- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-UR-001 (contradiction_spike, medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-19 15:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| uranium |
B-UR-001 |
Broad nuclear build-out / policy support remains a net supportive demand narrative for uranium pricing over the next 24h. |
62 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
55 |
| uranium |
B-UR-002 |
Near-term uranium sentiment is vulnerable to deal-flow headlines (Iran/Russia/US) that can flip perceived supply risk quickly. |
58 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
55 |
| uranium |
B-UR-003 |
If negotiation narratives progress towards sanctions relief / uranium stockpile handling, perceived incremental supply risk rises and can pressure uranium sentiment. |
35 |
down |
fading |
24h |
false |
55 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260419T150000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Broad nuclear build-out / policy support remains a net supportive demand narrative for uranium pricing over the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"nuclear_policy",
"reactor_demand",
"energy_security"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Iran negotiation / stockpile-transfer narratives implying potential supply normalisation"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term uranium sentiment is vulnerable to deal-flow headlines (Iran/Russia/US negotiation signals) that can flip perceived supply risk quickly.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"uranium_supply_contracting"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Persistent multi-region pro-nuclear policy flow diluting single-headline impact"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-003",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "If negotiation narratives progress towards sanctions relief / uranium stockpile handling, perceived incremental supply risk rises and can pressure uranium sentiment.",
"probability_pct": 35,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"nuclear_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Structural supply-deficit framing and contracting themes"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-002",
"B-UR-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 56,
"B": 19,
"C": 12,
"D": 454,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signals": 6,
"fresh_6_24h_signals": 2,
"fresh_24_72h_signals": 0,
"stale_gt_72h_background_signals": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-UR-001",
"market": "uranium",
"type": "contradiction_spike",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Concurrent pro-nuclear demand/policy flow versus Iran-related negotiation/stockpile narratives creating mixed near-term supply expectations."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-UR-002",
"market": "uranium",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Deal/negotiation headlines can dominate intraday despite broader demand/support narrative."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-UR-003",
"market": "uranium",
"type": "low_authority_share_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Directional mass is broad, but a large portion of supporting corpus is low-tier/retail amplification; monitor for Tier-A confirmation on key catalysts."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If pro-nuclear policy / demand narratives remain dominant and no new credible supply-normalisation headline emerges in the next 6h."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) negotiation/sanctions-relief signals increase and begin to outweigh demand/policy reinforcement (rising contradiction ratio)."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If geopolitical negotiation headlines cluster within the same hour (multiple independent sources) causing rapid sentiment flips."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If directional score remains between -20 and +20 for multiple consecutive hours with elevated contradiction."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
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"velocity_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
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"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
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},
{
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{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T23:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
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"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 12,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T00:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 1,
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"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T01:00:00Z",
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"velocity_score": -6,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T02:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 18,
"acceleration_score": 24,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -24,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": -18,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 22,
"acceleration_score": 40,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": -16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 22,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 6,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 22,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 2,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No prior market-state memory provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior handling.",
"Tier counts are summed from admitted trend evidence bundles (not deduplicated across overlapping corpora).",
"Directional interpretation maps nuclear build-out / supply-deficit narratives as price-supportive, and negotiation/sanctions-relief narratives as potential supply-normalisation counterpressure."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}