- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-17T22:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Near-term risk premium supports higher natural gas futures as LNG supply-chain and shipping-route security concerns stay elevated. |
60 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
57 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
De-escalation / flow-normalisation headlines plus supply-growth expectations cap upside in natural gas futures (risk-premium fade risk). |
55 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
57 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-003 |
Volatility remains elevated with narrative whipsaw risk (security escalation vs de-escalation headlines) dominating short-horizon price action. |
68 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
57 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis-natural_gas-20260417T223000Z-001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-17T22:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term risk premium supports higher natural gas futures as LNG supply-chain and shipping-route security concerns stay elevated.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Middle East shipping-route / security risk (Hormuz) raises LNG disruption premium",
"Qatar/LNG disruption narratives and broader energy-security escalation coverage"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 73,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "De-escalation / flow-normalisation headlines plus supply-growth expectations cap upside in natural gas futures (risk-premium fade risk).",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Signals indicating shipping lanes open / less immediate disruption risk",
"US LNG export growth / supply expansion framing (bearish supply-side)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-001"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Volatility remains elevated with narrative whipsaw risk (security escalation vs de-escalation headlines) dominating short-horizon price action.",
"probability_pct": 68,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"High-tempo geopolitical headline cadence",
"Mixed direction catalysts arriving within the same session"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 51,
"B": 26,
"C": 0,
"D": 168,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 2,
"fresh_6_24h": 9,
"fresh_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Same-day escalation (shipping/security, LNG disruption) and de-escalation (routes open / supply growth) signals increase chop risk."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "counterevidence_present",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Credible partial counter-signal cluster (de-escalation / supply expansion) likely caps conviction despite strong risk-premium mass."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "low_tier_amplification_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"note": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of supporting mentions are lower-tier sources (echo/over-amplification risk)."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "volatility_watch",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Geopolitical risk framing + supply-chain disruption narratives imply wider intraday swings."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh, independent Tier-A confirmations of LNG disruption / shipping security deterioration arrive within the next 6h without matching de-escalation."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If headline cadence remains high (security escalation/de-escalation alternating), expect unstable intraday regime regardless of direction."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If de-escalation/normalisation evidence accelerates (multiple independent updates in a short window), risk-premium fade could flip the 6\u201324h bias."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction/mixed evidence persists and directional score remains within +/-20 for 2+ consecutive hours."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 65,
"acceleration_score": 65,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -45,
"acceleration_score": -110,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 40,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 20,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -30,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -15,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 11,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit contradictions were supplied in input; counterevidence was inferred from de-escalation / supply-growth themed signals.",
"Timeseries buckets are conservative where evidence timestamps are sparse; low-evidence buckets intentionally carry low conviction and higher fragility."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}