Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-crude_oil-geo_headline_volatility (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-17 18:05 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-crude_oil-001 Near-term oil risk premium remains supported by Iran-linked geopolitical and maritime-security escalation headlines, increasing perceived supply disruption risk. 62 up accelerating 24h false 58
crude_oil B-crude_oil-002 Short-horizon pullbacks are plausible if refinery-outage/demand-destruction narratives dominate headline flow over the next session. 38 down stable 6h false 58
crude_oil B-crude_oil-003 Volatility stays elevated as the market prices a wide headline-outcome distribution (escalation vs de-escalation), even if the net direction remains mildly positive. 70 mixed accelerating 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "CIS6B-crude_oil-20260317T180500Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T18:05:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Brent crude oil futures", "market_code": "crude_oil" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "crude_oil", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-001", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Near-term oil risk premium remains supported by Iran-linked geopolitical and maritime-security escalation headlines, increasing perceived supply disruption risk.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Iran/Tehran geopolitical conflict cluster (multiple high-authority sources, high recency heat)", "Maritime chokepoints and shipping security incidents (Fujairah/UKMTO references)", "Broader Russia/geopolitical risk governance narrative adding background risk premium" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Demand-side softening risk from refinery outage narratives (reduces crude runs)", "Thin/low-confidence operational anomaly seeds that could flip short-term tone if corroborated" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-002", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Short-horizon pullbacks are plausible if refinery-outage/demand-destruction narratives dominate headline flow over the next session.", "probability_pct": 38, "direction": "down", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Refinery outage / downstream disruption narratives (demand-side counterpressure)", "Operational surge-risk anomalies (low confidence, but very recent timestamps)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Fresh geopolitics/shipping risk cluster reinforcing supply-risk bid" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-003", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Volatility stays elevated as the market prices a wide headline-outcome distribution (escalation vs de-escalation), even if the net direction remains mildly positive.", "probability_pct": 70, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Geopolitical headline density and rapid velocity hints across multiple related trends", "Mixed supply-risk (bullish) vs demand/outage (bearish) narrative mix" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-crude_oil-001", "B-crude_oil-003" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag_id": "RF-crude_oil-geo_headline_volatility", "market": "crude_oil", "severity": "high", "description": "Geopolitical and maritime-security headline flow is dense and fast-moving; price can gap on incremental confirmations/denials." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-crude_oil-demand_counterpressure", "market": "crude_oil", "severity": "medium", "description": "Refinery-outage / downstream disruption narratives introduce demand-side counterpressure that can cap upside or trigger intraday reversals." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-crude_oil_data_sparsity_vip_anomalies", "market": "crude_oil", "severity": "medium", "description": "Several very-recent VIP/risk-anomaly signals are single-source or seed-level (low corroboration), increasing whipsaw risk if later invalidated." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-crude_oil_contradiction_moderate", "market": "crude_oil", "severity": "medium", "description": "Net direction is positive, but a persistent minority of counter-signals remains present (demand/outages), keeping reversal risk non-trivial." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "action_label": "watch_long_bias", "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Additional high-authority confirmation of shipping disruption / security escalation within key maritime routes, or confirmed supply disruption escalation." }, { "action_label": "volatility_watch", "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Any new headline within <=2 hours that changes operational status of chokepoints/ports (e.g., Fujairah-linked incidents) or signals direct confrontation." }, { "action_label": "reversal_watch", "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Credible confirmation that refinery outages materially reduce crude runs / demand, or an explicit de-escalation headline reduces risk premium." }, { "action_label": "hard_de_risk_watch", "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "A late-breaking, high-authority opposing signal (<=2h) emerges that directly negates the supply-risk thesis (e.g., verified reopening/normalisation of disrupted routes plus easing rhetoric)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.44, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.45, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 37, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 46, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.46, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 53, "bearish_pressure_score": 47, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.47, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 7, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 46, "net_sentiment_score": 7, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.46, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 37, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.45, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 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"2026-03-17T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.41, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.39, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.36, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 20, "acceleration_score": 13, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 10, "stale_evidence_count": 0, 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"2026-03-17T12:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T12:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 41, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 41, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T13:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T13:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T14:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T14:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 47, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 47, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T15:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T15:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T16:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 76, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T16:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 54, "bullish_pressure_score": 77, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 54, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T17:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T17:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 56, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 56, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 65, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 4, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } } }