Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_to_price_mapping_risk (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-19T15:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-COFFEE-1 Near-term supply-side tightness (shipping/logistics friction, labour constraints, and rising farm/processing input costs) is maintaining upward pressure on coffee futures. 63 up stable 6h false 48
coffee B-COFFEE-2 Demand/consumption visibility (retail chain expansion and specialty coffee growth narratives) is reinforcing the underlying bid for coffee futures alongside supply-side constraints. 58 up accelerating 24h false 48

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-coffee-20260419T150000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-1",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term supply-side tightness (shipping/logistics friction, labour constraints, and rising farm/processing input costs) is maintaining upward pressure on coffee futures.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "labour_costs",
 "origin_supply",
 "crop_conditions_disease"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-2",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Demand/consumption visibility (retail chain expansion and specialty coffee growth narratives) is reinforcing the underlying bid for coffee futures alongside supply-side constraints.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "consumption_trends",
 "origin_supply",
 "shipping_freight"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 79,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-COFFEE-1",
 "B-COFFEE-2"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 20,
 "B": 4,
 "C": 3,
 "D": 60,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "signals_0_6h": 4,
 "signals_6_24h": 4,
 "signals_24_72h": 2,
 "signals_gt_72h": 2
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "narrative_to_price_mapping_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Several inputs are narrative/operational (retail expansion, policy, logistics); directional mapping to futures price is plausible but not mechanically confirmed by price/positioning data in this workflow."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "A subset of supportive themes have newest evidence slightly beyond 72h; treated as background support rather than primary fresh catalyst."
 },
 {
 "flag": "unknown_prior_state",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "No prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory supplied; state_change set to 'unchanged' by default."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while fresh supply-constraint and demand-visibility signals remain dominant and contradiction stays low."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if shipping/freight disruption narratives intensify (higher frequency of fresh records) or if policy/tariff headlines cluster."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Upgrade reversal watch if fresh evidence appears indicating easing logistics, improving crop outlook, or material demand softening (2+ independent sources within 2h\u20136h)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Direction derived from admitted narratives mapped to coffee price pressure: supply constraints + demand visibility -> bullish bias.",
 "No explicit contradictions provided in input (workflow5b_output.contradictions empty); contradiction_ratio held low.",
 "State-change uses unknown prior; defaulted to 'unchanged' to avoid inventing prior regime."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}