Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-17 07:30 UTC
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Geopolitical escalation / LNG-route risk narratives are increasing upside tail-risk for natural gas (risk of supply/flow disruption), but are not yet translating into a clean, consensus directional price thesis. | 60 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 62 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-002 | Near-term natural gas volatility risk is elevated (headline-driven), with intraday direction prone to whipsaw rather than sustained trend. | 72 | mixed | accelerating | 24h | false | 62 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-003 | Incremental LNG infrastructure / logistics development signals could slightly reduce perceived near-term scarcity risk (soft bearish/flattening pressure), but the evidence is thin and single-source. | 38 | down | fading | 24h | false | 62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "cis_natural_gas_20260417T073000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-17T07:30:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Natural gas futures", "market_code": "natural_gas" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "natural_gas", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "regime_state": "rangebound", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-NG-001", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Geopolitical escalation / LNG-route risk narratives are increasing upside tail-risk for natural gas (risk of supply/flow disruption), but are not yet translating into a clean, consensus directional price thesis.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "energy_geopolitics", "lng_export_flows", "pipeline_infrastructure" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-NG-003" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 56, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-002", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Near-term natural gas volatility risk is elevated (headline-driven), with intraday direction prone to whipsaw rather than sustained trend.", "probability_pct": 72, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "energy_geopolitics", "lng_export_flows" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-003", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Incremental LNG infrastructure / logistics development signals could slightly reduce perceived near-term scarcity risk (soft bearish/flattening pressure), but the evidence is thin and single-source.", "probability_pct": 38, "direction": "down", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "lng_export_flows", "pipeline_infrastructure" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-NG-001", "B-NG-002" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 42, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 66, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "unclear", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-NG-001", "B-NG-002", "B-NG-003" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 92, "B": 4, "C": 0, "D": 146, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_share_0_1": 0.46, "fresh_6_24h_share_0_1": 0.34, "stale_gt_24h_share_0_1": 0.2 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-001", "market": "natural_gas", "label": "narrative_whipsaw", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Signal-set is dominated by fast-moving geopolitical narratives that can reverse quickly without warning; directionality remains mixed despite rising attention." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-002", "market": "natural_gas", "label": "data_sparsity_core_fundamentals", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Limited direct admitted evidence on storage, weather-demand, or domestic production balance within the provided corpus slice; conviction capped." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-003", "market": "natural_gas", "label": "echo_concentration_on_singletons", "severity": "low", "rationale": "Several LNG infrastructure/flow items are single-source VIP/risk-anomaly signals; treated as weak counter-pressure and not thesis-defining." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "If geopolitical/LNG-route headlines continue to print within the next 6 hours while no clear storage/weather counter-driver enters the admitted set." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If net directional score remains within +/-20 and conviction remains below 60 (rangebound mixed regime)." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If LNG-route/supply-disruption evidence strengthens with 2+ independent fresh confirmations and directional score rises to >= +20." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) de-escalation / supply-restoration signal appears from multiple independent sources, driving directional score back toward 0 or negative." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 19, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, 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"2026-04-17T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 39, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": -9, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 19, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 22, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -6, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 3, "signal_regime": "mixed_flat" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 5, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target scope set explicitly to natural_gas (single-market).", "Admitted signals are primarily geopolitical/LNG-route and infrastructure-risk narratives; limited explicit storage/weather/production fundamentals in the admitted set, capping directional conviction.", "source_tier_counts are aggregated from admitted trend evidence bundles and may include overlap across trends (not de-duplicated).", "No explicit opposing (bearish) multi-source counter-thesis detected; mixed/neutral state is driven by weak price-direction mapping and volatility-dominant drivers rather than contradiction spikes." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }