Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-LATE_BREAKING_INVALIDATION
- generated_at: 2026-04-18T22:40:00Z
- sentiment_word: Fragile
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 1
- kill_switch_markets_count: 1
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B-CRUDE-001 |
Geopolitical/maritime disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz and US–Iran enforcement actions is sustaining a near-term risk premium in crude. |
58 |
up |
fading |
24h |
true |
78 |
| crude_oil |
B-CRUDE-002 |
Late-breaking signals pointing to Hormuz reopening/normalisation and reports of oil price declines may rapidly compress the risk premium and pull crude lower near-term. |
54 |
down |
accelerating |
6h |
true |
78 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-2026-04-18T22:40:00Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-18T22:40:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CRUDE-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Geopolitical/maritime disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz and US\u2013Iran enforcement actions is sustaining a near-term risk premium in crude.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"opec_supply_policy",
"inventory_storage",
"macro_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CRUDE-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CRUDE-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Late-breaking signals pointing to Hormuz reopening/normalisation and reports of oil price declines may rapidly compress the risk premium and pull crude lower near-term.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"inventory_storage",
"macro_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CRUDE-001"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "high",
"state_change": "bullish_to_neutral",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 80,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": true,
"late_breaking_alert": true,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CRUDE-001",
"B-CRUDE-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 45,
"B": 20,
"C": 19,
"D": 446,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 7,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 4,
"stale_gt_24h_est": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LATE_BREAKING_INVALIDATION",
"market": "crude_oil",
"level": "high",
"description": "Very recent, higher-authority opposing signals (reopening/price-fall framing) are strong enough to cap conviction and raise reversal risk."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-CONTRADICTION_SPIKE",
"market": "crude_oil",
"level": "high",
"description": "Corpus contains both disruption/closure/blockade narratives and reopening/normalisation narratives inside the same short window."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-HEADLINE_ECHO_CONCENTRATION",
"market": "crude_oil",
"level": "medium",
"description": "Despite broad pickup, a large share of evidence remains lower-tier; treat fast-moving updates as headline-driven and prone to whipsaw."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Remain in neutral posture while late-breaking reopening/price-fall signals are unresolved against the broader disruption narrative."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal monitoring if additional independent sources confirm sustained reopening/normalisation and/or the disruption narratives de-accelerate."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain volatility watch while mixed geopolitical signals persist; expect abrupt intraday swings around shipping/security headlines."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If opposing signals continue to arrive within <=2h windows and contradiction remains elevated, treat the thesis as fragile and avoid directional commitment."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": [
"crude_oil"
]
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 25,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 13,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -13,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 18,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 11,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 2,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 1,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 1,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Scope locked to single market: crude_oil (explicit).",
"Direction suppressed to neutral_mixed due to high contradiction + late-breaking opposing evidence inside ~2h of snapshot.",
"State_change computed by inferring an earlier-in-window bullish bias (peak bullish pressure) transitioning to neutral under kill-switch conditions; no prior state memory was provided."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}