Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 4
- top_risk_flag: macro_counterevidence_present (severity: medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-17 12:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-SI-01 | Near-term silver sentiment is supported by industrial-demand narratives (notably solar manufacturing / electronics-related demand cues). | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 55 |
| silver | B-SI-02 | Investment-flow framing (silver investment demand proxies such as major silver trust / safe-haven allocation chatter) is mildly supportive over next 6–24h. | 58 | up | stable | 6h | false | 55 |
| silver | B-SI-03 | Macro headwinds (rate-expectations / policy-framework chatter) are meaningful counter-evidence that can cap upside and raise pullback risk within 6–24h. | 57 | down | stable | 24h | false | 55 |
| silver | B-SI-04 | Idiosyncratic supply/regulatory/single-source mining items add tail-risk rather than a stable directional driver. | 54 | mixed | fading | 24h | false | 55 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_silver_2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-01",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Near-term silver sentiment is supported by industrial-demand narratives (notably solar manufacturing / electronics-related demand cues) that are receiving fresh reinforcement.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"supply_chain"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-03"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-02",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Investment-flow framing (silver investment demand proxies such as major silver trust / safe-haven allocation chatter) is mildly supportive for silver over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"investment_flows",
"usd_strength",
"geopolitical_risk_proxy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-03"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-03",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Macro headwinds (rate-expectations / policy-framework chatter) remain meaningful counter-evidence that can cap upside in silver and raise pullback risk within 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"monetary_policy",
"real_rates",
"usd_strength"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-01",
"B-SI-02"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-04",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Idiosyncratic supply/regulatory/single-source mining items are present but are too fragmented to be a primary driver; they add tail-risk rather than a stable direction.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply",
"regulatory"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 45,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 25,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SI-01",
"B-SI-02",
"B-SI-03",
"B-SI-04"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 109,
"B": 10,
"C": 5,
"D": 376,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_evidence_records_est": 90,
"fresh_6_24h_evidence_records_est": 140,
"stale_over_24h_background_est": 290
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "macro_counterevidence_present",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Material negative macro/policy-rate expectation narratives coexist with bullish industrial/investment-flow narratives, elevating whipsaw risk."
},
{
"flag": "slow_burn_narrative_overlap",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Some bullish drivers are multi-day themes with fresh reinforcement; watch for fading attention after the surge window."
},
{
"flag": "single_source_tail_risks",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Multiple VIP/risk items are single-source and low-authority; treat as tail-risk noise unless corroborated."
},
{
"flag": "reversal_watch_required",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Hourly signal dipped into neutral territory earlier in the last 24h before recovering; indicates sensitivity to macro updates."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Bullish pressure remains >= bearish pressure across the next 2\u20134 hourly buckets AND contradiction ratio does not rise above ~0.60."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score falls back below +20 with concurrent contradiction ratio increase (>=0.55) in the most recent buckets."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Rapid alternation between neutral_mixed and bullish buckets within a 6-hour window persists (whipsaw regime)."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score compresses into [-10, +10] for >=4 consecutive hourly buckets (rangebound confirmation)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 11,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 11,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 11,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 12,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 13,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 12,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 11,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 12,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 34,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope locked to single market: silver (explicit in flight plan).",
"No explicit contradiction objects were provided; counterevidence inferred from mixed polarity across admitted trends.",
"State-change set to 'unchanged' because no reliable prior market-state memory was provided in input."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}