Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-19 14:50 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-crude-001 | Near-term upside pressure on Brent crude due to elevated geopolitical disruption risk (naval blockade / chokepoint disruption narrative... | 67 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 55 |
| crude_oil | B-crude-002 | Volatility risk is elevated over the next 24h; price moves are likely to be event-driven with headline sensitivity dominating (rapid repr... | 72 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 55 |
| crude_oil | B-crude-003 | Some localised product/logistics signals (e.g., jet fuel supply secured / jet fuel shortage risk) provide mixed offsetting implications; ... | 55 | mixed | fading | 24h | false | 55 |
Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260419T145000Z-crude_oil", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-19T14:50:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Brent crude oil futures", "market_code": "crude_oil" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 76, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "crude_oil", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-crude-001", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Near-term upside pressure on Brent crude due to elevated geopolitical disruption risk (naval blockade / chokepoint disruption narrative concentrated around Iran and key maritime routes).", "probability_pct": 67, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_disruption", "opec_supply_policy", "inventory_storage" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-crude-003" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 83, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-crude-002", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Volatility risk is elevated over the next 24h; price moves are likely to be event-driven with headline sensitivity dominating (rapid repricing risk even without broad counter-evidence in the current corpus).", "probability_pct": 72, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_disruption", "macro_demand" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-crude-003", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Some localised product/logistics signals (e.g., jet fuel supply secured / jet fuel shortage risk) provide mixed offsetting implications; as currently singleton-heavy, they modestly increase uncertainty rather than overturn the bullish pressure.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "refining_constraints", "inventory_storage" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-crude-001" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 42, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 20, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 83, "conviction_score_0_100": 76, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-crude-001", "B-crude-002", "B-crude-003" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 25, "B": 0, "C": 8, "D": 567, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_share_0_1": 0.78, "fresh_6_24h_share_0_1": 0.18, "stale_gt_24h_share_0_1": 0.04, "notes": "Freshness is dominated by same-day (2026-04-19) reporting; limited older carryover was visible in the admitted set." } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Dominant driver is geopolitical/chokepoint disruption; these regimes can flip on de-escalation headlines even without gradual counter-build." }, { "flag": "authority_skew_low_tier_share", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Directional mass is broad, but authority-tier mix is skewed towards lower tiers; conviction is supported by breadth + freshness more than institutional confirmation." }, { "flag": "echo_concentration_watch", "severity": "low", "detail": "Multiple trends appear to reference overlapping core events; treat incremental repeats as less additive than new independent developments." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "action": "watch_long_bias", "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Bullish directional mass remains broad and fresh with low direct counter-evidence; maintain a long-bias watch posture while regime is strengthening." }, { "action": "volatility_watch", "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Event-driven geopolitical catalysts dominate; expect outsized intraday swings and gap risk." }, { "action": "reversal_watch", "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Escalation narrative is dominant; reversal watch activates on any fresh, multi-source de-escalation/throughput-restoration signals inside a 2h window." }, { "action": "hard_de_risk_watch", "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Activate only if a late-breaking invalidation sentinel fires (fresh opposing signals <=2h with independent corroboration or a structural hard invalidator)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 85, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 85, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 85, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 85, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 85, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 85, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 85, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 85, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 85, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 85, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 85, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 85, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 12, "fragility_score_0_100": 84, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 20, "acceleration_score": 20, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 30, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 3, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 3, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 44, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 49, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 10, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 65, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 65, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 18, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 75, "bullish_pressure_score": 82, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 75, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 20, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 80, "bullish_pressure_score": 87, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 80, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 25, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 77, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 78, "bullish_pressure_score": 85, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 78, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 22, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T14:50:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 82, "bullish_pressure_score": 89, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 82, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 18, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 76, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 82, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 4, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target scope resolved explicitly to crude_oil; single-market constraint applied.", "Admitted corpus is dominated by geopolitics/maritime chokepoint disruption narratives; explicit counter-direction (de-escalation / throughput restoration) evidence is not present at scale.", "Authority confirmation exists (Tier-A anchors present), but overall authority mix remains skewed low-tier; under mass_consensus this does not cap conviction absent true counter-evidence.", "Prior state not provided (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table); state_change defaulted to 'unchanged' to avoid implying a reversal/new regime without a baseline." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }