• subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: crude_oil
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: recency_impulse_fading
  • generated_at: 2026-03-17 12:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-crude_oil-geo_shipping-riskpremium-6h Crude oil (Brent-linked) upside bias persists over the next 6h as geopolitical and maritime-security narratives keep... 62 up fading 6h false 54
crude_oil B-crude_oil-upside-fragile-24h Crude oil likely remains net-supported over the next 24h, but the thesis is fragile because the most recent impulse is fading... 58 up fading 24h false 54
crude_oil B-crude_oil-volatility-elevated-24h Crude oil volatility risk is elevated (wider intraday range risk) as geopolitics and shipping-security signals coexist with... 70 mixed stable 24h false 54
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260317T120000Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-geo_shipping-riskpremium-6h",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Crude oil (Brent-linked) upside bias persists over the next 6h as geopolitical and maritime-security narratives keep a risk premium embedded (Hormuz / chokepoints / security incidents).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Iran-related geopolitical conflict theme (T-002)",
 "Maritime security / disruption focus (T-009, T-015, VIP-001)",
 "Security-incident amplification touching Iraq oil-field context (RA-005)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Refinery outage / outages narrative can reduce crude throughput demand (T-023, RA-006)",
 "USD fluctuations / macro overlay can pressure commodity pricing (T-020)",
 "Inventory narrative uncertainty (T-003)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-upside-fragile-24h",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Crude oil likely remains net-supported over the next 24h, but the thesis is fragile because the most recent impulse is fading and counter-signals (refinery outages, macro) are present.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Sustained geopolitics cluster with high authority coverage (T-002, T-060, T-030)",
 "Shipping chokepoint monitoring and rerouting risk (T-011, T-015)",
 "OPEC / regional energy-security narratives (T-014)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Spike-and-fade profiles across multiple trends (temporal_profile shapes)",
 "Refinery-outage thread (T-023) creating demand-side ambiguity",
 "Lack of truly new high-authority confirmations in the last ~6 hours versus earlier surge"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-volatility-elevated-24h",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Crude oil volatility risk is elevated (wider intraday range risk) as geopolitics and shipping-security signals coexist with macro/inventory cross-currents.",
 "probability_pct": 70,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Geopolitical conflict stack (T-002, T-030, T-060, T-034)",
 "Maritime disruption/security stack (T-009, T-011, T-015, VIP-001)",
 "Macro overlay via USD policy/fluctuation narrative (T-020)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-crude_oil-geo_shipping-riskpremium-6h",
 "B-crude_oil-upside-fragile-24h",
 "B-crude_oil-volatility-elevated-24h"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "recency_impulse_fading",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "details": "Directional score peaked around 2026-03-17T04:00-05:00Z and has eased into the snapshot, raising whipsaw/reversal sensitivity."
 },
 {
 "flag": "cross_current_macro_inventory",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "details": "USD / policy narrative (T-020) and inventory thread (T-003) act as potential dampeners vs geopolitics-driven risk premium."
 },
 {
 "flag": "refinery_outage_demand_ambiguity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "details": "Refinery-outage narratives (T-023 plus related risk anomaly RA-006) can reduce crude runs, partially offsetting supply-risk upside."
 },
 {
 "flag": "singleton_vip_noise",
 "severity": "low",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "details": "Multiple VIP/risk items are single-source; treated as marginal modifiers rather than primary drivers."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If maritime-security / chokepoint escalation signals re-accelerate (new high-authority confirmations within <=6h buckets) while contradiction remains contained."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If geopolitics + shipping narratives persist but refinery/macro counter-signals rise (contradiction_ratio >= 0.30 sustained), expect wider range risk."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence shifts toward demand-destruction / inventory build / stronger-USD framing and directional_score_signed drops below +20."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If signals continue to fade without new confirmations and directional_score_signed moves into [-20, +20] neutral band."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 22,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 }
}