Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 4
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw
- generated_at: 2026-03-17T16:50:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Near-term risk premium remains supported by LNG/shipping and geopolitics-linked supply disruption narratives, biasing natural gas futures upward. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
68 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
If geopolitical headlines fail to escalate (or de-escalate quickly), the risk premium can fade, producing a pullback/mean-reversion in natural gas futures. |
42 |
down |
stable |
6h |
false |
68 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-003 |
Over the next 24h, the dominant impulse remains upward-biased but fragile: continued headline flow sustains bullish pressure, while any de-escalation or stabilisation narrative raises reversal risk. |
60 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
68 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-004 |
Over the next 24h, absent follow-through from fresh high-authority sources, the current narrative cluster risks becoming stale-overhang (price impact decays). |
40 |
mixed |
fading |
24h |
false |
68 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260317T165000Z-natural_gas",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T16:50:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term risk premium remains supported by LNG/shipping and geopolitics-linked supply disruption narratives, biasing natural gas futures upward.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical escalation / shipping-lane risk (Iran/US-related narratives)",
"LNG supply disruption narratives (QatarEnergy / LNG infrastructure mentions)",
"European gas supply risk spillover (Gazprom-related dispute narratives)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "If geopolitical headlines fail to escalate (or de-escalate quickly), the risk premium can fade, producing a pullback/mean-reversion in natural gas futures.",
"probability_pct": 42,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"headline-driven premium is reversible",
"limited direct confirmation from core natgas fundamentals (weather/storage/pipeline flows) in admitted inputs"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-001"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, the dominant impulse remains upward-biased but fragile: continued headline flow sustains bullish pressure, while any de-escalation or stabilisation narrative raises reversal risk.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"persistent geopolitical + LNG transport disruption narrative cluster",
"recent evidence recency (multiple trends show newest evidence timestamps close to snapshot time)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-004"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-004",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, absent follow-through from fresh high-authority sources, the current narrative cluster risks becoming stale-overhang (price impact decays).",
"probability_pct": 40,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"long-burn narrative presence (>7d spans in some trend evidence bundles)",
"high share of lower-tier/echo-risk sources in parts of the bundle"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-003"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Directional bias is materially headline/geopolitics-driven and can reverse quickly on de-escalation."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Core natural-gas drivers requested in flight plan (weather demand, storage, pipeline flows) are not strongly represented in admitted evidence; confidence capped."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"description": "Some supporting narratives show multi-day to >7d evidence spans; without fresh confirmation, price impact may decay."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh corroboration of LNG/shipping disruption or geopolitical escalation within the next 6h keeps net directional score >= +20."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "A credible de-escalation / supply-stabilisation signal appears (<=2h) while contradiction rises and directional score falls toward neutral (>-20 and <+20)."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Rapid headline cadence persists (multiple high-heat trend updates clustered in a few hours), keeping fragility >= 65."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
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"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
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},
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{
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{
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{
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}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": true,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": [
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{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 51,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 51,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 57,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 57,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 70,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"No explicit contradictions provided in input; contradiction_ratio values are conservative proxies based on mixed driver coverage and headline-driven fragility.",
"One risk_anomaly item appears timestamped after snapshot time; it was excluded from recency-critical synthesis to avoid future-time leakage."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}