Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: event_driven_volatility
  • generated_at: 2026-03-15T20:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-001 Near-term uranium price pressure skews upward as supply-chain/geopolitical supply-risk narratives remain active while policy/innovation headlines reinforce medium-term demand expectations. 60 up accelerating 6h false 47
uranium B-UR-002 Over the next day, sentiment remains net supportive (bullish bias) with the main risk being event-driven volatility rather than a confirmed contrary signal-set. 66 up stable 24h false 47

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_uranium_20260315T203000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T20:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Near-term uranium price pressure skews upward as supply-chain/geopolitical supply-risk narratives remain active while policy/innovation headlines reinforce medium-term demand expectations.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "T-002",
 "T-001",
 "T-006",
 "T-008",
 "T-015"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Over the next day, sentiment remains net supportive (bullish bias) with the main risk being event-driven volatility rather than a confirmed contrary signal-set.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "T-002",
 "T-004",
 "T-035",
 "T-015",
 "T-024"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-001",
 "B-UR-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "event_driven_volatility",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Geopolitical/supply-chain driven narratives can gap sentiment quickly even without explicit contradictory signals."
 },
 {
 "flag": "authority_mix_low_tier_overhang",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Several supporting clusters show meaningful low-authority share and/or singleton VIP items; treat incremental signal as fragile until corroborated."
 },
 {
 "flag": "vip_echo_risk",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source; they are treated as peripheral/context rather than primary conviction drivers."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while fresh supportive policy/supply-risk updates persist and no high-authority opposing cluster emerges within the next 6\u201324h."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if geopolitical supply-risk headlines accelerate (frequency/recency) or if policy headlines introduce uncertainty."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Upgrade to reversal watch if a high-authority opposing signal appears within <=2h and contradiction ratio rises materially versus current baseline."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh supportive updates stall (>24h) while mixed/contradictory signals appear, downgrade to neutral."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T21:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": -3,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 31,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T21:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T22:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": -3,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 31,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T22:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T23:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 11,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": -4,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 31,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T23:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T00:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T00:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T01:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T01:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T02:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T02:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T03:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T03:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T04:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T04:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T05:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T05:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T06:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": -3,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 31,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T07:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T07:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T08:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T08:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T09:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T09:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T10:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T10:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T11:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T11:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T12:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T12:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T13:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T15:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T15:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T16:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T17:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T18:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T19:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T19:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T20:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 13,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 15,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "v2 trend_physics/trend_state_memory not present in input; used temporal_profile + evidence_recency_proxy + authority mix as proxies.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction_ratio held low and stable."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}