Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_core_fundamentals (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-15T14:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Near-term NG futures retain an upside bias primarily driven by geopolitics and LNG supply-chain risk premia rather than confirmed weather/storage fundamentals. | 60 | up | stable | 24h | false | 73 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-002 | Volatility risk is elevated; headline-driven upside is prone to sharp mean reversion if geopolitical intensity fades without follow-through in physical balances. | 67 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 73 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-003 | Short-horizon downside reversal becomes more likely if a fresh, high-trust fundamental counter-signal emerges (storage build, warming forecast shift, LNG feedgas drop). | 45 | down | fading | 6h | false | 73 |
Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-2026-03-15T14:05:00Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T14:05:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Natural gas futures", "market_code": "natural_gas" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish Fragile", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 73, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "natural_gas", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-NG-001", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Near-term NG futures retain an upside bias primarily driven by geopolitics and LNG supply-chain risk premia rather than confirmed weather/storage fundamentals.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical risk concentration tied to LNG exporters / transit narrative", "supply disruption / infrastructure-risk framing (Ras Laffan, Russian infrastructure references)", "energy security / LNG complex attention (QatarEnergy, Cheniere mentions)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "thin direct evidence on US storage/temperature demand in current feed", "regulatory/price-control headlines outside core NG benchmark geography can dampen demand expectations" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-002", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Volatility risk is elevated; headline-driven upside is prone to sharp mean reversion if geopolitical intensity fades without follow-through in physical balances.", "probability_pct": 67, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "high headline velocity in geopolitics-related clusters", "mixed authority/echo risk across sources (higher fragility)", "limited confirmation from storage/weather arenas in the admitted trend set" ], "contradicted_by": [] }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-003", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Short-horizon downside reversal becomes more likely if a fresh, high-trust fundamental counter-signal emerges (storage build, warming forecast shift, LNG feedgas drop) because current support is narrative-heavy.", "probability_pct": 45, "direction": "down", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "data sparsity in core fundamental arenas (weather_demand, storage) within admitted evidence", "late-cycle weakening of net sentiment in the last hour bucket" ], "contradicted_by": [ "ongoing geopolitical risk premium can persist despite weak fundamentals" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 73, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-NG-001", "B-NG-002", "B-NG-003" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "data_sparsity_core_fundamentals", "severity": "high", "market": "natural_gas", "details": "Admitted signals skew to geopolitics/LNG narrative; limited direct weather_demand/storage datapoints in the provided 5B trend set." }, { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "market": "natural_gas", "details": "Headline-heavy drivers can reverse quickly; maintain reversal watch especially after peak sentiment buckets." }, { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "medium", "market": "natural_gas", "details": "Several supporting clusters show multi-day evidence spans; conviction capped despite fresh mentions." }, { "flag": "authority_mix_echo_risk", "severity": "medium", "market": "natural_gas", "details": "A meaningful share of supporting items include lower-tier/one-source outliers; fragility elevated." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "If fresh geopolitical/LNG disruption mentions persist AND no strong fundamental bearish counter-signal appears in the next cycle." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "high", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises (fresh opposing signals) or sentiment decays after a peak bucket." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If a high-trust storage/weather signal contradicts the current bullish narrative (e.g., warming shift, storage build surprise)." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "low", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "If evidence density remains sparse and net sentiment returns to neutral_mixed for multiple consecutive buckets." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T14:05:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T15:05:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 3, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 3, "net_sentiment_score": 3, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 14, "fragility_score_0_100": 82, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T15:05:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T16:05:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 3, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 3, "net_sentiment_score": 3, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 14, "fragility_score_0_100": 82, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T16:05:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T17:05:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 3, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 3, "net_sentiment_score": 3, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 14, "fragility_score_0_100": 82, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T17:05:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T18:05:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 7, "bearish_pressure_score": 3, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 82, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T18:05:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T19:05:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 7, "bearish_pressure_score": 3, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 82, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T19:05:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T20:05:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 7, "bearish_pressure_score": 3, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 82, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T20:05:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T21:05:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 8, "bearish_pressure_score": 3, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 16, "fragility_score_0_100": 81, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T21:05:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T22:05:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 8, "bearish_pressure_score": 3, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 16, "fragility_score_0_100": 81, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T22:05:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-14T23:05:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 8, "bearish_pressure_score": 3, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 16, "fragility_score_0_100": 81, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-14T23:05:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T00:05:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 9, "bearish_pressure_score": 3, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T00:05:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T01:05:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 9, "bearish_pressure_score": 3, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T01:05:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T02:05:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 9, "bearish_pressure_score": 3, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 17, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T02:05:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T03:05:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 9, "bearish_pressure_score": 3, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 17, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T03:05:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T04:05:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 7, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 3, "net_sentiment_score": 7, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T04:05:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T05:05:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 7, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 3, "net_sentiment_score": 7, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T05:05:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T06:05:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 7, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 3, "net_sentiment_score": 7, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T06:05:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T07:05:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 3, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 28, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T07:05:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T08:05:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 32, "fragility_score_0_100": 77, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T08:05:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T09:05:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T09:05:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T10:05:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T10:05:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T11:05:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 73, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T11:05:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T12:05:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 73, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T12:05:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T13:05:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 44, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T13:05:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T14:05:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": -10, "acceleration_score": -14, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 73, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 40, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 10, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 10, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 3, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": true, "notes": [ "Target scope locked to natural_gas (explicit). Single-market enforcement applied.", "No v2 trend_physics / trend_state_memory provided; used velocity_hint, temporal_profile, and evidence_recency_proxy as approximations.", "Core arenas requested (weather_demand, storage, pipeline_flows) are underrepresented in admitted evidence; conviction capped and fragility elevated.", "Some supporting clusters show long evidence spans (>72h) alongside fresh mentions; stale suppression applied to reduce persistence bias." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }