Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: lithium
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-17T06:45:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-LI-001 | Near-term lithium futures sentiment remains net supportive (up-bias) as EV adoption + battery capacity expansion narratives dominate the freshest discussion. | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 43 |
| lithium | B-LI-002 | Supply-side improvement narratives (DLE / project development / capacity adds) are present enough to cap conviction and keep reversal risk above low. | 55 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 43 |
| lithium | B-LI-003 | Policy/regulatory headlines are a meaningful volatility amplifier for lithium-linked supply chain perception over the next 24h. | 58 | mixed | accelerating | 24h | false | 43 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-2026-04-17T06:45:00Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-17T06:45:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium futures", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 69, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 43, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-LI-001", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Near-term lithium futures sentiment remains net supportive (up-bias) as EV adoption + battery capacity expansion narratives dominate the freshest discussion.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "EV adoption / demand narrative density elevated (multi-source, fresh)", "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion themes recurring", "Policy/incentives discussion supportive on balance" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Supply-side expansion expectations (e.g., DLE / mining capacity) can temper price-upside narrative", "Isolated policy/regulatory uncertainty signals can introduce short-term whipsaw" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-002", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Supply-side improvement narratives (DLE / project development / capacity adds) are present enough to cap conviction and keep reversal risk above low.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) technology / efficiency improvement framing", "Mining/project-development singleton items intermittently appearing", "Broader 'energy transition' narrative encouraging capacity buildout" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Demand-side mass remains stronger and fresher than explicit bearish price calls" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-003", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Policy/regulatory headlines are a meaningful volatility amplifier for lithium-linked supply chain perception over the next 24h.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Regulatory/political risk items appearing as short-fuse, single-source signals", "Narrative sensitivity to permitting/standards and subsidy direction" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Most policy signals are not yet corroborated (singleton/echo-risk) and may not persist" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 76, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 43, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-LI-001", "B-LI-002", "B-LI-003" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 31, "B": 6, "C": 6, "D": 128, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 18, "fresh_6_24h": 46, "stale_24_72h": 44, "stale_over_72h": 63 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "market": "lithium", "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "notes": "Demand-side bullish mass is broad, but supply-expansion + policy headlines can rapidly shift tone intraday." }, { "market": "lithium", "flag": "echo_concentration_in_vip_lane", "severity": "low", "notes": "Several VIP/outlier items are single-source; treat as watchlist signals unless corroborated." }, { "market": "lithium", "flag": "policy_regulatory_volatility", "severity": "medium", "notes": "Short-fuse regulatory/political items can increase reversal risk even without large evidence mass." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "lithium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fresh multi-source demand/EV/battery-capacity signals persist over the next 6h without a rise in opposing evidence." }, { "market": "lithium", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If \u22652 independent fresh signals (\u22642h) frame supply expansion / demand slowdown as dominant, or if contradiction ratio spikes materially." }, { "market": "lithium", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If policy/regulatory items move from singleton to corroborated (2+ sources) inside the next 24h." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "lithium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T06:45:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T07:45:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T07:45:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T08:45:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 19, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, 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56, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T10:45:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T11:45:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T11:45:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T12:45:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 23, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T12:45:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T13:45:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T13:45:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T14:45:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 11, "bullish_pressure_score": 25, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 11, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T14:45:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T15:45:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T15:45:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T16:45:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T16:45:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T17:45:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 13, "bullish_pressure_score": 27, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 13, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, 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"2026-04-16T19:45:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T20:45:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 29, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T20:45:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T21:45:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 31, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T21:45:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T22:45:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 19, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 19, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T22:45:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T23:45:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T23:45:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T00:45:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T00:45:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T01:45:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T01:45:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T02:45:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 39, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T02:45:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T03:45:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T03:45:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T04:45:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 45, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T04:45:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T05:45:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 49, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 8, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T05:45:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T06:45:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 10, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 42, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -18, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 14, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 10, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=lithium.", "No explicit contradiction objects provided; counter-pressure inferred from supply-expansion and policy-volatility themes rather than direct opposing price calls.", "VIP/risk anomalies include multiple singleton sources; treated as volatility/reversal watch rather than primary directional drivers." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }