Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-03-17T06:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-001 |
Near-term copper futures bias modestly upward as energy-transition/grid-capex and China policy-linked industrial themes remain net supportive versus the last 24h evidence mix. |
60 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
| copper |
B-copper-002 |
Supply-side disruption/tightness narratives (mine operations / labour / deficit framing) add upward skew and reduce downside follow-through risk over the next 6–24h. |
57 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
58 |
| copper |
B-copper-003 |
Trade-policy / macro headlines create episodic downside shocks and raise reversal risk even if the baseline demand/supply narrative remains constructive. |
52 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_copper_20260317_060000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term copper futures bias modestly upward as energy-transition/grid-capex and China policy-linked industrial themes remain net supportive versus the last 24h evidence mix.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-copper-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-002",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Supply-side disruption/tightness narratives (mine operations / labour / deficit framing) add upward skew and reduce downside follow-through risk over the next 6\u201324h.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply",
"inventory"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-copper-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-003",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Trade-policy / macro headlines create episodic downside shocks and raise reversal risk even if the baseline demand/supply narrative remains constructive.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"usd_strength",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-copper-001",
"B-copper-002"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-001",
"B-copper-002",
"B-copper-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Portions of the supportive narrative are long-horizon and persistence-heavy; capped by stale suppression despite fresh mentions."
},
{
"flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Trade-policy/macro items can produce fast sentiment dips; reversal risk elevated versus a purely supply/demand-only tape."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_near_term",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Last-24h directional inference is supported by clustered timestamps rather than evenly distributed evidence; intraday conviction capped."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If next 6h buckets keep directional_score_signed >= +20 with contradiction_ratio <= 0.20, maintain watch_long_bias."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction_ratio rises above 0.30 inside 1\u20132h with a negative directional bucket, prioritise reversal_watch."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If directional swings exceed ~25 points across adjacent hourly buckets, keep volatility_watch active."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": -16,
"acceleration_score": -15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": -3,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 19,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 14,
"acceleration_score": 11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -6,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 24,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 3,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior state not provided (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table). state_change computed assuming prior neutral_mixed baseline.",
"Contradictions feed empty; contradiction_ratio is conservatively inferred from mixed driver arenas and observed intraday sentiment dip rather than explicit contradiction objects."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}