Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-04-17T00:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-001 Gold futures are more likely to remain rangebound (with only a slight upside skew) because the available drivers are dominated by stale geopolitical-risk and policy narratives without fresh confirmation in the last 72 hours. 54% mixed fading 24h false 72
gold B-GOLD-002 Over the next 6 hours, directional moves in gold futures are less likely to persist because there is effectively no fresh evidence in-window to anchor momentum. 57% flat stable 6h false 72

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "snap_2026-04-17T00:00:00Z_gold_6B",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures are more likely to remain rangebound (with only a slight upside skew) because the available drivers are dominated by stale geopolitical-risk and policy narratives without fresh confirmation in the last 72 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_risk",
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength",
 "central_bank_flows",
 "etf_investment_flows",
 "physical_gold_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 38,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Over the next 6 hours, directional moves in gold futures are less likely to persist because there is effectively no fresh evidence in-window to anchor momentum.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 40,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 45,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-GOLD-001",
 "B-GOLD-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 15,
 "B": 1,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 22,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 0,
 "fresh_6_24h": 0,
 "stale_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 6
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "rationale": "Most admitted supporting narratives are >72h old versus the snapshot time; freshness-weighting strongly suppresses directional conviction."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_recent_window",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "rationale": "No materialised evidence records fall inside the last 24h buckets used for the timeseries layer; near-term momentum inference is degraded."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "High fragility with low freshness means any new real-rates/USD/flows print could rapidly shift direction from neutral."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Remain in this label-state until at least 3 fresh (<=24h) gold-relevant signals appear across real rates, USD, ETF/CB flows, or physical demand."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if a fresh macro print or a new high-authority geopolitical escalation signal appears and is corroborated by a second independent source within 2 hours."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Upgrade only if fresh counter-direction evidence mass emerges (2+ independent records within 2h) against the next established directional bias."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T22:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 4,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to market_code=gold; scope_mode forced to single_market.",
 "Admitted drivers are predominantly geopolitical-risk and policy narratives dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09; as of 2026-04-17T00:00:00Z these are >72h old and treated as background only.",
 "Client guardrails: require_directional_conviction=true and suppress_direction_if_degraded=true; result held at neutral_mixed with weakened momentum due to stale suppression.",
 "No late-breaking invalidation sentinel fired: no corroborated fresh opposing evidence <=2h for gold was present in the admitted corpus."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}