Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 4
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw
  • generated_at: 2026-03-17T16:50:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term risk premium remains supported by LNG/shipping and geopolitics-linked supply disruption narratives, biasing natural gas futures upward. 58 up accelerating 6h false 68
natural_gas B-NG-002 If geopolitical headlines fail to escalate (or de-escalate quickly), the risk premium can fade, producing a pullback/mean-reversion in natural gas futures. 42 down stable 6h false 68
natural_gas B-NG-003 Over the next 24h, the dominant impulse remains upward-biased but fragile: continued headline flow sustains bullish pressure, while any de-escalation or stabilisation narrative raises reversal risk. 60 up stable 24h false 68
natural_gas B-NG-004 Over the next 24h, absent follow-through from fresh high-authority sources, the current narrative cluster risks becoming stale-overhang (price impact decays). 40 mixed fading 24h false 68

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260317T165000Z-natural_gas",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T16:50:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term risk premium remains supported by LNG/shipping and geopolitics-linked supply disruption narratives, biasing natural gas futures upward.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical escalation / shipping-lane risk (Iran/US-related narratives)",
 "LNG supply disruption narratives (QatarEnergy / LNG infrastructure mentions)",
 "European gas supply risk spillover (Gazprom-related dispute narratives)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-002"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "If geopolitical headlines fail to escalate (or de-escalate quickly), the risk premium can fade, producing a pullback/mean-reversion in natural gas futures.",
 "probability_pct": 42,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "headline-driven premium is reversible",
 "limited direct confirmation from core natgas fundamentals (weather/storage/pipeline flows) in admitted inputs"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-001"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-003",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, the dominant impulse remains upward-biased but fragile: continued headline flow sustains bullish pressure, while any de-escalation or stabilisation narrative raises reversal risk.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "persistent geopolitical + LNG transport disruption narrative cluster",
 "recent evidence recency (multiple trends show newest evidence timestamps close to snapshot time)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-004"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-004",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, absent follow-through from fresh high-authority sources, the current narrative cluster risks becoming stale-overhang (price impact decays).",
 "probability_pct": 40,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "long-burn narrative presence (>7d spans in some trend evidence bundles)",
 "high share of lower-tier/echo-risk sources in parts of the bundle"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Directional bias is materially headline/geopolitics-driven and can reverse quickly on de-escalation."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Core natural-gas drivers requested in flight plan (weather demand, storage, pipeline flows) are not strongly represented in admitted evidence; confidence capped."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-NG-003",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "description": "Some supporting narratives show multi-day to >7d evidence spans; without fresh confirmation, price impact may decay."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh corroboration of LNG/shipping disruption or geopolitical escalation within the next 6h keeps net directional score >= +20."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "A credible de-escalation / supply-stabilisation signal appears (<=2h) while contradiction rises and directional score falls toward neutral (>-20 and <+20)."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Rapid headline cadence persists (multiple high-heat trend updates clustered in a few hours), keeping fragility >= 65."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
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 ]
 },
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 51,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 51,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 57,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 57,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 70,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
 "No explicit contradictions provided in input; contradiction_ratio values are conservative proxies based on mixed driver coverage and headline-driven fragility.",
 "One risk_anomaly item appears timestamped after snapshot time; it was excluded from recency-critical synthesis to avoid future-time leakage."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}