Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_headline_dependency
- generated_at: 2026-04-18T18:56:12Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Near-term Henry Hub natural gas futures are biased upward as LNG/shipping-route disruption risk and broader energy-security concerns raise perceived scarcity/volatility premia. |
65 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
58 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Natural gas futures volatility risk is elevated; rapid narrative flips can compress the risk premium quickly even if direction remains net-up. |
70 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-20260418T185612Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-18T18:56:12Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term Henry Hub natural gas futures are biased upward as LNG/shipping-route disruption risk and broader energy-security concerns raise perceived scarcity/volatility premia.",
"probability_pct": 65,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"LNG supply disruption narrative tied to Iran / shipping-route risk",
"Strait-of-Hormuz/energy corridor risk spillover into LNG risk premia",
"Europe gas-security framing (Russian gas essential / policy risk) supporting risk premia"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Partial de-escalation / resumption-of-transit headlines reducing immediate disruption probability",
"Evidence mix is geopolitics-heavy with limited direct US natgas fundamentals (storage/weather) in admitted set"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Natural gas futures volatility risk is elevated; rapid narrative flips can compress the risk premium quickly even if direction remains net-up.",
"probability_pct": 70,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"High-velocity geopolitical headline flow (spike-and-fade / late-surge patterns)",
"Mixed signals (disruption vs. partial transit resumption) increasing contradiction risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If disruption thesis stabilises with corroboration, volatility could normalise"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 76,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 23,
"B": 7,
"C": 3,
"D": 267,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"evidence_age_0_6h_count": 2,
"evidence_age_6_24h_count": 4,
"evidence_age_24_72h_count": 2,
"evidence_age_gt_72h_count": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "geopolitical_headline_dependency",
"severity": "high",
"note": "Directional bias is dominated by geopolitical/shipping-route narratives rather than directly observed storage/weather fundamentals in the admitted set."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Coexisting disruption and partial de-escalation/transit-resumption signals imply faster-than-normal sentiment reversals are plausible."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "contradiction_creep",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Recent buckets show fading net bullish pressure and a modest rise in contradiction ratio versus the peak window."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "fundamental_coverage_gap",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Limited explicit coverage of US storage prints, production outages, and near-term weather demand in the admitted signals raises model fragility."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) independent confirmation of LNG/shipping disruption increases while contradiction ratio stays <=0.20, maintain a long-bias watch.",
"action": "watch_long_bias"
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises above ~0.30 or rapid alternating disruption/de-escalation headlines persist, treat as a volatility regime.",
"action": "volatility_watch"
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If two or more independent de-escalation / transit-normalisation signals arrive within <=2h and directional score drops toward neutral (>-20 to <+20), treat as a reversal watch.",
"action": "reversal_watch"
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If evidence density drops materially (fresh_evidence_count ~0 across multiple hours) while conviction remains elevated, default to flat-bias watch until refreshed.",
"action": "stay_flat"
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 63,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 63,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 66,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 53,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 66,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 16,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 6,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior-state unavailable (unknown_prior); state_change left as 'unchanged' by fallback rule.",
"Market mapping focused on LNG/shipping-route disruption, Europe gas-security framing, and broad energy corridor risk; some oil-centric items were downweighted or excluded.",
"Source tier counts are aggregated from admitted trend bundles and may double-count shared underlying records across trends."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}