- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: natural_gas
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_headline_dominance (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-16 06:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Near-term upside pressure is supported by LNG-linked supply risk / disruption narrative (risk-premium bid dominates baseline fundamentals in the latest cycle). |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
74 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Volatility is likely elevated; price action may stay two-sided because the dominant drivers are headline-sensitive and can fade quickly. |
62 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
74 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-003 |
Directional conviction is capped because a meaningful portion of supporting context is persistent / slow-burn and not cleanly time-aligned to U.S. natgas-specific fundamentals (stale-context overhang). |
65 |
flat |
fading |
24h |
false |
74 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260316-natural_gas-0001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term upside pressure is supported by LNG-linked supply risk / disruption narrative (risk-premium bid dominates baseline fundamentals in the latest cycle).",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"export_lng",
"production_outages",
"pipeline_flows",
"geopolitical risk premium (energy shipping / Middle East escalation sensitivity)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"rapid de-escalation headlines restoring perceived supply security",
"lack of direct confirming signals from weather_demand / storage in this feed window"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Volatility is likely elevated; price action may stay two-sided because the dominant drivers are headline-sensitive and can fade quickly.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical developments",
"LNG maritime / logistics disruption risk",
"thin explicit coverage of storage/weather fundamentals in admitted signals"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"fresh, high-authority fundamental prints that decisively point one-way (not present in this input batch)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Directional conviction is capped because a meaningful portion of supporting context is persistent / slow-burn and not cleanly time-aligned to U.S. natgas-specific fundamentals (stale-context overhang).",
"probability_pct": 65,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"background persistent geopolitical narratives",
"cross-market contamination risk (oil / broad energy risk sentiment bleeding into natgas)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"multiple fresh, natgas-specific fundamental signals (weather/storage) aligning with the same direction"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002",
"B-NG-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "geopolitical_headline_dominance",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Recent cycle is driven primarily by geopolitics/LNG-disruption narrative rather than storage/weather prints."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several supporting narratives show multi-day spans; fresh updates exist, but persistence-heavy context caps conviction."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_in_key_arenas",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Limited explicit signals tied to weather_demand and storage relative to export_lng / geopolitics in this batch."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Spike-and-fade / late-surge temporal profiles imply fast sentiment reversals are plausible on new headlines."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh LNG disruption confirmations arrive without equally-fresh de-escalation / restoration signals."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If geopolitical/LNG logistics headlines continue to print at high cadence (<=24h) with mixed framing."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a high-authority, very recent (<=2h) de-escalation or restored-supply signal appears and contradiction rises."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If no further fresh directional evidence appears and the last-6h sentiment impulse fades (velocity turns negative)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 44,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Scope locked to single market: natural_gas (explicit in flight plan).",
"No explicit prior market_state_table / trend_state_memory provided; state_change set using neutral-assumption fallback -> new_bullish.",
"Weather_demand and storage arenas are underrepresented in admitted signals; conviction capped and fragility elevated."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}