Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures (U3O8)
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: uranium
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: momentum_cooling (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-17 12:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| uranium |
B-UR-001 |
Uranium futures sentiment remains biased upward over the next 24h as nuclear policy/regulatory-reform narratives stay net-supportive. |
63 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
46 |
| uranium |
B-UR-002 |
Near-term (6h) sentiment skew stays positive, but incremental upside momentum is cooling after a prior surge. |
58 |
up |
fading |
6h |
false |
46 |
| uranium |
B-UR-003 |
Supply-chain / producer-adjustment chatter increases two-way risk and could cap near-term upside unless corroborated by broader reporting. |
52 |
mixed |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
46 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260417T120000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures (U3O8)",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Uranium futures sentiment remains biased upward over the next 24h as nuclear policy / regulatory-reform narratives stay net-supportive (demand-side framing dominates).",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"nuclear_policy",
"reactor_demand",
"energy_security"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term (6h) sentiment skew stays positive, but incremental upside momentum is cooling after a prior surge in policy/regulatory headlines.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"nuclear_policy",
"nuclear_innovation"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-003",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Supply-chain / producer-adjustment chatter (single-source outlier signals) increases two-way risk and could cap near-term upside unless corroborated by broader reporting.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"uranium_supply_contracting",
"geopolitical_supply_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 42,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-002",
"B-UR-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 50,
"B": 8,
"C": 15,
"D": 90,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signals": 0,
"fresh_6_24h_signals": 4,
"fresh_24_72h_signals": 1,
"stale_gt_72h_signals": 1
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_id": "RF-UR-001",
"market": "uranium",
"risk_type": "momentum_cooling",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Directional bias is still positive, but recent net-sentiment has rolled off from local peaks (weakening momentum without a confirmed reversal)."
},
{
"risk_id": "RF-UR-002",
"market": "uranium",
"risk_type": "single_source_outlier_weight",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "A small set of uranium supply/producer-adjustment items appears as single-source outliers; treat as volatility / whipsaw risk until corroborated."
},
{
"risk_id": "RF-UR-003",
"market": "uranium",
"risk_type": "policy_headline_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Policy/regulatory narratives are dominant drivers; these can flip quickly on procedural/legislative headlines even when the broader theme remains supportive."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain long-bias watch while directional_score_signed stays >= +20 and fresh evidence remains present in the latest 6h window."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate to reversal watch if contradiction_ratio rises materially (e.g., >0.18) AND 2+ independent opposing signals appear within a 6h window."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Heighten volatility watch if additional single-source supply/producer items cluster within 6h (outlier_count >= 2) without Tier-A corroboration."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Prefer flat stance only if directional_score_signed falls into the neutral band (-20 to +20) OR thesis_kill_switch becomes true."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -19,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 79,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 77,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 51,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 51,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 49,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 49,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 56,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 6,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to 'uranium'; analysis constrained to single market.",
"No explicit contradiction set provided in input (contradictions[] empty); reversal risk estimated from outlier/mix rather than direct opposing-trend records.",
"Source_tier_counts are approximate and may include overlap across trend evidence bundles.",
"Several non-uranium-dominant geopolitical items were observed in the broader trend set and were downweighted / not admitted to directional core for uranium."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}