• subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 4
  • top_risk_flag: RF-SI-RECENCY_SUPPORT
  • generated_at: 2026-03-16T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SI-001 Near-term precious-metals safe-haven / allocation flow narrative remains supportive for silver futures. 62 up stable 24h false 57
silver B-SI-002 Policy/interest-rate expectations are currently interpreted as net-supportive for silver (real-rate sensitivity channel). 58 up accelerating 6h false 57
silver B-SI-003 Industrial-demand overlay (notably solar manufacturing growth themes) adds marginal bullish bias to silver demand expectations. 55 up fading 24h false 57
silver B-SI-004 Reversal risk: a fast shift toward USD strength / higher real-rate pricing or a legal/policy shock could pressure silver. 41 down stable 6h false 57
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-6B-silver-20260316T120000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Near-term precious-metals safe-haven / allocation flow narrative remains supportive for silver futures.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "precious_metals_flows",
 "macro_risk_appetite"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-004"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Policy/interest-rate expectations are currently interpreted as net-supportive for silver (real-rate sensitivity channel).",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-004"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Industrial-demand overlay (notably solar manufacturing growth themes) adds marginal bullish bias to silver demand expectations.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-004",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Reversal risk: a fast shift toward USD strength / higher real-rate pricing or a legal/policy shock could pressure silver.",
 "probability_pct": 41,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates",
 "policy_uncertainty",
 "legal_risk_seed"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-001",
 "B-SI-002",
 "B-SI-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SI-001",
 "B-SI-002",
 "B-SI-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-SI-RECENCY_SUPPORT",
 "market": "silver",
 "type": "recency_flip",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Multiple silver-linked trend bundles show newest evidence timestamps within ~6h of snapshot (2026-03-16T12:00:00Z), supporting near-term bullish bias."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-SI-LOW_AUTHORITY_TAIL",
 "market": "silver",
 "type": "data_quality",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "A meaningful share of supporting mentions appear from lower-tier / single-source VIP outliers (echo-risk flagged on several VIP items)."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-SI-POLICY_SENSITIVITY",
 "market": "silver",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Macro/policy narratives (rates, Fed/ECB expectation shaping) can swing quickly; treat bullish thesis as policy-sensitive."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-SI-LEGAL_SEED_ALERT",
 "market": "silver",
 "type": "late_breaking_invalidation",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Shadow-stream legal/compliance anomaly seeds (US Supreme Court) are very recent but low-confidence and not materialised; they raise fragility but do not flip direction."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while directional score stays >= +20 and fresh evidence continues to arrive within 24h without a credible opposing acceleration spike."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if fresh (<=2h) opposing macro signal appears and contradiction ratio rises materially versus current baseline."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Expect higher volatility around policy/legal headline clusters; treat conviction as capped until corroboration increases authority diversity."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 7,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No workflow5A physics payload provided; used temporal_profile + evidence_recency_proxy fields as recency/velocity approximations.",
 "Contradictions list empty; contradiction_ratio inferred conservatively from presence of downside risk belief + low-authority VIP tail.",
 "Unmapped signal count: 0 (all admitted signals mapped to 'silver' either directly via precious-metals context or indirectly via industrial-demand/solar theme)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}