Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 4
- top_risk_flag: RF-crude-001
- generated_at: 2026-03-17T10:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B-crude-001 |
Geopolitical escalation risk centered on Iran and Gulf shipping corridors is sustaining an elevated near-term risk premium for Brent. |
64 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
68 |
| crude_oil |
B-crude-002 |
Shipping-security and chokepoint narratives (Hormuz / Fujairah / Oman) are an accelerating catalyst, but the impulse is past peak intensity (cooling from the last 1–3h). |
61 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
68 |
| crude_oil |
B-crude-003 |
Inventory/internals narratives and refinery-outage narratives are directionally mixed for outright crude: they support volatility more than a clean trend. |
58 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
68 |
| crude_oil |
B-crude-004 |
Macro FX pressure (USD strength) is a plausible near-term cap on upside and raises pullback/reversal risk if geopolitical headlines fade. |
55 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
68 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260317-100500Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T10:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Geopolitical escalation risk centered on Iran and surrounding Gulf shipping corridors is sustaining an elevated near-term risk premium for Brent.",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Iran: geopolitical conflict",
"U.S.: military escalation",
"Strait of Hormuz: geopolitical conflicts",
"Fujairah / Oman maritime-security incidents"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"USD-strength / macro headwinds (Fed-linked FX pressure)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Shipping-security and chokepoint narratives (Hormuz / Fujairah / Oman) are acting as an accelerating catalyst, but the impulse is already past peak intensity (cooling from the last 1\u20133 hours of peak activity).",
"probability_pct": 61,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Brent/WTI maritime chokepoints trend cluster",
"Fujairah: security incidents",
"Oman: maritime security"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"No confirmed multi-source late-breaking escalation beyond the earlier spike",
"Event-driven premium can mean-revert quickly"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Inventory/internals narratives (IEA physical crude and product inventories) and refinery-outage narratives are directionally mixed for outright crude: they can support volatility more than a clean trend.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"International Energy Agency: physical crude and product inventories",
"Refinery outage / OPEC refinery outages"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Geopolitical risk premium dominating the near-term tape"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-004",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro FX pressure (USD strength/currency fluctuations framing) is a plausible near-term cap on upside and increases pullback/reversal risk if geopolitical headlines fade.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"US Federal Reserve: currency fluctuations (macro headwind proxy)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fresh geopolitical escalation narratives and supply-route risk keeping bids supported"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-crude-001",
"B-crude-002",
"B-crude-003",
"B-crude-004"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-crude-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Event-driven geopolitics/shipping-risk premium appears to have peaked earlier (07:00\u201308:00Z) and is fading; pullback risk rises if no new escalation confirms."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-crude-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"type": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Several supporting themes are ~24\u201326h old; fresh confirmation exists, but persistence reliance is non-trivial."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-crude-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"type": "macro_headwind_fx",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Fed/currency-fluctuation framing can counteract risk-premium-driven upside and increase reversal probability."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-crude-004",
"market": "crude_oil",
"type": "authority_mix_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Multiple trends show elevated low-authority share even when anchored by Tier-A sources; treat marginal increments with caution."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-crude-005",
"market": "crude_oil",
"type": "shadow_stream_seed_noise",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Seed-level operational-surge risks with unmaterialised evidence bundles (e.g., 10:00:50Z entries) are not high-trust confirmers."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh Tier-A confirmation of escalation / shipping disruption prints within the next 2\u20136 hours (or if multiple independent sources confirm), bullish bias strengthens."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If headline cadence remains high but directional follow-through stalls (mixed inventory/FX vs geopolitics), expect choppy price action / wide intraday swings."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If geopolitics/shipping-risk headlines fade while macro/FX narratives persist, expect momentum to flip from bullish to neutral-mixed."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If new evidence is sparse over the next 6\u201312 hours and contradiction/mixed signals persist, directional edge degrades."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 4,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 7,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 7,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 7,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 7,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 9,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 9,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-17T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-17T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -13,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 18,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
"No contradictions object provided; contradiction_ratio reflects mixed driver arenas rather than explicit contradiction records.",
"Prior state not supplied; state_change computed versus neutral baseline (unknown_prior treated as neutral).",
"Late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered: no high-trust fresh (<=2h) opposing directional signal detected in provided inputs."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}