Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-timeseries_thinness (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-15T18:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-lithium-001 Over the next 24h, lithium futures have an upward bias as EV adoption/manufacturing-capacity narratives reinforce demand expectations more than near-term supply additions. 60 up accelerating 24h false 58
lithium B-lithium-002 Over the next 6–24h, lithium futures face upside-tail volatility risk from supply-chain policy shocks/resource-nationalism headlines. 55 up stable 6h false 58
lithium B-lithium-003 Near-term upside is capped by ongoing supply/processing build-out headlines which can re-anchor expectations of improving supply availability. 45 mixed fading 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260315T183000Z-lithium",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-15T18:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, lithium futures have an upward bias as fresh EV adoption/manufacturing-capacity narratives reinforce demand expectations more than near-term supply additions offset them.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "ev_demand: EV adoption / OEM electrification headlines (fresh within 24h in admitted trend evidence recency proxies)",
 "battery_supply_chain: battery manufacturing capacity expansion narrative (persistent background, intermittently refreshed)",
 "policy: US/Europe policy-support backdrop (background; mixed-quality evidence)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-lithium-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 6\u201324h, lithium futures face upside-tail volatility risk from supply-chain policy shocks/resource-nationalism headlines (even if single-source), which can tighten prompt availability expectations.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "inventory/supply_chain: export restriction / resource-nationalism risk signals (thin but can be price-sensitive)",
 "china_policy: policy sensitivity channel (indirect)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-lithium-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-003",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term upside is capped by ongoing supply/processing build-out headlines (e.g., first shipments / expansion financing / DLE progress), which can re-anchor expectations of improving supply availability.",
 "probability_pct": 45,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "battery_supply_chain: producer expansion / first-shipment narratives",
 "refining_capacity: processing/technology build-out (DLE) narratives"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-lithium-001",
 "B-lithium-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-lithium-001",
 "B-lithium-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-data_quality-low_authority_skew",
 "severity": "medium",
 "label": "Evidence mix skewed towards lower-authority domains in multiple admitted trend bundles; conviction capped."
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-contradiction-implicit-mixed-drivers",
 "severity": "medium",
 "label": "Demand-supportive EV narratives coexist with supply expansion narratives; medium reversal risk if supply headlines accelerate."
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-policy_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "label": "Policy/regulatory risk anomalies can create abrupt sentiment swings despite indirect linkage to lithium pricing."
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-timeseries_thinness",
 "severity": "high",
 "label": "Hourly timeseries is derived from limited explicit timestamped items available in the provided payload; treat shape as indicative, not exhaustive."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=24h) EV demand/capacity signals continue to arrive without equally-fresh supply-expansion counter-signals, directional score likely remains >= +20."
 },
 {
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional supply-disruption/resource-nationalism headlines appear (even single-source), fragility rises and intraday swings become more likely."
 },
 {
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If a high-authority, very fresh (<=2h) supply-increase/price-weakness signal emerges and contradiction ratio rises materially, bullish thesis may degrade to neutral_mixed."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
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 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
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 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T16:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T16:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T17:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T17:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-15T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-15T18:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 36,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 1,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Scope locked to single_market=lithium (explicit in flight_plan).",
 "No explicit trend_state_memory provided; state_change computed against neutral baseline (unknown_prior treated as neutral).",
 "Recency weighting emphasised admitted bundles with newest_timestamp on 2026-03-15; older dormant narratives downweighted.",
 "Unmapped_signal_count=0 (all admitted items mapped to lithium via EV demand / battery supply chain / policy channels)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}