Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: HG
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: single_source_echo_risk_present
- generated_at: 2026-03-16T12:05:30Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B1 | Near-term copper sentiment is supported by demand-side energy-transition / grid-modernisation narratives and industrial-policy support signals, biasing prices higher over 6h–24h. | 63 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 58 |
| copper | B2 | Supply-chain / operations disruption narratives (miners, critical-minerals positioning) contribute to a higher perceived supply-tightness risk premium over the next 24h. | 57 | up | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
| copper | B3 | Trade-policy headline risk increases two-way volatility and can intermittently cap upside (risk-off impulse), raising reversal risk despite a bullish base case. | 44 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260316T120530Z-copper",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-16T12:05:30Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures (HG)",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term copper sentiment is supported by demand-side energy-transition / grid-modernisation narratives and industrial-policy support signals, biasing prices higher over 6h\u201324h.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"china_policy",
"inventory"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Supply-chain / operations disruption narratives (miners, critical-minerals positioning) contribute to a higher perceived supply-tightness risk premium over the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply",
"inventory"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Trade-policy headline risk increases two-way volatility and can intermittently cap upside (risk-off impulse), raising reversal risk despite a bullish base case.",
"probability_pct": 44,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"usd_strength",
"china_policy",
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1",
"B2"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "single_source_echo_risk_present",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "One-off / single-domain VIP outliers exist in the feed; treated as low-weight background only."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several admitted narratives show a high low-authority share; conviction capped vs directional tilt."
},
{
"flag": "policy_headline_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Trade-policy related narratives are recent and can cause fast sentiment swings; reversal risk elevated."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "A minority of supporting items are older than 72h and were downweighted (stale suppression applied)."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh supportive demand/supply-tightness signals persist without a new high-trust opposing policy shock."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Any additional trade-policy headline burst (esp. new constraints/tariffs) within the next 2\u20136 hours."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "A credible, very recent (<=2h) opposing macro/policy signal appears and is corroborated by a second source."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score falls back below bullish threshold (+20) with rising contradiction / thinning fresh evidence."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T12:05:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T13:05:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:05:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:05:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:05:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T15:05:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T15:05:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T16:05:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:05:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T17:05:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:05:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:05:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T18:05:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T19:05:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T19:05:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T20:05:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T20:05:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T21:05:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T21:05:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T22:05:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T22:05:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T23:05:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T23:05:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T00:05:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T00:05:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T01:05:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T01:05:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T02:05:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T02:05:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:05:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:05:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:05:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:05:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T05:05:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T05:05:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T06:05:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T06:05:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T07:05:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T07:05:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T08:05:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T08:05:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T09:05:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T09:05:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T10:05:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T10:05:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T11:05:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T11:05:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T12:05:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 36,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 16,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 5,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"State-change computed with no prior trend_state_memory provided; assumed neutral baseline -> new_bullish.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided in input; contradiction_ratio reflects uncertainty/authority mix rather than observed directional conflict.",
"VIP outliers with single-source echo risk were admitted as low-weight background only (stale suppression applied)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}