Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-trade_policy_whipsaw (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-17T07:01:08Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-001 Near-term copper futures sentiment skews upward as supply-tightness/disruption narratives and trade-policy frictions dominate recent evidence. 63 up accelerating 6h false 42
copper B-copper-002 Over next 24h, demand-side framing (China manufacturing/infrastructure + electrification) remains supportive; bullish unless clear opposing macro shock appears. 60 up stable 24h false 42
copper B-copper-003 Reversal risk non-trivial: policy/trade and permitting/regulatory headlines can induce fast sentiment flips despite current bullish skew. 44 mixed stable 24h false 42

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_copper_20260417T070108Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-17T07:01:08Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term copper futures sentiment skews upward as supply-tightness / disruption narratives and trade-policy frictions dominate the most recent evidence window.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks",
 "trade_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Potential supply-relief headlines (e.g., higher planned sales/exports) could quickly blunt tightness narrative if corroborated by multiple independent sources."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, demand-side framing (China manufacturing/infrastructure + electrification/energy-transition pull) remains supportive, keeping the balance of narratives bullish unless a clear opposing macro shock appears.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "china_policy",
 "energy_transition_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Fresh, high-mass evidence of demand slowdown (industrial production / construction) within the last 6\u201324h would weaken this thesis."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-003",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Reversal risk is non-trivial: policy/trade and permitting/regulatory headlines can induce fast sentiment flips despite the current bullish skew.",
 "probability_pct": 44,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "regulatory_trigger"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If the next 6\u201312h adds broad, consistent confirmation without new opposing signals, reversal odds fall."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-001",
 "B-copper-002",
 "B-copper-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 108,
 "B": 19,
 "C": 7,
 "D": 334,
 "U": 0,
 "note": "Approximate aggregate derived from admitted trend-level authority_tier_counts; may double-count overlapping records across trends."
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 34,
 "fresh_6_24h": 86,
 "stale_24_72h": 61,
 "stale_72h_plus": 29,
 "note": "Approximate mix inferred from trend evidence_recency_proxy windows and sample freshness flags; exact per-record bucketing not fully materialised in this payload."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-trade_policy_whipsaw",
 "market": "copper",
 "level": "medium",
 "detail": "Trade-policy / export-control / tariff narrative intensity is elevated; can flip sentiment quickly even when underlying thesis is bullish."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-regulatory_permitting_noise",
 "market": "copper",
 "level": "medium",
 "detail": "Regulatory/permitting signals present; may introduce sudden supply-side headline risk (either tightening or relief), increasing fragility."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-cross_domain_driver_blend",
 "market": "copper",
 "level": "low",
 "detail": "A portion of bullish mass comes from broad energy-transition/infrastructure narratives; still supportive but less directly price-falsifiable than explicit copper supply/demand items."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while hourly directional_score_signed remains >= +20 and no fresh opposing cluster (2+ independent signals within 2h) emerges."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if contradiction_ratio rises materially or if directional_score_signed drops below +20 across 2+ consecutive hourly buckets."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Expect volatility around regulatory/trade headlines; treat sudden single-source spikes as fragile until corroborated."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 63,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 81,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 63,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 66,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 83,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 84,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 85,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 71,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 85,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 71,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 72,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 1,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 4,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as copper; scope constrained to single_market.",
 "No explicit contradictory trend objects provided in input; reversal risk set to medium primarily from policy/regulatory headline sensitivity rather than observed counter-evidence.",
 "state_change computed vs unknown_prior (treated as neutral baseline) -> new_bullish."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}