Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-trade_policy_whipsaw (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-17T07:01:08Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-001 |
Near-term copper futures sentiment skews upward as supply-tightness/disruption narratives and trade-policy frictions dominate recent evidence. |
63 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
42 |
| copper |
B-copper-002 |
Over next 24h, demand-side framing (China manufacturing/infrastructure + electrification) remains supportive; bullish unless clear opposing macro shock appears. |
60 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
42 |
| copper |
B-copper-003 |
Reversal risk non-trivial: policy/trade and permitting/regulatory headlines can induce fast sentiment flips despite current bullish skew. |
44 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
42 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_copper_20260417T070108Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-17T07:01:08Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term copper futures sentiment skews upward as supply-tightness / disruption narratives and trade-policy frictions dominate the most recent evidence window.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply_disruption",
"inventory_exchange_stocks",
"trade_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Potential supply-relief headlines (e.g., higher planned sales/exports) could quickly blunt tightness narrative if corroborated by multiple independent sources."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-002",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, demand-side framing (China manufacturing/infrastructure + electrification/energy-transition pull) remains supportive, keeping the balance of narratives bullish unless a clear opposing macro shock appears.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"china_policy",
"energy_transition_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fresh, high-mass evidence of demand slowdown (industrial production / construction) within the last 6\u201324h would weaken this thesis."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-003",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Reversal risk is non-trivial: policy/trade and permitting/regulatory headlines can induce fast sentiment flips despite the current bullish skew.",
"probability_pct": 44,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy",
"regulatory_trigger"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If the next 6\u201312h adds broad, consistent confirmation without new opposing signals, reversal odds fall."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-001",
"B-copper-002",
"B-copper-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 108,
"B": 19,
"C": 7,
"D": 334,
"U": 0,
"note": "Approximate aggregate derived from admitted trend-level authority_tier_counts; may double-count overlapping records across trends."
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 34,
"fresh_6_24h": 86,
"stale_24_72h": 61,
"stale_72h_plus": 29,
"note": "Approximate mix inferred from trend evidence_recency_proxy windows and sample freshness flags; exact per-record bucketing not fully materialised in this payload."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-trade_policy_whipsaw",
"market": "copper",
"level": "medium",
"detail": "Trade-policy / export-control / tariff narrative intensity is elevated; can flip sentiment quickly even when underlying thesis is bullish."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-regulatory_permitting_noise",
"market": "copper",
"level": "medium",
"detail": "Regulatory/permitting signals present; may introduce sudden supply-side headline risk (either tightening or relief), increasing fragility."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-cross_domain_driver_blend",
"market": "copper",
"level": "low",
"detail": "A portion of bullish mass comes from broad energy-transition/infrastructure narratives; still supportive but less directly price-falsifiable than explicit copper supply/demand items."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while hourly directional_score_signed remains >= +20 and no fresh opposing cluster (2+ independent signals within 2h) emerges."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if contradiction_ratio rises materially or if directional_score_signed drops below +20 across 2+ consecutive hourly buckets."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Expect volatility around regulatory/trade headlines; treat sudden single-source spikes as fragile until corroborated."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-16T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 63,
"bullish_pressure_score": 81,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 63,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 66,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68,
"bullish_pressure_score": 83,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 84,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 72,
"bullish_pressure_score": 85,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 71,
"bullish_pressure_score": 85,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 71,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 72,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as copper; scope constrained to single_market.",
"No explicit contradictory trend objects provided in input; reversal risk set to medium primarily from policy/regulatory headline sensitivity rather than observed counter-evidence.",
"state_change computed vs unknown_prior (treated as neutral baseline) -> new_bullish."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}