Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: HG
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: single_source_echo_risk_present
  • generated_at: 2026-03-16T12:05:30Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B1 Near-term copper sentiment is supported by demand-side energy-transition / grid-modernisation narratives and industrial-policy support signals, biasing prices higher over 6h–24h. 63 up accelerating 24h false 58
copper B2 Supply-chain / operations disruption narratives (miners, critical-minerals positioning) contribute to a higher perceived supply-tightness risk premium over the next 24h. 57 up stable 24h false 58
copper B3 Trade-policy headline risk increases two-way volatility and can intermittently cap upside (risk-off impulse), raising reversal risk despite a bullish base case. 44 mixed accelerating 6h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260316T120530Z-copper",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-16T12:05:30Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures (HG)",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term copper sentiment is supported by demand-side energy-transition / grid-modernisation narratives and industrial-policy support signals, biasing prices higher over 6h\u201324h.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "china_policy",
 "inventory"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Supply-chain / operations disruption narratives (miners, critical-minerals positioning) contribute to a higher perceived supply-tightness risk premium over the next 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply",
 "inventory"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Trade-policy headline risk increases two-way volatility and can intermittently cap upside (risk-off impulse), raising reversal risk despite a bullish base case.",
 "probability_pct": 44,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "usd_strength",
 "china_policy",
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1",
 "B2"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "single_source_echo_risk_present",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "One-off / single-domain VIP outliers exist in the feed; treated as low-weight background only."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Several admitted narratives show a high low-authority share; conviction capped vs directional tilt."
 },
 {
 "flag": "policy_headline_volatility",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Trade-policy related narratives are recent and can cause fast sentiment swings; reversal risk elevated."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "A minority of supporting items are older than 72h and were downweighted (stale suppression applied)."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh supportive demand/supply-tightness signals persist without a new high-trust opposing policy shock."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Any additional trade-policy headline burst (esp. new constraints/tariffs) within the next 2\u20136 hours."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "A credible, very recent (<=2h) opposing macro/policy signal appears and is corroborated by a second source."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score falls back below bullish threshold (+20) with rising contradiction / thinning fresh evidence."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T12:05:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T13:05:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:05:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:05:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:05:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T15:05:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T15:05:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T16:05:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:05:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T17:05:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:05:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:05:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T18:05:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T19:05:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T19:05:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T20:05:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T20:05:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T21:05:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T21:05:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T22:05:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T22:05:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T23:05:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T23:05:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T00:05:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T00:05:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T01:05:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T01:05:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T02:05:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T02:05:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:05:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:05:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:05:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:05:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T05:05:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T05:05:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T06:05:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T06:05:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T07:05:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T07:05:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T08:05:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T08:05:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T09:05:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T09:05:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T10:05:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T10:05:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T11:05:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T11:05:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T12:05:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 36,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 16,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 5,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "State-change computed with no prior trend_state_memory provided; assumed neutral baseline -> new_bullish.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided in input; contradiction_ratio reflects uncertainty/authority mix rather than observed directional conflict.",
 "VIP outliers with single-source echo risk were admitted as low-weight background only (stale suppression applied)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}