Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-copper-001
- generated_at: 2026-04-18 22:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-001 |
Copper futures have a net upward bias driven by supply-tightness/disruption narrative and persistent electrification/EV/grid demand. |
63 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
58 |
| copper |
B-copper-002 |
Near-term volatility risk elevated: policy/trade headlines and regulatory enforcement can flip bullishness to demand-destruction fears. |
58 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-copper-20260418T220000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures have a net upward bias driven by an active supply-tightness / supply-disruption narrative plus persistent electrification and grid/EV infrastructure demand framing.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"supply-demand imbalance narrative in industrial metals",
"supply chain disruption framing (mining/processing/logistics) raising perceived scarcity premium",
"energy transition / grid modernisation / EV infrastructure demand narratives"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"China macro softness proxy signals (e.g., industrial/steel-related decline narratives) increasing demand-slowdown risk",
"trade-policy headline volatility risk"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-002",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term volatility risk is elevated: policy/trade headlines and regulatory enforcement themes can rapidly flip the balance from supply-tightness bullishness to demand-destruction fears.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"trade policy uncertainty",
"regulatory enforcement / permitting constraints in mining regions",
"high narrative breadth with mixed source-tier quality"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 86,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-001",
"B-copper-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 74,
"B": 6,
"C": 8,
"D": 258,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_24h": "dominant",
"mid_24_72h": "present",
"stale_gt_72h": "background"
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-copper-001",
"market": "copper",
"type": "policy_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Trade-policy and regulatory headlines are prominent in the corpus and can reprice the demand outlook quickly."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-copper-002",
"market": "copper",
"type": "counterevidence_present",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "China macro softness proxy narratives (e.g., industrial/steel-related decline) act as demand-side counterweight to supply-tightness bullishness."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-copper-003",
"market": "copper",
"type": "authority_gap",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of the evidence mix is lower-tier; increases fragility despite strong consensus."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh supply-tightness / disruption confirmations continue while demand-side counterevidence does not accelerate."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Trade-policy / regulatory enforcement headlines increase in the last 6h window (contradiction rises or directional score swings)."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh demand-negative signals (<=24h) appear and directional_score_signed drops toward neutral."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Directional mass collapses (freshness drops) or contradiction ratio spikes above ~0.35 with no clear dominant direction."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 11,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 12,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 13,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 53,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 14,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 14,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as copper.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; counterevidence inferred conservatively from demand-negative macro proxies and policy-volatility themes present in admitted signal set.",
"Prior market state not provided; state_change emitted as new_bullish with unknown_prior fallback."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}