Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures (U3O8)
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: uranium
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: momentum_cooling (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-17 12:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-001 Uranium futures sentiment remains biased upward over the next 24h as nuclear policy/regulatory-reform narratives stay net-supportive. 63 up stable 24h false 46
uranium B-UR-002 Near-term (6h) sentiment skew stays positive, but incremental upside momentum is cooling after a prior surge. 58 up fading 6h false 46
uranium B-UR-003 Supply-chain / producer-adjustment chatter increases two-way risk and could cap near-term upside unless corroborated by broader reporting. 52 mixed accelerating 24h false 46

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260417T120000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures (U3O8)",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Uranium futures sentiment remains biased upward over the next 24h as nuclear policy / regulatory-reform narratives stay net-supportive (demand-side framing dominates).",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "nuclear_policy",
 "reactor_demand",
 "energy_security"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Near-term (6h) sentiment skew stays positive, but incremental upside momentum is cooling after a prior surge in policy/regulatory headlines.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "nuclear_policy",
 "nuclear_innovation"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Supply-chain / producer-adjustment chatter (single-source outlier signals) increases two-way risk and could cap near-term upside unless corroborated by broader reporting.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "uranium_supply_contracting",
 "geopolitical_supply_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-001",
 "B-UR-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 42,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-001",
 "B-UR-002",
 "B-UR-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 50,
 "B": 8,
 "C": 15,
 "D": 90,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signals": 0,
 "fresh_6_24h_signals": 4,
 "fresh_24_72h_signals": 1,
 "stale_gt_72h_signals": 1
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-UR-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "risk_type": "momentum_cooling",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Directional bias is still positive, but recent net-sentiment has rolled off from local peaks (weakening momentum without a confirmed reversal)."
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-UR-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "risk_type": "single_source_outlier_weight",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "A small set of uranium supply/producer-adjustment items appears as single-source outliers; treat as volatility / whipsaw risk until corroborated."
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-UR-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "risk_type": "policy_headline_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Policy/regulatory narratives are dominant drivers; these can flip quickly on procedural/legislative headlines even when the broader theme remains supportive."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain long-bias watch while directional_score_signed stays >= +20 and fresh evidence remains present in the latest 6h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate to reversal watch if contradiction_ratio rises materially (e.g., >0.18) AND 2+ independent opposing signals appear within a 6h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Heighten volatility watch if additional single-source supply/producer items cluster within 6h (outlier_count >= 2) without Tier-A corroboration."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Prefer flat stance only if directional_score_signed falls into the neutral band (-20 to +20) OR thesis_kill_switch becomes true."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T15:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -19,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": -1,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 79,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 77,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 51,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 51,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 49,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 56,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 6,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to 'uranium'; analysis constrained to single market.",
 "No explicit contradiction set provided in input (contradictions[] empty); reversal risk estimated from outlier/mix rather than direct opposing-trend records.",
 "Source_tier_counts are approximate and may include overlap across trend evidence bundles.",
 "Several non-uranium-dominant geopolitical items were observed in the broader trend set and were downweighted / not admitted to directional core for uranium."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}