- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-03-17T16:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| uranium |
B-UR-24H-001 |
Over the next 24h, uranium price pressure is biased upward as pro-nuclear policy/regulatory signals and fuel-cycle/security narratives remain supportive, while supply-chain/geopolitical risk narratives stay elevated. |
63 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
45 |
| uranium |
B-UR-6H-001 |
Over the next 6h, bias remains mildly upward but is headline-sensitive; volatility risk is elevated due to policy/geopolitical narrative churn rather than clean, price-confirmed flow. |
58 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
45 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-uranium-20260317T160000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-24H-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, uranium price pressure is biased upward as pro-nuclear policy/regulatory signals and fuel-cycle/security narratives remain supportive, while supply-chain/geopolitical risk narratives stay elevated.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"policy_nuclear",
"reactor_demand",
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"supply_contracting"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Low-authority single-source bursts can fade quickly (noise/whipsaw risk)."
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-6H-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, bias remains mildly upward but is headline-sensitive; volatility risk is elevated due to policy/geopolitical narrative churn rather than clean, price-confirmed flow.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"policy_nuclear",
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"inventory"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If fresh counter-headlines emerge, the signal can revert toward flat quickly."
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-24H-001",
"B-UR-6H-001"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Portions of the bullish narrative are persistent/slow-burn (multi-week), so stale evidence was downweighted to avoid overconfidence."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_noise",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several very recent signals are single-source / lower-tier domains (VIP lane), increasing fragility and whipsaw risk."
},
{
"flag": "policy_headline_sensitivity",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directionality is meaningfully driven by policy/regulatory narrative, which can flip quickly on new statements/delays."
},
{
"flag": "geopolitical_supply_shock_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Supply-chain/geopolitical framing supports upside bias but also raises gap/volatility risk (non-linear outcomes)."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh, high-authority confirmation continues (>=2 independent Tier-A style items within ~12h) without credible opposing signals, bullish bias remains favoured."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional single-source bursts appear (VIP-style) or geopolitical headlines cluster, treat as volatility regime risk even if direction stays bullish."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh opposing (bearish) high-authority signal appears within <=2h and contradiction rises materially, downgrade toward neutral_mixed."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If incoming signals stall and only stale narratives remain, directional edge decays and the state trends toward neutral_mixed."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 9,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 4,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=uranium.",
"No explicit contradiction objects were provided; reversal risk is driven by fragility (source-quality dispersion + headline sensitivity) rather than direct counter-signals.",
"Unmapped/ignored signals (not confidently uranium-linked) exist in VIP lane; they were not force-mapped to avoid false attribution."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}