2) Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: authority_dispersion_noise_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-16T14:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
3) Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-UR-001 | Pro-nuclear policy/demand signalling remains dominant versus the last 24h evidence mix, supporting a continued upward bias in uranium futures. | 63 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 57 |
| uranium | B-UR-002 | Near-term (6h) uranium futures sentiment is bullish but not high-conviction; direction is more 'grind higher' than 'breakout' given limited explicit contradictory signals but notable noise/echo-risk pockets. | 58 | up | stable | 6h | false | 57 |
| uranium | B-UR-003 | Reversal/whipsaw risk is material (but not dominant): a sudden high-authority counter-signal could quickly neutralise the bullish bias. | 41 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 57 |
4) Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260316-uranium-001", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Uranium futures", "market_code": "uranium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 69, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "uranium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "uranium" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-UR-001", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Pro-nuclear policy/demand signalling remains dominant versus the last 24h evidence mix, supporting a continued upward bias in uranium futures.", "probability_pct": 63, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Policy support / nuclear build-out narratives (EU + US regulatory lanes)", "Ongoing reactor demand and SMR/advanced reactor signalling", "Geopolitical supply-chain risk focus (notably Kazakhstan/Kazatomprom lane)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Thin, single-source VIP items (low authority diversity) that can amplify noise", "Mixed interpretation risk: miner/project news can imply future supply increases" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-UR-002", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Near-term (6h) uranium futures sentiment is bullish but not high-conviction; direction is more 'grind higher' than 'breakout' given limited explicit contradictory signals but notable noise/echo-risk pockets.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Fresh policy/regulatory attention timestamps inside the last ~72h", "Late-cycle reinforcement from IAEA/nuclear development coverage" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Low-authority share across several clusters increases whipsaw risk", "No explicit price/flow confirmation inside this workflow" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-UR-003", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Reversal/whipsaw risk is material (but not dominant): a sudden high-authority counter-signal (e.g., supply easing / policy rollback / risk-off macro shock) could quickly neutralise the bullish bias.", "probability_pct": 41, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Evidence-set authority dispersion and VIP single-source outliers", "Narrative compression risk (policy + geopolitics) driving fast sentiment flips" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Current trend set shows low explicit contradiction ids and high internal consistency scores" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "uranium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-UR-001", "B-UR-002", "B-UR-003" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "authority_dispersion_noise_risk", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Several clusters show high low-authority share and multiple single-source VIP outliers; can inflate apparent consensus without true corroboration." }, { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "low", "detail": "Some supportive narratives are persistent/dormant (weeks-old roots), but current direction is not primarily dependent on >72h stale-only evidence." }, { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Policy + geopolitical supply-chain narratives can pivot quickly; reversal risk elevated despite low explicit contradiction links in the provided set." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "action_label": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "If additional high-authority confirmation arrives within the next 6\u201324h reinforcing supply tightness or policy-driven demand expansion while no fresh opposing cluster emerges." }, { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "action_label": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "If a single new, high-trust opposing headline lands (<=2h old) that increases contradiction/uncertainty versus the prior cycle." }, { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "low", "action_label": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If a fresh counter-signal becomes dominant (multiple independent sources) suggesting supply easing or policy reversal, pushing the signed directional score back below +20." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "uranium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, 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"conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 44, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z", 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"stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 47, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 47, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 49, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 49, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 49, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 1, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=uranium.", "No prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory provided; state_change set relative to an implicit neutral baseline." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }