• subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-03-17T16:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-24H-001 Over the next 24h, uranium price pressure is biased upward as pro-nuclear policy/regulatory signals and fuel-cycle/security narratives remain supportive, while supply-chain/geopolitical risk narratives stay elevated. 63 up accelerating 24h false 45
uranium B-UR-6H-001 Over the next 6h, bias remains mildly upward but is headline-sensitive; volatility risk is elevated due to policy/geopolitical narrative churn rather than clean, price-confirmed flow. 58 up stable 6h false 45
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-uranium-20260317T160000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-24H-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, uranium price pressure is biased upward as pro-nuclear policy/regulatory signals and fuel-cycle/security narratives remain supportive, while supply-chain/geopolitical risk narratives stay elevated.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "policy_nuclear",
 "reactor_demand",
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "supply_contracting"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Low-authority single-source bursts can fade quickly (noise/whipsaw risk)."
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-6H-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, bias remains mildly upward but is headline-sensitive; volatility risk is elevated due to policy/geopolitical narrative churn rather than clean, price-confirmed flow.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "policy_nuclear",
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "inventory"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If fresh counter-headlines emerge, the signal can revert toward flat quickly."
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-24H-001",
 "B-UR-6H-001"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Portions of the bullish narrative are persistent/slow-burn (multi-week), so stale evidence was downweighted to avoid overconfidence."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_noise",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Several very recent signals are single-source / lower-tier domains (VIP lane), increasing fragility and whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "policy_headline_sensitivity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Directionality is meaningfully driven by policy/regulatory narrative, which can flip quickly on new statements/delays."
 },
 {
 "flag": "geopolitical_supply_shock_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Supply-chain/geopolitical framing supports upside bias but also raises gap/volatility risk (non-linear outcomes)."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh, high-authority confirmation continues (>=2 independent Tier-A style items within ~12h) without credible opposing signals, bullish bias remains favoured."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional single-source bursts appear (VIP-style) or geopolitical headlines cluster, treat as volatility regime risk even if direction stays bullish."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh opposing (bearish) high-authority signal appears within <=2h and contradiction rises materially, downgrade toward neutral_mixed."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If incoming signals stall and only stale narratives remain, directional edge decays and the state trends toward neutral_mixed."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 9,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 4,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=uranium.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects were provided; reversal risk is driven by fragility (source-quality dispersion + headline sensitivity) rather than direct counter-signals.",
 "Unmapped/ignored signals (not confidently uranium-linked) exist in VIP lane; they were not force-mapped to avoid false attribution."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}