Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: event_driven_volatility
- generated_at: 2026-03-15T20:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-UR-001 | Near-term uranium price pressure skews upward as supply-chain/geopolitical supply-risk narratives remain active while policy/innovation headlines reinforce medium-term demand expectations. | 60 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 47 |
| uranium | B-UR-002 | Over the next day, sentiment remains net supportive (bullish bias) with the main risk being event-driven volatility rather than a confirmed contrary signal-set. | 66 | up | stable | 24h | false | 47 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_uranium_20260315T203000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T20:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term uranium price pressure skews upward as supply-chain/geopolitical supply-risk narratives remain active while policy/innovation headlines reinforce medium-term demand expectations.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"T-002",
"T-001",
"T-006",
"T-008",
"T-015"
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Over the next day, sentiment remains net supportive (bullish bias) with the main risk being event-driven volatility rather than a confirmed contrary signal-set.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"T-002",
"T-004",
"T-035",
"T-015",
"T-024"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "event_driven_volatility",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Geopolitical/supply-chain driven narratives can gap sentiment quickly even without explicit contradictory signals."
},
{
"flag": "authority_mix_low_tier_overhang",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several supporting clusters show meaningful low-authority share and/or singleton VIP items; treat incremental signal as fragile until corroborated."
},
{
"flag": "vip_echo_risk",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source; they are treated as peripheral/context rather than primary conviction drivers."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while fresh supportive policy/supply-risk updates persist and no high-authority opposing cluster emerges within the next 6\u201324h."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if geopolitical supply-risk headlines accelerate (frequency/recency) or if policy headlines introduce uncertainty."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Upgrade to reversal watch if a high-authority opposing signal appears within <=2h and contradiction ratio rises materially versus current baseline."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh supportive updates stall (>24h) while mixed/contradictory signals appear, downgrade to neutral."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T21:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": -3,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T21:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T22:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": -3,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T22:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T23:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T23:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T00:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T00:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T01:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T01:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T02:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T02:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T06:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": -3,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T07:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T07:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T08:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T08:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T09:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T09:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T10:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T10:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T11:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T11:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T12:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T12:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T13:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T14:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T15:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T15:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T16:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T17:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T18:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T19:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T19:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T20:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 13,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 15,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"v2 trend_physics/trend_state_memory not present in input; used temporal_profile + evidence_recency_proxy + authority mix as proxies.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction_ratio held low and stable."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}