Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: geopolitical_headline_dependency
  • generated_at: 2026-04-18T18:56:12Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term Henry Hub natural gas futures are biased upward as LNG/shipping-route disruption risk and broader energy-security concerns raise perceived scarcity/volatility premia. 65 up fading 24h false 58
natural_gas B-NG-002 Natural gas futures volatility risk is elevated; rapid narrative flips can compress the risk premium quickly even if direction remains net-up. 70 mixed accelerating 6h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-20260418T185612Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-18T18:56:12Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term Henry Hub natural gas futures are biased upward as LNG/shipping-route disruption risk and broader energy-security concerns raise perceived scarcity/volatility premia.",
 "probability_pct": 65,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "LNG supply disruption narrative tied to Iran / shipping-route risk",
 "Strait-of-Hormuz/energy corridor risk spillover into LNG risk premia",
 "Europe gas-security framing (Russian gas essential / policy risk) supporting risk premia"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Partial de-escalation / resumption-of-transit headlines reducing immediate disruption probability",
 "Evidence mix is geopolitics-heavy with limited direct US natgas fundamentals (storage/weather) in admitted set"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Natural gas futures volatility risk is elevated; rapid narrative flips can compress the risk premium quickly even if direction remains net-up.",
 "probability_pct": 70,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "High-velocity geopolitical headline flow (spike-and-fade / late-surge patterns)",
 "Mixed signals (disruption vs. partial transit resumption) increasing contradiction risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If disruption thesis stabilises with corroboration, volatility could normalise"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 76,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 23,
 "B": 7,
 "C": 3,
 "D": 267,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "evidence_age_0_6h_count": 2,
 "evidence_age_6_24h_count": 4,
 "evidence_age_24_72h_count": 2,
 "evidence_age_gt_72h_count": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "flag": "geopolitical_headline_dependency",
 "severity": "high",
 "note": "Directional bias is dominated by geopolitical/shipping-route narratives rather than directly observed storage/weather fundamentals in the admitted set."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Coexisting disruption and partial de-escalation/transit-resumption signals imply faster-than-normal sentiment reversals are plausible."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "flag": "contradiction_creep",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Recent buckets show fading net bullish pressure and a modest rise in contradiction ratio versus the peak window."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "flag": "fundamental_coverage_gap",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Limited explicit coverage of US storage prints, production outages, and near-term weather demand in the admitted signals raises model fragility."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) independent confirmation of LNG/shipping disruption increases while contradiction ratio stays <=0.20, maintain a long-bias watch.",
 "action": "watch_long_bias"
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises above ~0.30 or rapid alternating disruption/de-escalation headlines persist, treat as a volatility regime.",
 "action": "volatility_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If two or more independent de-escalation / transit-normalisation signals arrive within <=2h and directional score drops toward neutral (>-20 to <+20), treat as a reversal watch.",
 "action": "reversal_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If evidence density drops materially (fresh_evidence_count ~0 across multiple hours) while conviction remains elevated, default to flat-bias watch until refreshed.",
 "action": "stay_flat"
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 26,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 63,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 63,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 66,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 53,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 53,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 66,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 16,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 6,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior-state unavailable (unknown_prior); state_change left as 'unchanged' by fallback rule.",
 "Market mapping focused on LNG/shipping-route disruption, Europe gas-security framing, and broad energy corridor risk; some oil-centric items were downweighted or excluded.",
 "Source tier counts are aggregated from admitted trend bundles and may double-count shared underlying records across trends."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}