Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: narrative_to_price_mapping_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-19T15:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-COFFEE-1 |
Near-term supply-side tightness (shipping/logistics friction, labour constraints, and rising farm/processing input costs) is maintaining upward pressure on coffee futures. |
63 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
48 |
| coffee |
B-COFFEE-2 |
Demand/consumption visibility (retail chain expansion and specialty coffee growth narratives) is reinforcing the underlying bid for coffee futures alongside supply-side constraints. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
48 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-coffee-20260419T150000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-1",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term supply-side tightness (shipping/logistics friction, labour constraints, and rising farm/processing input costs) is maintaining upward pressure on coffee futures.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"labour_costs",
"origin_supply",
"crop_conditions_disease"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-2",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand/consumption visibility (retail chain expansion and specialty coffee growth narratives) is reinforcing the underlying bid for coffee futures alongside supply-side constraints.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"consumption_trends",
"origin_supply",
"shipping_freight"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 79,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-COFFEE-1",
"B-COFFEE-2"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 20,
"B": 4,
"C": 3,
"D": 60,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_0_6h": 4,
"signals_6_24h": 4,
"signals_24_72h": 2,
"signals_gt_72h": 2
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_to_price_mapping_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Several inputs are narrative/operational (retail expansion, policy, logistics); directional mapping to futures price is plausible but not mechanically confirmed by price/positioning data in this workflow."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"details": "A subset of supportive themes have newest evidence slightly beyond 72h; treated as background support rather than primary fresh catalyst."
},
{
"flag": "unknown_prior_state",
"severity": "low",
"details": "No prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory supplied; state_change set to 'unchanged' by default."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while fresh supply-constraint and demand-visibility signals remain dominant and contradiction stays low."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if shipping/freight disruption narratives intensify (higher frequency of fresh records) or if policy/tariff headlines cluster."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Upgrade reversal watch if fresh evidence appears indicating easing logistics, improving crop outlook, or material demand softening (2+ independent sources within 2h\u20136h)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Direction derived from admitted narratives mapped to coffee price pressure: supply constraints + demand visibility -> bullish bias.",
"No explicit contradictions provided in input (workflow5b_output.contradictions empty); contradiction_ratio held low.",
"State-change uses unknown prior; defaulted to 'unchanged' to avoid inventing prior regime."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}