Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-17T06:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Near-term natural gas futures face upward pressure driven by LNG supply/transport risk and geopolitics affecting key export corridors. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
58 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Over the next 24 hours, bullish pressure persists but is vulnerable to reversals if US supply/storage framing reasserts dominance. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-003 |
Pullback/reversal risk rises if fresh, high-authority US supply or storage signals confirm loosening fundamentals. |
42 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_NG_20260317T061000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T06:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term natural gas futures face upward pressure driven by LNG supply/transport risk and geopolitics affecting key export corridors.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"LNG supply disruption / constraint signals (QatarEnergy-linked)",
"LNG maritime transportation/route-risk chatter (incl. Hormuz-linked risk references)",
"Persistent Qatar/Iran geopolitical risk premium spilling into LNG/natgas pricing"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"US supply/price narrative implying potential oversupply/price softness"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, bullish pressure persists but is vulnerable to reversals if US supply/storage framing reasserts dominance.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Carry-through from LNG disruption/transport risk",
"Ongoing geopolitics-related risk premium in LNG-linked flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"US supply/price and storage inventory narratives (bearish framing risk)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Pullback/reversal risk rises if fresh, high-authority US supply or storage signals confirm loosening fundamentals.",
"probability_pct": 42,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"US supply/price narrative",
"Storage inventory attention (EIA-linked mentions, some single-source)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"LNG disruption and shipping-route risk signals"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002",
"B-NG-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Coexisting bullish LNG/geopolitics impulse and bearish-leaning US supply/storage framing keeps reversal risk elevated."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Several incremental catalysts arrive via single-source VIP/risk items (echo-risk), increasing fragility despite broader multi-source trends."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Additional fresh confirmations of LNG supply disruption / shipping constraints within the next 6\u201324h without equally-fresh US supply/storage easing signals."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Any new rapid-cycle geopolitical escalation signals tied to LNG routes/chokepoints (e.g., Hormuz-linked shipping risk) in the last 0\u20136h window."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh, higher-authority US supply/storage updates indicating loosening fundamentals that materially increase bearish pressure versus the prior 6h."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score falls back into neutral band (|score| < 20) for multiple consecutive hours with rising contradiction ratio."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
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"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": true,
"resolution": "30m",
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"buckets": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 6,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided in input; used conservative proxy scoring from recency, evidence density, and narrative tags.",
"State-change computed with unknown prior (assumed neutral baseline) -> new_bullish.",
"Some high-recency items are single-source VIP/risk seeds (echo-risk); incorporated mainly as fragility/risk rather than primary direction drivers."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}