• subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-17T22:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term risk premium supports higher natural gas futures as LNG supply-chain and shipping-route security concerns stay elevated. 60 up accelerating 6h false 57
natural_gas B-NG-002 De-escalation / flow-normalisation headlines plus supply-growth expectations cap upside in natural gas futures (risk-premium fade risk). 55 down stable 24h false 57
natural_gas B-NG-003 Volatility remains elevated with narrative whipsaw risk (security escalation vs de-escalation headlines) dominating short-horizon price action. 68 mixed stable 6h false 57
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis-natural_gas-20260417T223000Z-001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-17T22:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term risk premium supports higher natural gas futures as LNG supply-chain and shipping-route security concerns stay elevated.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Middle East shipping-route / security risk (Hormuz) raises LNG disruption premium",
 "Qatar/LNG disruption narratives and broader energy-security escalation coverage"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 73,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "De-escalation / flow-normalisation headlines plus supply-growth expectations cap upside in natural gas futures (risk-premium fade risk).",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Signals indicating shipping lanes open / less immediate disruption risk",
 "US LNG export growth / supply expansion framing (bearish supply-side)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-001"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-003",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Volatility remains elevated with narrative whipsaw risk (security escalation vs de-escalation headlines) dominating short-horizon price action.",
 "probability_pct": 68,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "High-tempo geopolitical headline cadence",
 "Mixed direction catalysts arriving within the same session"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 51,
 "B": 26,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 168,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 2,
 "fresh_6_24h": 9,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Same-day escalation (shipping/security, LNG disruption) and de-escalation (routes open / supply growth) signals increase chop risk."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "flag": "counterevidence_present",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Credible partial counter-signal cluster (de-escalation / supply expansion) likely caps conviction despite strong risk-premium mass."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "flag": "low_tier_amplification_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "note": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of supporting mentions are lower-tier sources (echo/over-amplification risk)."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "flag": "volatility_watch",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Geopolitical risk framing + supply-chain disruption narratives imply wider intraday swings."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh, independent Tier-A confirmations of LNG disruption / shipping security deterioration arrive within the next 6h without matching de-escalation."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If headline cadence remains high (security escalation/de-escalation alternating), expect unstable intraday regime regardless of direction."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If de-escalation/normalisation evidence accelerates (multiple independent updates in a short window), risk-premium fade could flip the 6\u201324h bias."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction/mixed evidence persists and directional score remains within +/-20 for 2+ consecutive hours."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": 65,
 "acceleration_score": 65,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -45,
 "acceleration_score": -110,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 40,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 20,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -30,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -15,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 11,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit contradictions were supplied in input; counterevidence was inferred from de-escalation / supply-growth themed signals.",
 "Timeseries buckets are conservative where evidence timestamps are sparse; low-evidence buckets intentionally carry low conviction and higher fragility."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}