Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_weather_storage (severity: medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-17T10:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Near-term upside skew persists for natural gas as LNG/geopolitical disruption narratives raise perceived supply tightness / tail-risk premia. |
60 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
68 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Conviction capped: dominant drivers are geopolitical/LNG narratives rather than direct US demand/storage; rally risk more volatility-led than fundamentals-led within 24h. |
62 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
68 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-003 |
Reversal risk elevated-to-medium because the bullish impulse is late-surge/headline-driven; absent fresh confirmation, sentiment may mean-revert after the peak-bucket impulse. |
55 |
flat |
fading |
6h |
false |
68 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_natural_gas_20260317T100500Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T10:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term upside skew persists for natural gas as LNG/geopolitical disruption narratives raise perceived supply tightness / tail-risk premia.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical developments impacting energy markets (broad, late-surge)",
"LNG supply disruption / maritime transportation dynamics themes (Qatar-linked)",
"natural gas market-specific geopolitical narrative cluster"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"lack of direct, fresh US weather/storage/production datapoint signals in admitted feed",
"de-escalation headline risk (rapid sentiment decay)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Conviction is capped because the dominant drivers are geopolitical/LNG narratives rather than direct US demand (weather) or storage tightness signals; rally risk is more volatility-led than fundamentals-led within 24h.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"driver-arena sparsity for weather_demand/storage in current admitted signals",
"authority mix skew and echo-risk flags in several single-source VIP/risk items"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"any confirmed, high-authority outage/shipping disruption update would raise directional conviction"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Reversal risk is elevated-to-medium because the bullish impulse is late-surge/headline-driven; absent fresh confirmation, sentiment may mean-revert after the peak-bucket impulse.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"late-surge temporal profiles in the main energy/geopolitics clusters",
"thin dedicated natural-gas fundamentals coverage in the input bundle"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"continuation of fresh escalation headlines or new confirmed LNG disruption"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002",
"B-NG-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_weather_storage",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "natural_gas",
"note": "Current admitted drivers are dominated by geopolitical/LNG narratives; direct US weather_demand/storage confirmation signals are not prominent in this input slice."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "natural_gas",
"note": "Several supporting narratives have multi-day spans; conviction capped and momentum marked weakening despite recent headline refreshes."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "natural_gas",
"note": "Late-surge geopolitics clusters can invert quickly on de-escalation; reversal risk kept at medium."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh high-authority confirmation of LNG disruption / shipping constraint emerges within the next 6h while contradiction remains low."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If headline cadence stays high (late-surge persists) but fundamentals signals remain sparse."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh de-escalation headlines arrive and the net directional score fades for 2\u20133 consecutive hourly buckets."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 47,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No trend_physics/trend_state_memory fields present in input; legacy heuristic scoring applied.",
"Contradictions array empty; contradiction_ratio held low-to-moderate and driven by driver-mix uncertainty rather than explicit counter-signals.",
"State change set to new_bullish with unknown prior-state context (no prior market_state_table provided)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}