Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: late_breaking_invalidation_watch
- generated_at: 2026-03-16T14:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Fragile
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 1
- kill_switch_markets_count: 1
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-CO-001 | Near-term crude balances remain supply-tight as conflict/shipping disruption risk is being priced, keeping upside pressure on Brent. | 72 | up | accelerating | 6h | true | 78 |
| crude_oil | B-CO-002 | Coordinated/visible strategic reserve releases and emergency supply measures increase the chance of sharp pullbacks and upside caps even if the conflict persists. | 63 | down | accelerating | 24h | true | 78 |
| crude_oil | B-CO-003 | Demand-side softness (refinery run cuts / demand-destruction risk) is rising and can partially offset supply-shock narratives over the next day. | 48 | mixed | stable | 24h | true | 78 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-crude_oil-20260316T140500Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-16T14:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term crude balances remain supply-tight as conflict/shipping disruption risk is being priced, keeping upside pressure on Brent.",
"probability_pct": 72,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitics",
"supply_disruption",
"shipping_freight"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-002",
"B-CO-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Coordinated/visible strategic reserve releases and emergency supply measures increase the chance of sharp pullbacks and upside caps even if the conflict persists.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"inventory",
"policy_response",
"international_coordination"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-001"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Demand-side softness (refinery run cuts / demand-destruction risk) is rising and can partially offset supply-shock narratives over the next day.",
"probability_pct": 48,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"macro_demand",
"refining_throughput"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-001"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "high",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": true,
"late_breaking_alert": true,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CO-001",
"B-CO-002",
"B-CO-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "late_breaking_invalidation_watch",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Fresh, high-trust mitigation signals (strategic reserve releases / emergency supply actions) arriving during a strong bullish shock raise the probability of abrupt reversal/pullback."
},
{
"flag": "contradiction_spike",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Supply-shock bullish drivers are strong, but policy/inventory-response drivers are also strong and very recent."
},
{
"flag": "volatility_regime",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Geopolitical + shipping route disruption narratives imply wide price swings and gap risk."
},
{
"flag": "echo_risk_on_vip_outliers",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Several VIP outliers are single-source/low-diversity; treated as weak confirmation only."
},
{
"flag": "unknown_prior_state",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "low",
"details": "No prior market_state_table/trend_state_memory supplied; state_change set as new_bullish by default."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh supply-loss/shipping disruption confirmations continue to outnumber mitigation signals over the next 6 hours while net sentiment stays > +40."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If additional strategic reserve releases, ceasefire/de-escalation headlines, or confirmed restoration of flows arrive within a 2-hour window while contradiction ratio rises."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If mixed high-authority signals persist (simultaneous disruption + mitigation), expect whipsaw conditions (fragility >= 70)."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If thesis_kill_switch remains true for >6h without corroborating directional clarity (conviction fails to re-accelerate), treat as unstable regime."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If directional score compresses into [-20,+20] with no dominant fresh driver."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": [
"crude_oil"
]
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 21,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 18,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 66,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 86,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 80,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 72,
"bullish_pressure_score": 88,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 80,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68,
"bullish_pressure_score": 84,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 63,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 63,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 72,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 17,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 1,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to crude_oil from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"No v2 trend_physics/trend_state_memory fields provided; used legacy approximations from timestamps, temporal_profile heat, and velocity_hint.",
"Late-breaking mitigation signals (strategic reserve releases / emergency supply actions) treated as high-trust opposing pressure; thesis_kill_switch enabled to cap conviction and raise fragility.",
"VIP outliers and risk anomalies include multiple single-source items; used for risk/fragility only, not for increasing directional conviction."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}