Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-17T06:10:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term natural gas futures face upward pressure driven by LNG supply/transport risk and geopolitics affecting key export corridors. 62 up accelerating 6h false 58
natural_gas B-NG-002 Over the next 24 hours, bullish pressure persists but is vulnerable to reversals if US supply/storage framing reasserts dominance. 58 up stable 24h false 58
natural_gas B-NG-003 Pullback/reversal risk rises if fresh, high-authority US supply or storage signals confirm loosening fundamentals. 42 down stable 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_NG_20260317T061000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T06:10:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term natural gas futures face upward pressure driven by LNG supply/transport risk and geopolitics affecting key export corridors.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "LNG supply disruption / constraint signals (QatarEnergy-linked)",
 "LNG maritime transportation/route-risk chatter (incl. Hormuz-linked risk references)",
 "Persistent Qatar/Iran geopolitical risk premium spilling into LNG/natgas pricing"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "US supply/price narrative implying potential oversupply/price softness"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, bullish pressure persists but is vulnerable to reversals if US supply/storage framing reasserts dominance.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Carry-through from LNG disruption/transport risk",
 "Ongoing geopolitics-related risk premium in LNG-linked flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "US supply/price and storage inventory narratives (bearish framing risk)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-003",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Pullback/reversal risk rises if fresh, high-authority US supply or storage signals confirm loosening fundamentals.",
 "probability_pct": 42,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "US supply/price narrative",
 "Storage inventory attention (EIA-linked mentions, some single-source)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "LNG disruption and shipping-route risk signals"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002",
 "B-NG-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Coexisting bullish LNG/geopolitics impulse and bearish-leaning US supply/storage framing keeps reversal risk elevated."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Several incremental catalysts arrive via single-source VIP/risk items (echo-risk), increasing fragility despite broader multi-source trends."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Additional fresh confirmations of LNG supply disruption / shipping constraints within the next 6\u201324h without equally-fresh US supply/storage easing signals."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Any new rapid-cycle geopolitical escalation signals tied to LNG routes/chokepoints (e.g., Hormuz-linked shipping risk) in the last 0\u20136h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh, higher-authority US supply/storage updates indicating loosening fundamentals that materially increase bearish pressure versus the prior 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score falls back into neutral band (|score| < 20) for multiple consecutive hours with rising contradiction ratio."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
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 ]
 },
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 6,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided in input; used conservative proxy scoring from recency, evidence density, and narrative tags.",
 "State-change computed with unknown prior (assumed neutral baseline) -> new_bullish.",
 "Some high-recency items are single-source VIP/risk seeds (echo-risk); incorporated mainly as fragility/risk rather than primary direction drivers."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}