Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-03-17T06:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-001 Near-term copper futures bias modestly upward as energy-transition/grid-capex and China policy-linked industrial themes remain net supportive versus the last 24h evidence mix. 60 up stable 24h false 58
copper B-copper-002 Supply-side disruption/tightness narratives (mine operations / labour / deficit framing) add upward skew and reduce downside follow-through risk over the next 6–24h. 57 up fading 24h false 58
copper B-copper-003 Trade-policy / macro headlines create episodic downside shocks and raise reversal risk even if the baseline demand/supply narrative remains constructive. 52 mixed accelerating 6h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_copper_20260317_060000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term copper futures bias modestly upward as energy-transition/grid-capex and China policy-linked industrial themes remain net supportive versus the last 24h evidence mix.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-copper-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Supply-side disruption/tightness narratives (mine operations / labour / deficit framing) add upward skew and reduce downside follow-through risk over the next 6\u201324h.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply",
 "inventory"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-copper-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-003",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Trade-policy / macro headlines create episodic downside shocks and raise reversal risk even if the baseline demand/supply narrative remains constructive.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "usd_strength",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-copper-001",
 "B-copper-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-001",
 "B-copper-002",
 "B-copper-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Portions of the supportive narrative are long-horizon and persistence-heavy; capped by stale suppression despite fresh mentions."
 },
 {
 "flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Trade-policy/macro items can produce fast sentiment dips; reversal risk elevated versus a purely supply/demand-only tape."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_near_term",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Last-24h directional inference is supported by clustered timestamps rather than evenly distributed evidence; intraday conviction capped."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If next 6h buckets keep directional_score_signed >= +20 with contradiction_ratio <= 0.20, maintain watch_long_bias."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction_ratio rises above 0.30 inside 1\u20132h with a negative directional bucket, prioritise reversal_watch."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional swings exceed ~25 points across adjacent hourly buckets, keep volatility_watch active."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": -16,
 "acceleration_score": -15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": -3,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 19,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 14,
 "acceleration_score": 11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -6,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 24,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 3,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior state not provided (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table). state_change computed assuming prior neutral_mixed baseline.",
 "Contradictions feed empty; contradiction_ratio is conservatively inferred from mixed driver arenas and observed intraday sentiment dip rather than explicit contradiction objects."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}