Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: uranium
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-04-18T07:03:04Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-1 Net narrative flow remains supportive for uranium pricing over the next 24h, driven by nuclear policy tailwinds, perceived structural supply tightness, and contracting/supply-risk framing. 70 up accelerating 24h false 52
uranium B-UR-2 Short-horizon (6h) uranium upside is vulnerable to policy/geopolitics headline whipsaw; any fresh de-escalation/diplomacy or supply-normalisation narrative can flatten or reverse the immediate bullish impulse. 57 mixed stable 6h false 52

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-2026-04-18T07:03:04Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-18T07:03:04Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-1",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Net narrative flow remains supportive for uranium pricing over the next 24h, driven by nuclear policy tailwinds, perceived structural supply tightness, and contracting/supply-risk framing.",
 "probability_pct": 70,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Policy/regulatory acceleration signals around civil nuclear enabling frameworks (demand support)",
 "Structural supply deficit / inventory-absorption narratives (financial vehicle / contracting framing)",
 "Geopolitical supply-risk and energy-security framing increasing risk-premium"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-2"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-2",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Short-horizon (6h) uranium upside is vulnerable to policy/geopolitics headline whipsaw; any fresh de-escalation/diplomacy or supply-normalisation narrative can flatten or reverse the immediate bullish impulse.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Geopolitical narrative volatility (fast-shifting headlines)",
 "High share of lower-tier amplification in the corpus (fragility to reversals)",
 "Market sensitivity to 'supply normalisation' framing"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-1"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-1",
 "B-UR-2"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 49,
 "B": 12,
 "C": 13,
 "D": 243,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signal_count": 6,
 "fresh_6_24h_signal_count": 0,
 "fresh_24_72h_signal_count": 2,
 "stale_gt_72h_signal_count": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Policy/geopolitics-linked uranium narratives can reverse quickly despite a currently bullish mass."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "low_authority_amplification_skew",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Directional mass is broad, but lower-tier share is elevated; treat conviction as more fragile than the headline state alone implies."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "geopolitical_supply_risk_two_sided",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Supply-risk framing supports upside, but any de-escalation/supply-normalisation headlines can act as fast counter-evidence."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain only while fresh supportive policy/supply-deficit signals persist and no fresh opposing (<=2h) multi-source counter-signal appears."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if two or more independent opposing signals arrive within 2h (e.g., de-escalation/supply-normalisation headlines) and directional score drops below +20."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction rises (mixed headlines) while fresh evidence remains high, expect choppy regime; keep bias but treat as fragile."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If conviction falls below 45 or thesis kill-switch triggers (late-breaking invalidation)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T07:03:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T08:03:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T08:03:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T09:03:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T09:03:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T10:03:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T10:03:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T11:03:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T11:03:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T12:03:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T12:03:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T13:03:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T13:03:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T14:03:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T14:03:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T15:03:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T15:03:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T16:03:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T16:03:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T17:03:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T17:03:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T18:03:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T18:03:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T19:03:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T19:03:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T20:03:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T20:03:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T21:03:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T21:03:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T22:03:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T22:03:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T23:03:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T23:03:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T00:03:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T00:03:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T01:03:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T01:03:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T02:03:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T02:03:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T03:03:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T03:03:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T04:03:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T04:03:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T05:03:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T05:03:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T06:03:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T06:03:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T07:03:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 10,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 8,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction ratio treated as low (conservative floor applied).",
 "Timeseries buckets are shape-derived (late-surge / sustained profiles) due to missing full per-record timestamp distribution in the provided payload.",
 "Prior state memory not provided; state_change emitted as new_bullish under unknown prior."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}