Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker: null
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: min_evidence_threshold_not_met
- generated_at: 2026-04-18T08:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Fragile
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| gold |
B-GOLD-1 |
Near-term direction neutral/mixed; gold-specific drivers below evidence threshold and predominantly stale. |
62 |
mixed |
fading |
24h |
false |
80 |
| gold |
B-GOLD-2 |
Mild upside bias from background geopolitical/logistics risk-premium, but not fresh/strong enough to assert bullish for next 6–24h. |
54 |
up |
fading |
6h |
false |
80 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-gold-20260418T080000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold futures",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-1",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Near-term gold futures direction is neutral/mixed because gold-specific drivers in the admitted corpus are below the minimum evidence threshold and are predominantly stale.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"data_sparsity_in_gold_specific_signals",
"staleness_dominance_over_last_30d_window"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-GOLD-2"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 20,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-2",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "A mild upside bias exists as a background risk-premium thesis (geopolitical/logistics disruption narratives), but it is not strong enough (or fresh enough) to assert a bullish state for the next 6\u201324h.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_risk_background",
"trade_route_logistics_disruption_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"insufficient_fresh_confirmation_in_real_rates_usd_etf_flows"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 26,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 24,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 18,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-GOLD-1",
"B-GOLD-2"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 1,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 1,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 0,
"fresh_6_24h": 0,
"fresh_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 2
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "min_evidence_threshold_not_met",
"market": "gold",
"detail": "Gold-specific admitted signals < client min_evidence_threshold (3); directional call suppressed to neutral_mixed."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "gold",
"detail": "Most relevant gold-linked items are >72h old; stale suppression applied."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"market": "gold",
"detail": "Limited fresh inputs for real rates, USD strength, central-bank flows, ETF flows, and physical demand in the provided corpus."
},
{
"flag": "single_source_echo_risk_present",
"market": "gold",
"detail": "Gold-linked VIP items are singleton/low-diversity; increases fragility."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Remain until >=3 fresh, gold-specific confirming records/signals appear within the last 24h (or a clear driver impulse in real rates/USD/ETF flows is admitted)."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if additional corroborated trade/logistics disruption signals appear (2+ independent sources) or if contradiction begins rising vs prior cycle."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if a late-breaking (<=2h) opposing cluster emerges that materially changes net directional mass."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z",
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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},
{
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 2,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 2,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 0,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 0,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": true,
"notes": [
"Gold-specific admitted items are primarily VIP singleton signals dated 2026-03-08 to 2026-03-09 (stale relative to 2026-04-18).",
"Geopolitical conflict trends exist in the corpus but are not mapped as gold-specific market-direction signals under strict single-market admission; they are treated as background context only.",
"No explicit, fresh (<=72h) corpus signals were provided for real rates, USD strength, central-bank flows, ETF flows, or physical demand; conviction capped and direction suppressed."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}