channel)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-crude-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 82,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Supply-side constraint framing (OPEC quota non-compliance / production challenges) reinforces near-term tightness bias in crude.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "opec_supply_policy",
 "national_oil_companies"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-crude-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Macro downturn / demand-destruction framing is present but currently thin; it may cap upside if corroborated.",
 "probability_pct": 32,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "macro_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-crude-001",
 "B-crude-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 35,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 20,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 85,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-crude-001",
 "B-crude-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 8,
 "B": 10,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 420,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_share_0_1": 0.62,
 "fresh_6_24h_share_0_1": 0.38,
 "stale_over_24h_share_0_1": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "echo_concentration_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "note": "Some admitted clusters show high top-domain share / echo-risk characteristics; treat conviction as more fragile than raw volume implies."
 },
 {
 "flag": "authority_skew_low_tier_heavy",
 "severity": "medium",
 "markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "note": "Directional mass is broad, but the evidence mix is heavily Tier-D; authority confirmation is present but not dominant."
 },
 {
 "flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "note": "Geopolitical supply-disruption narratives can reverse rapidly without gradual lead indicators."
 },
 {
 "flag": "recent_heat_cooling",
 "severity": "low",
 "markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "note": "Most evidence timestamps cluster earlier in the session; momentum is weakening absent continued fresh reinforcement."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) independent confirmation of disruption/closure risk persists without opposing de-escalation signals."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Any official maritime/security update or clear operational constraint headline that changes passage/flow expectations."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh records (<=2h) indicating de-escalation / reopening / restored flows (late-breaking invalidation)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 30,
 "acceleration_score": 25,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 10,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 78,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 78,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 10,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": -12,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": -15,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -15,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 78,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 13,
 "trends_admitted": 6,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to crude_oil; single-market constraint enforced.",
 "Directional bias derived from supply-disruption / closure-risk framing; no explicit fresh counterevidence cluster was provided in admitted corpus.",
 "Momentum marked weakening because evidence appears clustered earlier in-session with fewer late-hour reinforcements, increasing fragility/whipsaw sensitivity.",
 "State_change set to new_bullish due to unknown prior-state (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table provided)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}