Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-LI-LOW-AUTHORITY-MIX , Evidence mix skews to lower-authority sources (severity: medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-17 12:45 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-LI-001 | Near-term lithium sentiment bias is upward as EV/battery-capacity demand narratives dominate the last 6–12h. | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 66 |
| lithium | B-LI-002 | Next 24h balance mildly bullish; conviction capped by narrative concentration & policy/regulatory overhang. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 66 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-20260317T124500Z-lithium",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T12:45:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term lithium sentiment bias is upward as fresh EV/battery-capacity demand narratives dominate the last 6\u201312 hours of signal flow.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"ev_demand",
"battery_supply_chain",
"refining_capacity"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"RF-LI-STALE-POLICY-OVERHANG",
"RF-LI-LOW-AUTHORITY-MIX"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, the balance of evidence remains mildly bullish, but conviction is capped by narrative concentration and policy/regulatory overhang risk.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"china_policy",
"inventory",
"battery_supply_chain"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"RF-LI-STALE-POLICY-OVERHANG",
"RF-LI-NARRATIVE-WHIPSAW-RISK"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-001",
"B-LI-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-LOW-AUTHORITY-MIX",
"market": "lithium",
"label": "Evidence mix skews to lower-authority sources across multiple supporting narratives; increases fragility versus a single high-trust confirmation set.",
"severity": "medium"
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-STALE-POLICY-OVERHANG",
"market": "lithium",
"label": "Policy/regulatory risk items are not fresh inside the last 24h window but remain an overhang capable of re-pricing risk quickly on new headlines.",
"severity": "medium"
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-NARRATIVE-WHIPSAW-RISK",
"market": "lithium",
"label": "Directional score is vulnerable to whipsaw because a large share of support is demand-narrative driven (EV adoption/capacity), with limited direct spot-inventory confirmation inside the provided feed.",
"severity": "medium"
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-DATA-SPARSITY-INTRADAY",
"market": "lithium",
"label": "Intraday bucket attribution uses trend-level latest timestamps (not per-article ticks); bucket precision is coarse, lowering microstructure confidence.",
"severity": "low"
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch while fresh supportive signals continue arriving inside <=6h windows without an opposing high-authority catalyst."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Elevate volatility watch if a policy/regulatory headline arrives with age <=2h that contradicts demand narratives (would raise contradiction ratio and fragility rapidly)."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If the next cycle introduces fresh opposing signals (<=2h) from Tier-A sources, treat current bullish bias as fragile and transition to neutral/mixed pending corroboration."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Stay flat if directional score falls back into the neutral band (|score| < 20) for >3 consecutive hourly buckets."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T12:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T13:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T13:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T14:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T14:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T15:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T15:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T16:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T16:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T17:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T17:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T18:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 9,
"acceleration_score": 9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T19:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T20:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 13,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 14,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 22,
"acceleration_score": 23,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 22,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided; used timestamp recency proxies + sentiment tags + risk_anomaly overhang for synthesis.",
"State_change set to 'unchanged' due to unknown prior-state context (no prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory supplied).",
"Risk anomalies present but outside the last-24h bucket window; treated as stale overhang (fragility/risk), not as fresh directional reversal."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}