Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-LATE_BREAKING_INVALIDATION
  • generated_at: 2026-04-18T22:40:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Fragile
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 1
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 1

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-CRUDE-001 Geopolitical/maritime disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz and US–Iran enforcement actions is sustaining a near-term risk premium in crude. 58 up fading 24h true 78
crude_oil B-CRUDE-002 Late-breaking signals pointing to Hormuz reopening/normalisation and reports of oil price declines may rapidly compress the risk premium and pull crude lower near-term. 54 down accelerating 6h true 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-2026-04-18T22:40:00Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-18T22:40:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CRUDE-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Geopolitical/maritime disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz and US\u2013Iran enforcement actions is sustaining a near-term risk premium in crude.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "opec_supply_policy",
 "inventory_storage",
 "macro_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CRUDE-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CRUDE-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Late-breaking signals pointing to Hormuz reopening/normalisation and reports of oil price declines may rapidly compress the risk premium and pull crude lower near-term.",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "inventory_storage",
 "macro_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CRUDE-001"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "high",
 "state_change": "bullish_to_neutral",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 80,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": true,
 "late_breaking_alert": true,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-CRUDE-001",
 "B-CRUDE-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 45,
 "B": 20,
 "C": 19,
 "D": 446,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 7,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 4,
 "stale_gt_24h_est": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LATE_BREAKING_INVALIDATION",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "level": "high",
 "description": "Very recent, higher-authority opposing signals (reopening/price-fall framing) are strong enough to cap conviction and raise reversal risk."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-CONTRADICTION_SPIKE",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "level": "high",
 "description": "Corpus contains both disruption/closure/blockade narratives and reopening/normalisation narratives inside the same short window."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-HEADLINE_ECHO_CONCENTRATION",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "level": "medium",
 "description": "Despite broad pickup, a large share of evidence remains lower-tier; treat fast-moving updates as headline-driven and prone to whipsaw."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Remain in neutral posture while late-breaking reopening/price-fall signals are unresolved against the broader disruption narrative."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal monitoring if additional independent sources confirm sustained reopening/normalisation and/or the disruption narratives de-accelerate."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain volatility watch while mixed geopolitical signals persist; expect abrupt intraday swings around shipping/security headlines."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If opposing signals continue to arrive within <=2h windows and contradiction remains elevated, treat the thesis as fragile and avoid directional commitment."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ]
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 5,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 5,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 5,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 5,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 25,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 13,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -13,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 18,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 11,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 2,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 1,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 1,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Scope locked to single market: crude_oil (explicit).",
 "Direction suppressed to neutral_mixed due to high contradiction + late-breaking opposing evidence inside ~2h of snapshot.",
 "State_change computed by inferring an earlier-in-window bullish bias (peak bullish pressure) transitioning to neutral under kill-switch conditions; no prior state memory was provided."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}