- subject_area: Uranium (U3O8) futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: uranium
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: late_breaking_opposition (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-18T21:45:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 1
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| uranium |
B-UR-001 |
Near-term uranium sentiment remains skewed upward as nuclear deployment/expansion narratives (policy + permitting + AI-driven power demand) stay dominant in the latest corpus. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
62 |
| uranium |
B-UR-002 |
Structural supply tightness / contracting framing continues to provide supportive backdrop for uranium sentiment over the next 24h window. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
62 |
| uranium |
B-UR-003 |
Short-horizon downside/reversal risk is elevated if Iran-related negotiation headlines materially increase perceived near-term availability or reduce risk premia (fast sentiment flip risk). |
38 |
down |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
62 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snap_20260418T214500Z_uranium_6B",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-18T21:45:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium (U3O8) futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term uranium sentiment remains skewed upward as nuclear deployment/expansion narratives (policy + permitting + AI-driven power demand) stay dominant in the latest corpus.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"reactor_demand",
"nuclear_policy",
"nuclear_innovation",
"energy_security"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Structural supply tightness / contracting framing continues to provide supportive backdrop for uranium sentiment over the next 24h window.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"uranium_supply_contracting",
"geopolitical_supply_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 69,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-003",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Short-horizon downside/reversal risk is elevated if Iran-related negotiation headlines materially increase perceived near-term availability or reduce risk premia (fast sentiment flip risk).",
"probability_pct": 38,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"nuclear_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": true,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-002",
"B-UR-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 7,
"B": 2,
"C": 0,
"D": 3,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_0_6h": 5,
"signals_6_24h": 5,
"signals_24_72h": 2,
"signals_over_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "late_breaking_opposition",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Fresh Iran-related negotiation/stockpile narratives appeared in the most recent window and add non-trivial counter-pressure versus the otherwise bullish nuclear-expansion flow."
},
{
"flag": "contradiction_elevated",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Mixed geopolitical vs demand-expansion drivers raise whipsaw risk; monitor for rapid headline-driven sentiment reversals."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_share_in_subclusters",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Several contributing sub-narratives show high Tier-D share / single-source VIP items; treated as supportive color rather than primary conviction anchors."
},
{
"flag": "unknown_prior_state",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "low",
"details": "No prior market_state_table / trend_state_memory provided; state_change defaulted to 'unchanged' to avoid false reversal labeling."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score stays >= +20 with freshness confidence not falling below medium, and contradiction ratio does not spike above ~0.40."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh opposing geopolitical signals persist/accelerate (multiple independent items) and directional score falls below +15 within the next 6h."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises materially while fresh evidence count increases (headline clustering), indicating potential whipsaw."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Data sparsity or staleness dominates (fresh evidence count collapses) or a kill-switch invalidation event is detected."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 18,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 1,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Scope resolved explicitly to target_market_code=uranium; single-market synthesis enforced.",
"Late-breaking opposing geopolitical flow detected (<=2h window) but not sufficient to trigger kill-switch given net bullish mass remains above threshold.",
"source_tier_counts are approximated from admitted trend anchors (trend-level presence), not de-duplicated evidence-record totals."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}