• subject_area: Uranium (U3O8) futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: uranium
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: late_breaking_opposition (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-18T21:45:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 1
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-001 Near-term uranium sentiment remains skewed upward as nuclear deployment/expansion narratives (policy + permitting + AI-driven power demand) stay dominant in the latest corpus. 62 up accelerating 24h false 62
uranium B-UR-002 Structural supply tightness / contracting framing continues to provide supportive backdrop for uranium sentiment over the next 24h window. 58 up stable 24h false 62
uranium B-UR-003 Short-horizon downside/reversal risk is elevated if Iran-related negotiation headlines materially increase perceived near-term availability or reduce risk premia (fast sentiment flip risk). 38 down accelerating 6h false 62
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "snap_20260418T214500Z_uranium_6B",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-18T21:45:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium (U3O8) futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Near-term uranium sentiment remains skewed upward as nuclear deployment/expansion narratives (policy + permitting + AI-driven power demand) stay dominant in the latest corpus.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "reactor_demand",
 "nuclear_policy",
 "nuclear_innovation",
 "energy_security"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Structural supply tightness / contracting framing continues to provide supportive backdrop for uranium sentiment over the next 24h window.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "uranium_supply_contracting",
 "geopolitical_supply_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 69,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Short-horizon downside/reversal risk is elevated if Iran-related negotiation headlines materially increase perceived near-term availability or reduce risk premia (fast sentiment flip risk).",
 "probability_pct": 38,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "nuclear_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-001",
 "B-UR-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": true,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-001",
 "B-UR-002",
 "B-UR-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 7,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 3,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "signals_0_6h": 5,
 "signals_6_24h": 5,
 "signals_24_72h": 2,
 "signals_over_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "late_breaking_opposition",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Fresh Iran-related negotiation/stockpile narratives appeared in the most recent window and add non-trivial counter-pressure versus the otherwise bullish nuclear-expansion flow."
 },
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_elevated",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Mixed geopolitical vs demand-expansion drivers raise whipsaw risk; monitor for rapid headline-driven sentiment reversals."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_share_in_subclusters",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Several contributing sub-narratives show high Tier-D share / single-source VIP items; treated as supportive color rather than primary conviction anchors."
 },
 {
 "flag": "unknown_prior_state",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "No prior market_state_table / trend_state_memory provided; state_change defaulted to 'unchanged' to avoid false reversal labeling."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score stays >= +20 with freshness confidence not falling below medium, and contradiction ratio does not spike above ~0.40."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh opposing geopolitical signals persist/accelerate (multiple independent items) and directional score falls below +15 within the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises materially while fresh evidence count increases (headline clustering), indicating potential whipsaw."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Data sparsity or staleness dominates (fresh evidence count collapses) or a kill-switch invalidation event is detected."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
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 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
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 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
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 {
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
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 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T13:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 18,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 1,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Scope resolved explicitly to target_market_code=uranium; single-market synthesis enforced.",
 "Late-breaking opposing geopolitical flow detected (<=2h window) but not sufficient to trigger kill-switch given net bullish mass remains above threshold.",
 "source_tier_counts are approximated from admitted trend anchors (trend-level presence), not de-duplicated evidence-record totals."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}