Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: min_evidence_threshold_not_met
  • generated_at: 2026-04-18T08:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Fragile
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-1 Near-term direction neutral/mixed; gold-specific drivers below evidence threshold and predominantly stale. 62 mixed fading 24h false 80
gold B-GOLD-2 Mild upside bias from background geopolitical/logistics risk-premium, but not fresh/strong enough to assert bullish for next 6–24h. 54 up fading 6h false 80

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-20260418T080000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-1",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Near-term gold futures direction is neutral/mixed because gold-specific drivers in the admitted corpus are below the minimum evidence threshold and are predominantly stale.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "data_sparsity_in_gold_specific_signals",
 "staleness_dominance_over_last_30d_window"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-GOLD-2"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 20,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-2",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "A mild upside bias exists as a background risk-premium thesis (geopolitical/logistics disruption narratives), but it is not strong enough (or fresh enough) to assert a bullish state for the next 6\u201324h.",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_risk_background",
 "trade_route_logistics_disruption_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "insufficient_fresh_confirmation_in_real_rates_usd_etf_flows"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 26,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 24,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 18,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-GOLD-1",
 "B-GOLD-2"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 1,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 1,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 0,
 "fresh_6_24h": 0,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 2
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "min_evidence_threshold_not_met",
 "market": "gold",
 "detail": "Gold-specific admitted signals < client min_evidence_threshold (3); directional call suppressed to neutral_mixed."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "gold",
 "detail": "Most relevant gold-linked items are >72h old; stale suppression applied."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "market": "gold",
 "detail": "Limited fresh inputs for real rates, USD strength, central-bank flows, ETF flows, and physical demand in the provided corpus."
 },
 {
 "flag": "single_source_echo_risk_present",
 "market": "gold",
 "detail": "Gold-linked VIP items are singleton/low-diversity; increases fragility."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Remain until >=3 fresh, gold-specific confirming records/signals appear within the last 24h (or a clear driver impulse in real rates/USD/ETF flows is admitted)."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if additional corroborated trade/logistics disruption signals appear (2+ independent sources) or if contradiction begins rising vs prior cycle."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if a late-breaking (<=2h) opposing cluster emerges that materially changes net directional mass."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 2,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 2,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 0,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Gold-specific admitted items are primarily VIP singleton signals dated 2026-03-08 to 2026-03-09 (stale relative to 2026-04-18).",
 "Geopolitical conflict trends exist in the corpus but are not mapped as gold-specific market-direction signals under strict single-market admission; they are treated as background context only.",
 "No explicit, fresh (<=72h) corpus signals were provided for real rates, USD strength, central-bank flows, ETF flows, or physical demand; conviction capped and direction suppressed."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}