Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: policy_headline_whipsaw
  • generated_at: 2026-03-17T20:15:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-1 Copper has an upward price bias as supply-side tightness/disruption narratives dominate near-term catalysts. 62 up accelerating 24h false 52
copper B-copper-2 Demand-side sentiment remains supportive via grid modernisation / renewables / electrification narratives, reinforcing dips-as-supported behaviour. 58 up stable 24h false 52
copper B-copper-3 Short-horizon copper risk is skewed to volatility rather than a clean trend continuation because trade-policy / tariff rhetoric can create fast reversals via USD-risk and growth sentiment. 55 mixed accelerating 6h false 52

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260317T201500Z-copper",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T20:15:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-1",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper has an upward price bias as supply-side tightness/disruption narratives dominate near-term catalysts.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply",
 "inventory",
 "supply_disruptions (producers)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "No strong fresh bearish copper-specific signals admitted in this cycle"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-2",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Demand-side sentiment remains supportive via grid modernisation / renewables / electrification narratives, reinforcing dips-as-supported behaviour.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "china_policy (policy-led capex expectations)",
 "energy_transition (demand proxy)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Macro/FX-driven demand-risk headlines could temporarily overwhelm thematic support"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-3",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Short-horizon copper risk is skewed to volatility rather than a clean trend continuation because trade-policy / tariff rhetoric can create fast reversals via USD-risk and growth sentiment.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "usd_strength",
 "trade_policy_headlines",
 "risk_sentiment"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If policy headline flow stays one-sided/supportive, realised volatility risk reduces"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-1",
 "B-copper-2",
 "B-copper-3"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Trade-policy related narratives are prominent enough to raise reversal/volatility risk even without a confirmed bearish copper impulse."
 },
 {
 "flag": "single_source_echo_risk_vip_lane",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Multiple VIP-lane items are single-source; treated as low-weight context unless corroborated."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Some long-running themes originate earlier in the window; conviction is anchored primarily to the freshest confirmations rather than persistence alone."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh supply-tightness confirmations persist while contradiction remains low, maintain long-bias watch."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If trade-policy / USD-strength headlines cluster within a few hours, treat as volatility-watch regardless of direction."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) high-authority opposing demand shock appears, upgrade to reversal-watch."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
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 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 42,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 17,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Scope fixed to single-market=copper (explicit).",
 "No prior market state provided; state_change computed versus neutral baseline (unknown_prior).",
 "No fresh opposing (bearish) copper-specific impulse <=2h detected in admitted signals; kill-switch not triggered."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}