Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: uranium
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk
- generated_at: 2026-04-18T07:03:04Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| uranium |
B-UR-1 |
Net narrative flow remains supportive for uranium pricing over the next 24h, driven by nuclear policy tailwinds, perceived structural supply tightness, and contracting/supply-risk framing. |
70 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
52 |
| uranium |
B-UR-2 |
Short-horizon (6h) uranium upside is vulnerable to policy/geopolitics headline whipsaw; any fresh de-escalation/diplomacy or supply-normalisation narrative can flatten or reverse the immediate bullish impulse. |
57 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
52 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-2026-04-18T07:03:04Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-18T07:03:04Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-1",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Net narrative flow remains supportive for uranium pricing over the next 24h, driven by nuclear policy tailwinds, perceived structural supply tightness, and contracting/supply-risk framing.",
"probability_pct": 70,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Policy/regulatory acceleration signals around civil nuclear enabling frameworks (demand support)",
"Structural supply deficit / inventory-absorption narratives (financial vehicle / contracting framing)",
"Geopolitical supply-risk and energy-security framing increasing risk-premium"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-2"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-2",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Short-horizon (6h) uranium upside is vulnerable to policy/geopolitics headline whipsaw; any fresh de-escalation/diplomacy or supply-normalisation narrative can flatten or reverse the immediate bullish impulse.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Geopolitical narrative volatility (fast-shifting headlines)",
"High share of lower-tier amplification in the corpus (fragility to reversals)",
"Market sensitivity to 'supply normalisation' framing"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-1"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"regime_state": "tightening",
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-1",
"B-UR-2"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 49,
"B": 12,
"C": 13,
"D": 243,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signal_count": 6,
"fresh_6_24h_signal_count": 0,
"fresh_24_72h_signal_count": 2,
"stale_gt_72h_signal_count": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Policy/geopolitics-linked uranium narratives can reverse quickly despite a currently bullish mass."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "low_authority_amplification_skew",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Directional mass is broad, but lower-tier share is elevated; treat conviction as more fragile than the headline state alone implies."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "geopolitical_supply_risk_two_sided",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Supply-risk framing supports upside, but any de-escalation/supply-normalisation headlines can act as fast counter-evidence."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain only while fresh supportive policy/supply-deficit signals persist and no fresh opposing (<=2h) multi-source counter-signal appears."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if two or more independent opposing signals arrive within 2h (e.g., de-escalation/supply-normalisation headlines) and directional score drops below +20."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction rises (mixed headlines) while fresh evidence remains high, expect choppy regime; keep bias but treat as fragile."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If conviction falls below 45 or thesis kill-switch triggers (late-breaking invalidation)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T07:03:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T08:03:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T08:03:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T09:03:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T09:03:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T10:03:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T10:03:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T11:03:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T11:03:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T12:03:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T12:03:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T13:03:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T13:03:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T14:03:04Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T14:03:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T15:03:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T15:03:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T16:03:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T16:03:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T17:03:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T17:03:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T18:03:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T18:03:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T19:03:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T19:03:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T20:03:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T20:03:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T21:03:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T21:03:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T22:03:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T22:03:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T23:03:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T23:03:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T00:03:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T00:03:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T01:03:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T01:03:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T02:03:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T02:03:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T03:03:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T03:03:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T04:03:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T04:03:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T05:03:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T05:03:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T06:03:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T06:03:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T07:03:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 10,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction ratio treated as low (conservative floor applied).",
"Timeseries buckets are shape-derived (late-surge / sustained profiles) due to missing full per-record timestamp distribution in the provided payload.",
"Prior state memory not provided; state_change emitted as new_bullish under unknown prior."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}