Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: silver
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: momentum_cooling_post_burst
  • generated_at: 2026-03-17T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-silver-24h-001 Silver futures have a bullish bias over the next 24h, supported by safe-haven demand and interest-rate/real-rate expectation narratives. 62 up stable 24h false 64
silver B-silver-6h-002 Over the next 6h, silver sentiment remains net-positive but is cooling from a recent information burst; follow-through is less certain without fresh catalysts. 57 up fading 6h false 64
silver B-silver-risk-003 Reversal risk is elevated to medium because the bullish case is macro-driven and can flip quickly; legal/compliance seed risks add fragility but are low-confidence. 55 mixed stable 24h false 64

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_silver_20260317T120000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-24h-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Silver futures have a bullish bias over the next 24h, supported by safe-haven demand and interest-rate/real-rate expectation narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "safe-haven flows / precious-metals allocation",
 "interest-rate expectations and real-rate sensitivity",
 "precious-metals ETF/flows narrative",
 "mining / supply-side developments (background)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "USD strength re-assertion",
 "real yields rising / hawkish policy repricing",
 "risk-on swing reducing safe-haven demand"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-6h-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, silver sentiment remains net-positive but is cooling from a recent information burst; follow-through is less certain without fresh catalysts.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "recent macro/safe-haven signal cluster (last ~6h)",
 "COMEX/market microstructure attention (background)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "late-breaking hawkish macro surprise",
 "rapid USD bid / risk-on reversal"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-risk-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Reversal risk is elevated to medium because the bullish case is macro-driven and can flip quickly; legal/compliance seed risks add fragility but are low-confidence.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "macro sensitivity (USD + rates)",
 "thin/seed-level risk anomalies (low-confidence)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "no strong bearish counter-signal detected in admitted trend set"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-silver-24h-001",
 "B-silver-6h-002",
 "B-silver-risk-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "momentum_cooling_post_burst",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Recent sentiment peak appears to have passed; absence of newer catalysts increases whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "macro_dependency_usd_rates",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Primary drivers are macro (USD/real rates/safe-haven). These can invert quickly on policy repricing."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "authority_mix_quality_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Signal corpus includes a meaningful low-authority share; conviction capped despite strong volume."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "seed_level_legal_risk_anomalies",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Very recent compliance-gap anomalies present but low-confidence and with non-materialised evidence; treated as fragility add-on, not directional."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain long-bias watch while directional_score_signed stays >= +20 and contradiction_ratio stays <= 0.25 over the next 6\u201324h."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Reversal watch if directional_score_signed falls below +20 within any 2 consecutive hourly buckets OR if a fresh (<=2h) high-authority bearish macro signal appears."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Volatility watch if contradiction_ratio rises above 0.30 or if additional risk anomalies cluster within a 2h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Stay-flat bias if net signal returns to neutral band (directional_score_signed between -20 and +20) with no fresh catalysts."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 21,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
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 "velocity_score": -6,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": true,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 65,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:30:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 79,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:30:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 69,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:30:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 67,
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 "net_sentiment_score": 67,
 "velocity_score": -2,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 14,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 14,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 14,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 14,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 14,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 14,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 80,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 28,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code='silver'.",
 "No explicit per-trend v2 physics/trend_state_memory present in provided payload; used evidence_recency_proxy.newest_timestamp + temporal_profile/velocity_hint for recency-weighting approximations.",
 "No admitted fresh opposing-direction catalyst met late-breaking invalidation sentinel thresholds; kill-switch remains off."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}