Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: lithium
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk
- generated_at: 2026-04-17T22:31:14Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
B-LI-001 |
Near-term (6h–24h) demand-side narrative remains supportive (EV adoption/policy + battery supply-chain focus), keeping lithium futures sentiment biased upward. |
64 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
44 |
| lithium |
B-LI-002 |
Upside is vulnerable to policy/demand air-pockets and supply-side easing narratives (e.g., extraction / scaling themes), limiting clean follow-through despite bullish bias. |
58 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_lithium_2026-04-17T22:31:14Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-17T22:31:14Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term (6h\u201324h) demand-side narrative remains supportive (EV adoption/policy + battery supply-chain focus), keeping lithium futures sentiment biased upward.",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption/policy reinforcement trendflow (broad, multi-source, mostly positive sentiment)",
"Lithium market dynamics / valuation narrative clustering (explicit lithium-linked trend)",
"Fresh late-day evidence updates inside the lithium-linked trend clusters"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Upside is vulnerable to policy/demand air-pockets and supply-side easing narratives (e.g., extraction / scaling themes), limiting clean follow-through despite bullish bias.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Fresh, small-count negative policy/EV-demand risk signals (singleton/low-diversity items)",
"Supply-chain securing / mining scaling themes can be interpreted as future supply relief",
"Thin, uneven hour-to-hour signal density (whipsaw risk)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-001"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 42,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-001",
"B-LI-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 32,
"B": 4,
"C": 8,
"D": 170,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_0_2h": 1,
"signals_2_6h": 0,
"signals_6_24h": 10,
"signals_24_72h": 0,
"signals_over_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Last-24h signal buckets alternate between bullish and bearish impulses; directional bias exists but is not smooth."
},
{
"flag": "policy_headline_sensitivity",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several fresh negative policy/EV-demand items exist (often low-diversity/singleton), raising reversal risk if they broaden."
},
{
"flag": "indirect_driver_mapping",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Portions of admitted support are EV/battery-complex proxies rather than direct lithium price/flow prints; conviction moderated accordingly."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If the next 6h window adds 2+ independent lithium-linked confirmations (not just generic EV news) without a rise in fresh counterevidence."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh negative policy/demand evidence broadens (2+ independent sources within a 2h window) and net sentiment turns negative."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio remains elevated (mixed buckets) while fresh evidence density stays thin hour-to-hour."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If subsequent buckets revert to near-zero net sentiment (rangebound) with no clear lithium-specific catalyst."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 55,
"net_sentiment_score": -45,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.8462,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 45,
"acceleration_score": 45,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -45,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": -40,
"velocity_score": -40,
"acceleration_score": -40,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.8333,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 40,
"acceleration_score": 80,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": -35,
"velocity_score": -35,
"acceleration_score": -75,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.8182,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 35,
"acceleration_score": 70,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -35,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 65,
"acceleration_score": 65,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1176,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -70,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.125,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -25,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1818,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": -40,
"velocity_score": -75,
"acceleration_score": -50,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.8333,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 40,
"acceleration_score": 100,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -40,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 35,
"acceleration_score": 35,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1818,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": -35,
"velocity_score": -70,
"acceleration_score": -100,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.8182,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 65,
"acceleration_score": 100,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -30,
"acceleration_score": -95,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 30,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": -35,
"velocity_score": -35,
"acceleration_score": -35,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.8182,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 90,
"acceleration_score": 100,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1333,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -45,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 90,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 6,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No per-record v2 trend_physics provided in input; used available proxies (sentiment, velocity_hint, evidence_count, recency proxies) for mass/recency synthesis.",
"Timeseries buckets are built from available signal timestamps (trend/vip/risk timestamps + latest evidence recency proxies), not full tick-level price-linked events."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}