Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: crude_oil
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: echo_concentration_risk
- generated_at: 2026-04-20 12:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-crude-001 | Geopolitical escalation / Strait of Hormuz disruption narrative sustains an upside risk-premium in Brent/WTI over the next 6–24h. | 68 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 68 |
| crude_oil | B-crude-002 | Supply-side constraint framing (OPEC quota non-compliance / production challenges) reinforces near-term tightness bias in crude. | 57 | up | stable | 24h | false | 68 |
| crude_oil | B-crude-003 | Macro downturn / demand-destruction framing is present but currently thin; it may cap upside if corroborated. | 32 | down | fading | 24h | false | 68 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260420T120000Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Geopolitical escalation / Strait of Hormuz disruption narrative sustains an upside risk-premium in Brent/WTI over the next 6\u201324h.",
"probability_pct": 68,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"inventory_storage",
"macro_demand (risk sentiment channel)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-crude-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 82,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Supply-side constraint framing (OPEC quota non-compliance / production challenges) reinforces near-term tightness bias in crude.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"opec_supply_policy",
"national_oil_companies"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-crude-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro downturn / demand-destruction framing is present but currently thin; it may cap upside if corroborated.",
"probability_pct": 32,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"macro_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-crude-001",
"B-crude-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 35,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 20,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 85,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-crude-001",
"B-crude-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 8,
"B": 10,
"C": 2,
"D": 420,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_share_0_1": 0.62,
"fresh_6_24h_share_0_1": 0.38,
"stale_over_24h_share_0_1": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "echo_concentration_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"note": "Some admitted clusters show high top-domain share / echo-risk characteristics; treat conviction as more fragile than raw volume implies."
},
{
"flag": "authority_skew_low_tier_heavy",
"severity": "medium",
"markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"note": "Directional mass is broad, but the evidence mix is heavily Tier-D; authority confirmation is present but not dominant."
},
{
"flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"note": "Geopolitical supply-disruption narratives can reverse rapidly without gradual lead indicators."
},
{
"flag": "recent_heat_cooling",
"severity": "low",
"markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"note": "Most evidence timestamps cluster earlier in the session; momentum is weakening absent continued fresh reinforcement."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) independent confirmation of disruption/closure risk persists without opposing de-escalation signals."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Any official maritime/security update or clear operational constraint headline that changes passage/flow expectations."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh records (<=2h) indicating de-escalation / reopening / restored flows (late-breaking invalidation)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 30,
"acceleration_score": 25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 78,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 78,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 72,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": -12,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": -15,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -15,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 78,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 13,
"trends_admitted": 6,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to crude_oil; single-market constraint enforced.",
"Directional bias derived from supply-disruption / closure-risk framing; no explicit fresh counterevidence cluster was provided in admitted corpus.",
"Momentum marked weakening because evidence appears clustered earlier in-session with fewer late-hour reinforcements, increasing fragility/whipsaw sensitivity.",
"State_change set to new_bullish due to unknown prior-state (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table provided)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}