Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_risk_premium_sensitivity (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-16T22:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B-crude-001 |
Geopolitical and maritime chokepoint risk is maintaining an upward risk premium in Brent over the next 6–24 hours. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
58 |
| crude_oil |
B-crude-002 |
Supply-disruption narrative density (refinery outages / fuel supply interruption themes) is sufficient to keep short-term sentiment biased upward even if intraday volatility remains elevated. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
| crude_oil |
B-crude-003 |
Reversal risk is non-trivial because the dominant signals are headline-driven (spike-and-fade profile), so sentiment can flip quickly on a single high-authority counter-headline. |
55 |
mixed |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260316T220500Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-16T22:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Geopolitical and maritime chokepoint risk is maintaining an upward risk premium in Brent over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitics",
"shipping_freight",
"supply_disruption"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"credible de-escalation headlines reducing risk premium",
"unexpected evidence of ample supply/stock builds"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Supply-disruption narrative density (refinery outages / fuel supply interruption themes) is sufficient to keep short-term sentiment biased upward even if intraday volatility remains elevated.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"supply_disruption",
"inventory",
"shipping_freight"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"inventory data interpreted as loosening balances",
"demand-weakness macro headlines dominating the tape"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Reversal risk is non-trivial because the dominant signals are headline-driven (spike-and-fade profile), so sentiment can flip quickly on a single high-authority counter-headline.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitics",
"macro_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"continued corroboration of disruption risks across multiple high-authority sources without meaningful contradiction"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-crude-001",
"B-crude-002",
"B-crude-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "headline_driven_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Many dominant contributors show spike-and-fade temporal profiles, increasing whipsaw risk."
},
{
"flag": "authority_mix_skew_lower_tiers",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Several evidence bundles note authority mix skew to lower tiers; treat conviction as capped despite high narrative volume."
},
{
"flag": "geopolitical_risk_premium_sensitivity",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Maritime security / chokepoint themes imply sensitivity to sudden de-escalation/escalation headlines."
},
{
"flag": "vip_echo_risk_single_source",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source (echo-risk) and should not be overweighted."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh high-authority corroboration of disruption/chokepoint risk persists without meaningful counter-signals in the next 6 hours."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If additional rapid-fire geopolitical shipping/security headlines cluster within <=2 hours (headline shock regime)."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a high-authority de-escalation/inventory-loosening headline appears and contradiction ratio rises materially within 2 hours."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If evidence flow dries up (data sparsity) and sentiment reverts to neutral_mixed for >6 hours."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 13,
"acceleration_score": 11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -20,
"acceleration_score": -35,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 30,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -13,
"acceleration_score": -23,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 16,
"acceleration_score": 24,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -18,
"acceleration_score": -34,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 18,
"acceleration_score": 14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 18,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
"No v2 trend_physics/trend_state_memory fields provided; used available metadata (temporal_profile, timestamps, evidence_bundle stats) for conservative recency-weighting approximations.",
"No explicit contradictions supplied in 5B; reversal risk set to medium primarily due to headline-driven spike-and-fade profiles and mixed authority tiers.",
"Unmapped signal count: 0 (all admitted items mapped to crude_oil via geopolitics/supply/shipping context)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}