Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: supply_chain_risk_premium_fragility
- generated_at: 2026-03-17T06:45:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-1 |
Coffee futures price bias is upward over the next 6 hours, driven by near-term logistics/shipping disruption risk and tightening cost/supply narratives. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
72 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-2 |
Coffee futures bias remains modestly upward over the next 24 hours, but is vulnerable to rapid reversals if supply-chain headlines cool or if countervailing origin-supply signals strengthen. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
72 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260317T064500Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T06:45:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish (Fragile)",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-1",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Coffee futures price bias is upward over the next 6 hours, driven by near-term logistics/shipping disruption risk and tightening cost/supply narratives.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Shipping/logistics disruption cluster (Iran/Saudi/Dubai/CMA CGM/Qatar-related trade-flow stress) reinforcing near-term supply tightness and risk premium",
"Production-cost pressure narrative (crop production / input costs) supporting higher marginal cost pricing",
"Coffee consumption / QSR preference themes supporting demand resilience"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Policy/sustainability narratives that could improve medium-term origin supply (Brazil-related agriculture/economic sustainability theme) reducing risk premium",
"Any fast de-escalation in shipping disruption narratives (would reduce supply-risk premium quickly)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-2",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Coffee futures bias remains modestly upward over the next 24 hours, but is vulnerable to rapid reversals if supply-chain headlines cool or if countervailing origin-supply signals strengthen.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Sustained, multi-source logistics risk overhang (persistent but recently refreshed)",
"Late-surge attention to production costs (supports upward price bias)",
"Coffee demand/consumption coverage remains net supportive"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Improving crop/outlook signals or policy actions that ease origin supply constraints",
"Stronger-than-expected USD vs BRL dynamics (could pressure coffee futures depending on hedging/export incentives)"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-1",
"B-coffee-2"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"flag": "supply_chain_risk_premium_fragility",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Directional upside is heavily supported by shipping/logistics disruption narratives that can de-risk quickly if headlines de-escalate."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"flag": "cross-domain-driver-mix",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Demand-supportive signals (consumption/QSR preferences) overlap with supply/cost pressures; mixed driver set raises reversal sensitivity."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"flag": "evidence_authority_mix_skew",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Several admitted trends show large low-authority share/echo-risk indicators; conviction capped despite fresh timestamps."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If logistics/shipping disruption signals remain active into the next 6h window without credible de-escalation, maintaining upside risk premium."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If shipping/trade-flow headlines update rapidly (new restrictions, rerouting, freight spikes) or rapidly unwind (ceasefire/resolution headlines)."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If strong, high-authority origin-supply easing signals arrive (crop outlook improvement / policy easing) within a 2\u20136h window."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If signals turn mixed with no fresh directional reinforcement (fresh evidence count drops materially) while contradiction/mixed drivers rise."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": [
"coffee"
]
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 41,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Scope locked to single market: coffee (explicit).",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided in input; reversal risk set to medium due to mixed driver set and fragility of supply-chain-premium narratives.",
"Timeseries is a conservative shape reconstruction using available trend temporal profiles and freshness proxies; per-record physics were not present in the gated payload."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}