• subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-UR-001 (contradiction_spike, medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-19 15:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-001 Broad nuclear build-out / policy support remains a net supportive demand narrative for uranium pricing over the next 24h. 62 up stable 24h false 55
uranium B-UR-002 Near-term uranium sentiment is vulnerable to deal-flow headlines (Iran/Russia/US) that can flip perceived supply risk quickly. 58 mixed accelerating 6h false 55
uranium B-UR-003 If negotiation narratives progress towards sanctions relief / uranium stockpile handling, perceived incremental supply risk rises and can pressure uranium sentiment. 35 down fading 24h false 55
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260419T150000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Broad nuclear build-out / policy support remains a net supportive demand narrative for uranium pricing over the next 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "nuclear_policy",
 "reactor_demand",
 "energy_security"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Iran negotiation / stockpile-transfer narratives implying potential supply normalisation"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Near-term uranium sentiment is vulnerable to deal-flow headlines (Iran/Russia/US negotiation signals) that can flip perceived supply risk quickly.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "uranium_supply_contracting"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Persistent multi-region pro-nuclear policy flow diluting single-headline impact"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "If negotiation narratives progress towards sanctions relief / uranium stockpile handling, perceived incremental supply risk rises and can pressure uranium sentiment.",
 "probability_pct": 35,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "nuclear_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Structural supply-deficit framing and contracting themes"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-001",
 "B-UR-002",
 "B-UR-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 56,
 "B": 19,
 "C": 12,
 "D": 454,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signals": 6,
 "fresh_6_24h_signals": 2,
 "fresh_24_72h_signals": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h_background_signals": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-UR-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "type": "contradiction_spike",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Concurrent pro-nuclear demand/policy flow versus Iran-related negotiation/stockpile narratives creating mixed near-term supply expectations."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-UR-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Deal/negotiation headlines can dominate intraday despite broader demand/support narrative."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-UR-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "type": "low_authority_share_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Directional mass is broad, but a large portion of supporting corpus is low-tier/retail amplification; monitor for Tier-A confirmation on key catalysts."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If pro-nuclear policy / demand narratives remain dominant and no new credible supply-normalisation headline emerges in the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) negotiation/sanctions-relief signals increase and begin to outweigh demand/policy reinforcement (rising contradiction ratio)."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If geopolitical negotiation headlines cluster within the same hour (multiple independent sources) causing rapid sentiment flips."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional score remains between -20 and +20 for multiple consecutive hours with elevated contradiction."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T03:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T04:00:00Z",
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T05:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T07:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 "acceleration_score": -12,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
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 "velocity_score": -6,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": -18,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 22,
 "acceleration_score": 40,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": -16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 22,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 6,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 22,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 2,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No prior market-state memory provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior handling.",
 "Tier counts are summed from admitted trend evidence bundles (not deduplicated across overlapping corpora).",
 "Directional interpretation maps nuclear build-out / supply-deficit narratives as price-supportive, and negotiation/sanctions-relief narratives as potential supply-normalisation counterpressure."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}