Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: crude_oil
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 4
  • top_risk_flag: contradiction_rising
  • generated_at: 2026-03-16 06:05 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-CO-001 Geopolitical escalation risk centred on Iran/region is adding near-term upside risk premium to Brent-linked crude pricing. 62 up accelerating 6h false 58
crude_oil B-CO-002 Shipping-route and maritime chokepoint risk is supporting Brent (and spreads) over the next 24 hours via higher disruption probability and insurance/freight premia. 60 up stable 24h false 58
crude_oil B-CO-003 Refinery outage risk (US) can temporarily dampen crude runs/demand, limiting immediate upside in crude futures despite geopolitical risk premia. 46 down accelerating 6h false 58
crude_oil B-CO-004 Macro/FX policy noise is creating two-way volatility (range-trade behaviour) rather than clean directional follow-through. 55 mixed stable 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_6b_20260316_060500Z_crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-16T06:05:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Geopolitical escalation risk centred on Iran/region is adding near-term upside risk premium to Brent-linked crude pricing.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Iran conflict / regional tension headlines",
 "Policy/geopolitical signalling from major state actors",
 "Risk-premium repricing behaviour in front-month crude"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CO-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Shipping-route and maritime chokepoint risk is supporting Brent (and spreads) over the next 24 hours via higher disruption probability and insurance/freight premia.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "IEA / market focus on critical routes and chokepoints",
 "Maritime security narratives (Iraq / regional security)",
 "Hormuz-focused singleton signals (low corroboration)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CO-004"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Refinery outage risk (US) can temporarily dampen crude runs/demand, limiting immediate upside in crude futures despite geopolitical risk premia.",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Operational outage headlines (refining)",
 "Near-term runs/throughput sensitivity"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CO-001",
 "B-CO-002"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-004",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Macro/FX policy noise is creating two-way volatility (range-trade behaviour) rather than clean directional follow-through.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "US Treasury / USD fluctuation narrative cluster",
 "BoJ/Fed-linked macro policy headline density"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-CO-001",
 "B-CO-002",
 "B-CO-003",
 "B-CO-004"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_rising",
 "level": "medium",
 "detail": "Bullish geopolitics/shipping narratives are being partially offset by near-term refinery-outage/run-risk narratives."
 },
 {
 "flag": "echo_risk_singletons_present",
 "level": "medium",
 "detail": "Several high-salience items (e.g., Hormuz/chokepoint, sabotage, niche logistics) are single-source/low-diversity and down-weighted."
 },
 {
 "flag": "volatility_cluster_geopolitics_shipping",
 "level": "high",
 "detail": "Concentrated maritime + geopolitics themes imply jump-risk and headline-driven repricing."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_granularity_limit",
 "level": "medium",
 "detail": "No explicit inventory draw/build deltas or quantified supply changes provided; inventory-related trends treated as mixed/unclear."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional high-authority escalation/shipping-disruption confirmation appears within the next 6 hours while no confirming demand shock emerges."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If maritime chokepoint headlines intensify or if contradiction ratio rises above ~0.35 with rapid timestamp clustering."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh, high-trust evidence of demand destruction/refinery run cuts expands beyond a single operator/event."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If opposing signals balance out (directional score stays within [-20,+20]) for multiple hours with falling fresh evidence counts."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
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 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
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 },
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T03:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 90,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T03:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 92,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T04:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 66,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 96,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T04:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 67,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 97,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 67,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T05:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 63,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 93,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 63,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-16T05:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-16T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 90,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 67,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 7,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to crude_oil from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
 "No trend_physics / trend_state_memory v2 fields provided in input; used temporal_profile, recency proxies, authority mix, and narrative tags for conservative weighting.",
 "Inventory-themed items lacked explicit draw/build direction; treated as mixed/unclear (reduces conviction, increases fragility).",
 "Very recent opposing operational/outage signal(s) increased short-term contradiction ratio but did not meet high-trust late-breaking kill-switch criteria."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}