Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: crude_oil
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 4
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_rising
- generated_at: 2026-03-16 06:05 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-CO-001 | Geopolitical escalation risk centred on Iran/region is adding near-term upside risk premium to Brent-linked crude pricing. | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 58 |
| crude_oil | B-CO-002 | Shipping-route and maritime chokepoint risk is supporting Brent (and spreads) over the next 24 hours via higher disruption probability and insurance/freight premia. | 60 | up | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
| crude_oil | B-CO-003 | Refinery outage risk (US) can temporarily dampen crude runs/demand, limiting immediate upside in crude futures despite geopolitical risk premia. | 46 | down | accelerating | 6h | false | 58 |
| crude_oil | B-CO-004 | Macro/FX policy noise is creating two-way volatility (range-trade behaviour) rather than clean directional follow-through. | 55 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_6b_20260316_060500Z_crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-16T06:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Geopolitical escalation risk centred on Iran/region is adding near-term upside risk premium to Brent-linked crude pricing.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Iran conflict / regional tension headlines",
"Policy/geopolitical signalling from major state actors",
"Risk-premium repricing behaviour in front-month crude"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Shipping-route and maritime chokepoint risk is supporting Brent (and spreads) over the next 24 hours via higher disruption probability and insurance/freight premia.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"IEA / market focus on critical routes and chokepoints",
"Maritime security narratives (Iraq / regional security)",
"Hormuz-focused singleton signals (low corroboration)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-004"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Refinery outage risk (US) can temporarily dampen crude runs/demand, limiting immediate upside in crude futures despite geopolitical risk premia.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Operational outage headlines (refining)",
"Near-term runs/throughput sensitivity"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-001",
"B-CO-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-004",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro/FX policy noise is creating two-way volatility (range-trade behaviour) rather than clean directional follow-through.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"US Treasury / USD fluctuation narrative cluster",
"BoJ/Fed-linked macro policy headline density"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CO-001",
"B-CO-002",
"B-CO-003",
"B-CO-004"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "contradiction_rising",
"level": "medium",
"detail": "Bullish geopolitics/shipping narratives are being partially offset by near-term refinery-outage/run-risk narratives."
},
{
"flag": "echo_risk_singletons_present",
"level": "medium",
"detail": "Several high-salience items (e.g., Hormuz/chokepoint, sabotage, niche logistics) are single-source/low-diversity and down-weighted."
},
{
"flag": "volatility_cluster_geopolitics_shipping",
"level": "high",
"detail": "Concentrated maritime + geopolitics themes imply jump-risk and headline-driven repricing."
},
{
"flag": "data_granularity_limit",
"level": "medium",
"detail": "No explicit inventory draw/build deltas or quantified supply changes provided; inventory-related trends treated as mixed/unclear."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If additional high-authority escalation/shipping-disruption confirmation appears within the next 6 hours while no confirming demand shock emerges."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If maritime chokepoint headlines intensify or if contradiction ratio rises above ~0.35 with rapid timestamp clustering."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh, high-trust evidence of demand destruction/refinery run cuts expands beyond a single operator/event."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If opposing signals balance out (directional score stays within [-20,+20]) for multiple hours with falling fresh evidence counts."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
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},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
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"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 90,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 92,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 66,
"bullish_pressure_score": 96,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 67,
"bullish_pressure_score": 97,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 67,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 63,
"bullish_pressure_score": 93,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 63,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 90,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 67,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 7,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to crude_oil from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"No trend_physics / trend_state_memory v2 fields provided in input; used temporal_profile, recency proxies, authority mix, and narrative tags for conservative weighting.",
"Inventory-themed items lacked explicit draw/build direction; treated as mixed/unclear (reduces conviction, increases fragility).",
"Very recent opposing operational/outage signal(s) increased short-term contradiction ratio but did not meet high-trust late-breaking kill-switch criteria."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}