Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-LI-LOW-AUTHORITY-MIX , Evidence mix skews to lower-authority sources (severity: medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-17 12:45 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-001 Near-term lithium sentiment bias is upward as EV/battery-capacity demand narratives dominate the last 6–12h. 62 up accelerating 6h false 66
lithium B-LI-002 Next 24h balance mildly bullish; conviction capped by narrative concentration & policy/regulatory overhang. 58 up stable 24h false 66

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-20260317T124500Z-lithium",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T12:45:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term lithium sentiment bias is upward as fresh EV/battery-capacity demand narratives dominate the last 6\u201312 hours of signal flow.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "ev_demand",
 "battery_supply_chain",
 "refining_capacity"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "RF-LI-STALE-POLICY-OVERHANG",
 "RF-LI-LOW-AUTHORITY-MIX"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, the balance of evidence remains mildly bullish, but conviction is capped by narrative concentration and policy/regulatory overhang risk.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "china_policy",
 "inventory",
 "battery_supply_chain"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "RF-LI-STALE-POLICY-OVERHANG",
 "RF-LI-NARRATIVE-WHIPSAW-RISK"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-001",
 "B-LI-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-LOW-AUTHORITY-MIX",
 "market": "lithium",
 "label": "Evidence mix skews to lower-authority sources across multiple supporting narratives; increases fragility versus a single high-trust confirmation set.",
 "severity": "medium"
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-STALE-POLICY-OVERHANG",
 "market": "lithium",
 "label": "Policy/regulatory risk items are not fresh inside the last 24h window but remain an overhang capable of re-pricing risk quickly on new headlines.",
 "severity": "medium"
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-NARRATIVE-WHIPSAW-RISK",
 "market": "lithium",
 "label": "Directional score is vulnerable to whipsaw because a large share of support is demand-narrative driven (EV adoption/capacity), with limited direct spot-inventory confirmation inside the provided feed.",
 "severity": "medium"
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-DATA-SPARSITY-INTRADAY",
 "market": "lithium",
 "label": "Intraday bucket attribution uses trend-level latest timestamps (not per-article ticks); bucket precision is coarse, lowering microstructure confidence.",
 "severity": "low"
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch while fresh supportive signals continue arriving inside <=6h windows without an opposing high-authority catalyst."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Elevate volatility watch if a policy/regulatory headline arrives with age <=2h that contradicts demand narratives (would raise contradiction ratio and fragility rapidly)."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If the next cycle introduces fresh opposing signals (<=2h) from Tier-A sources, treat current bullish bias as fragile and transition to neutral/mixed pending corroboration."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Stay flat if directional score falls back into the neutral band (|score| < 20) for >3 consecutive hourly buckets."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T12:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T13:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T13:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T14:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T14:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T15:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T15:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T16:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T16:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T17:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T17:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T18:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 9,
 "acceleration_score": 9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T19:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T20:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 13,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 14,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 22,
 "acceleration_score": 23,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 22,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided; used timestamp recency proxies + sentiment tags + risk_anomaly overhang for synthesis.",
 "State_change set to 'unchanged' due to unknown prior-state context (no prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory supplied).",
 "Risk anomalies present but outside the last-24h bucket window; treated as stale overhang (fragility/risk), not as fresh directional reversal."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}